Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting to make the playoffs right now.  They currently sit in 10th place in the West just one game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot.  I know I'm going to get a max effort out of them, which is why I'm willing to back them even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Indiana Pacers have just been going through the motions now that they are basically eliminated from playoff contention.  They are 3.5 games out of 10th place with 5 games to go, and they have realized they weren't going to the postseason for a few games now and are playing like it. The Pacers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses by 13 points or more.  

The Pacers were already a terrible defensive team, but they have completely quit guarding people allowing 149, 127 and 143 points in their last three games, respectively.  They are without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (20.7 PPG, 10.4 APG) and could be without Myles Turner (18.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.3 BPG), who is questionable.

The Thunder are 10-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games this season.  After being 9.5-point favorites or more in each of their last three games, this is a much more reasonable price on OKC as they basically just have to win the game to cover.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

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15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -143

I'll back the defending champs to bounce back from an upset loss to the Chicago White Sox in their opener.  A lot of times that opening game is a distraction when they receive their rings.  They should be refocused tonight for Game 2.

The Astros have a big advantage on the mound with Cristian Javier, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Javier went 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.948 WHIP last season with 194 K's in 148 2/3 innings.  He had a great spring with a 2.31 ERA and 0.943 WHIP allowing 3 earned runs in 11 1/2 innings.

Lance Lynn went 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA in 21 starts for the White Sox last season.  The 36-year-old was not good in the World Baseball Classic and is once again out of shape heading into this season.  Lynn had a 4.30 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in spring training with 7 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.

Javier allowed one run in 5 innings of a 4-3 win over the White Sox in his lone career start against them, which came last season.  Lynn is 0-6 with an 8.37 ERA in his last six starts against the Astros, allowing a whopping 31 earned runs and 10 homers in 33 1/3 innings.  Enough said.  Bet the Astros Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/76ers UNDER 225.5

Two teams that play at a snail's pace square off tonight when the Toronto Raptors visit the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Raptors rank 25th in pace while the 76ers rank 27th.  This game will be played with great intensity defensively as both are trying to improve their playoff positioning.

This has been a low scoring series as the UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 229 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings, including 212 or fewer in all six unders.  In their two most recent meetings this season, the 76ers and Raptors combined for 205 and 202 points.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six games overall.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Lakers/Timberwolves NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 232.5

The Los Angels Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing with playoff intensity as they are both trying to just get into the playoffs still.  That means the defensive intensity will be there, and I like the UNDER as a result.

The Timberwolves have struggled offensively getting Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert to mesh together.  They have scored just 99 points against the Warriors, 119 against the Kings and 100 against the Suns in their last three games.  But they have been elite defensively, allowing 96 to the Warriors, 115 to the Kings and 107 to the Suns which are three of the best offensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers have also stepped it up defensively of late allowing 118 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games.  The UNDER is 8-5 in their last 13 games overall.  With the way these teams are playing right now, this number is simply too high.

That's especially the case when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in all six and 213 or fewer in five of the six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -14.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Seven of their last eight losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 40 on Wednesday and by 17 in their two most recent meetings.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing all these players.

The Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games with seven losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Friday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -15.5

The Golden State Warriors finally flipped the switch to playoff mode and are a dangerous team right now.  They have gone 4-1 in the last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  They are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest and motivated to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs.  They will not take the San Antonio Spurs lightly as a result.

The Spurs are clearly tanking right now.  They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 35 at New Orleans, by 36 at Milwaukee, by 12 at Washington, by 44 at Boston and by 11 at home to Utah.  They have lost those five games by an average of 27.6 points per game, which is why I'm not scared to lay this big number with the Warriors.

The Spurs' injury report is laughable at this point with eight players on it.  They will be without Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan and are likely to rest Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford for injury management.  The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, who has been out for a couple months now.

San Antonio is 1-12 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 0-7 ATS following four consecutive losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 31-8 SU & 26-12-1 ATS at home this season.  The Spurs are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games.  The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.  Bet the Warriors Friday.