1* Free Sharp Play on Bucs +1 -110
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans ML -122
The Houston Texans are 0-2 but have played two of the best teams in the AFC in the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. They opened 0-3 last season before making the playoffs, so they won't panic with this start. But they will be playing with a sense of urgency on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are also 0-2 and will be playing with a sense of urgency. They've also lost to two of the best teams in the AFC in the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. But a deeper dive into the box scores shows the Texans deserved better, while the Colts deserve to be 0-2.
The Texans were only outgained by 28 yards by the Bills but were -2 in turnovers in a 36-31 home loss in Week 1. They dropped what would have been the game-winning INT. Last week, they actually outgained the Bengals by 107 yards but lost 20-6. That was one of the most misleading finals of the season. The defense is still one of the best in the NFL, and the offense deserved more points against Cincinnati, which also has a solid defense this season.
The Colts lost 41-23 at home to the Ravens in Week 1. It was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Colts were outgained by 255 yards. They didn't deserve to go to OT with the Chiefs in Week 2, either. They were outgained by 194 yards by Kansas City in a very misleading final.
This Indianapolis defense is clearly a problem and by far the worst unit on the field this week. The Colts allowed 506 yards and 8.2 yards per play to the Ravens and 523 yards and 6.9 yards per play to the Chiefs. It's a tired defense as well after being on the field for 76 plays against the Chiefs, which will carry over into this week.
I also think this Indianapolis offense is broken after losing WR Alec Pierce to a potential season-ending injury. Daniel Jones looks like a shell of his former self and is hesitant to run coming back from injury. His legs are his biggest weapon, and he's just not a very good pocket passer. He has rushed four times for 14 yards this season.
The Texans have owned the Colts going 5-0 SU in the last five meetings. The best unit on the field is by far this Houston defense, and they will shut down Jones and the Colts again this week. Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.
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Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 43
The Key: There will be 15 MPH winds for this division rivalry between the Steelers and Bengals Sunday. These are 2 of the better defenses in the NFL, and the defenses look way ahead of the offenses to this point. The Steelers are broken offensively managing just 13 points from their offense against the Falcons and 3 points against the Patriots. The Bengals have an improved defense and just held the Texans to 6 points last week. They don't have to rely on Burrow to win shootouts anymore as this is the best defense they have had since he has been there. Aaron Rodgers looks washed and knows his best chance of keeping the Steelers competitive is to lean on the defense and ball control offense. Pittsburgh held Atlanta to 13 points and New England to 20. Take the UNDER.
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1* Free Pick on Commanders +7
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
Sunday's Free NFL Pick
PLAY ON: Steelers +3.5
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The NFL 3* Power system comp play today is on the Tennessee Titans plus the points at 1 eastern as Rob notes that week 3 or less home favorites of 4 or less like the Giants are 0-12 straight up and to the spread since 1990 if they are off a road dog loss and had less than 55 yards rushing, vs an opponent like the Titans that has more than 80 yards rushing. The Giants are on short rest here off the MNF Blowout loss to the Rams. NY lost QB Jackson Dart and now have to go with Turnover prone Winston. The Titans lost a close one in Philly last week and are a live dog here. Play on Tennessee today. GL Rob V-
SU: 0-12 ( Ag NYG)
ATS: 0-12
Sep 08, 1991 - Sun 2 1991 Bengals Oilers home 0-0 0-6 7-7 0-17 7-30 -2.0 51.0 -23 -25.0 -14.0 -19.5 5.5 L L U 0
Sep 14, 1997 - Sun 3 1997 Giants Ravens home 0-7 12-7 8-0 3-10 23-24 -2.5 44.0 -1 -3.5 3.0 -0.25 3.25 L L O 0
Sep 26, 2004 08:36 Sun 3 2004 Dolphins Steelers home 0-3 0-0 0-3 3-7 3-13 -1.0 33.0 -10 -11.0 -17.0 -14.0 -3.0 L L U 0
Sep 18, 2005 04:05 Sun 2 2005 Cardinals Rams home 3-7 3-3 3-7 3-0 12-17 -1.0 44.5 -5 -6.0 -15.5 -10.75 -4.75 L L U 0
Sep 25, 2005 01:02 Sun 3 2005 Bills Falcons home 3-7 10-10 3-0 0-7 16-24 -2.5 37.0 -8 -10.5 3.0 -3.75 6.75 L L O 0
Sep 20, 2009 01:00 Sun 2 2009 Chiefs Raiders home 3-0 0-3 0-3 7-7 10-13 -2.0 39.0 -3 -5.0 -16.0 -10.5 -5.5 L L U 0
Sep 14, 2014 01:04 Sun 2 2014 Giants Cardinals home 0-10 7-0 7-0 0-15 14-25 -2.0 41.5 -11 -13.0 -2.5 -7.75 5.25 L L U 0
Sep 15, 2014 08:31 Mon 2 2014 Colts Eagles home 7-3 10-3 3-14 7-10 27-30 -3.0 53.0 -3 -6.0 4.0 -1.0 5.0 L L O 0
Sep 25, 2016 01:02 Sun 3 2016 Bengals Broncos home 7-3 7-13 0-0 3-13 17-29 -3.5 42.0 -12 -15.5 4.0 -5.75 9.75 L L O 0
Sep 26, 2016 08:30 Mon 3 2016 Saints Falcons home 7-7 10-21 8-10 7-7 32-45 -3.0 54.0 -13 -16.0 23.0 3.5 19.5 L L O 0
Sep 15, 2019 01:00 Sun 2 2019 Bengals Fortyniners home 7-14 3-10 0-10 7-7 17-41 -1.0 46.0 -24 -25.0 12.0 -6.5 18.5 L L O 0
Sep 25, 2022 04:25 Sun 3 2022 Seahawks Falcons home 10-10 10-7 3-10 0-0 23-27 -1 42 -4 -5 8 1.5 6.5 L L O 0
Sep 27, 2026 01:00 Sun 3 2026 Giants Titans home - - - - - -2.5 38.5
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Rams -2
Sean McVay has been great at getting his team ready on a short week throughout his time with the Rams. He will be helped by the fact that the Rams had extra time off after playing in Australia in Week 1. The Rams also blew out the Giants 28-6 on Monday Night Football so they could rest their starters late in the 4th quarter. They outgained the Giants 481 to 182 for the game. I think we are getting the Rams at a discount as a short road favorite in Denver Sunday night due to their loss to the 49ers in Australia. if they were 2-0, they would be at least a 3-point favorite here. The Broncos are getting a lot of credit for their 20-13 win over the Jaguars. But they trailed 13-3 in the 2H and expended a lot of energy for their comeback. This came after a blowout 31-10 loss to the Chiefs in the opener on MNF, so they were on a short week last week as well. The Broncos were outgained 392 to 176 by the Chiefs. They will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days while the Rams will be playing their 3rd game in 18 days, which is a hidden advantage here. The weakness of the Broncos is their run defense and the Rams will be able to exploit it. Give me the Rams.
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Our selection is on the Houston Texans to defeat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:
Both Houston and Indianapolis have started with 0-2 record this season, searching for that first win.
The line has come down to -1.5 after Nico Collins got announced out. But, the Colts struggled against K9 and will have trouble stopping Monty.
The Texans won both games against the Colts last season as well.
Indianapolis is at home today. But, it looked really bad at home against Baltimore in week one.
The play is on Houston.
