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MLB Free Picks & Baseball's Guaranteed Best Bets of the Day
Free Pick on Pirates
Ben Burns continued his BRILLIANT baseball campaign with an UNDEFATED Monday card, including a 9-1 LAUGHER with the White Sox, his "PERSONAL FAVORITE." Ben's top-rated MLB plays are on a long-term HISTORIC RUN which has produced $86,000 IN PROFIT. Here, he offers an opinion from Game 2 of the Marlins/Sox series:
I won with the White Sox in yesterday's opener. They jumped all over the Marlins right out of the gate and cruised to a 9-1 victory. I like their chances again on Tuesday. While Smith has enjoyed a fine season thus far, his success has come primarily at home. In fact, he's got a stellar 2.23 ERA in seven home starts compared to a poor 4.64 ERA in eight road starts. Like Smith, Covey has been far better when pitching in his home park. In three home starts, he's got an excellent 2.20 ERA. The Sox won his last two starts here by scores of 6-1 and 4-2. A look at Smith's recent starts shows that the Marlins are 4-5 his past nine starts. A closer look reveals that three of those four victories came by only a single run. In other words, the Marlins would be 1-8 in Smith's last nine starts, if being asked to lay -1.5 runs in each. The Marlins average just 3.6 runs per game, lowest in the majors. That makes winning by more than a run quite difficult. Consider Chicago on the run-line.
1* Free Play on Twins +111
It’s been bombs away for Minnesota all season, including five homers in last night’s series-opening win against the visiting Yankees (64-35). The Twins (61-38), who lead the league in home runs with 187, will try to further that mark and keep a hold on their three-game AL Central lead when they take on the Yankees again tonight.
To do so, Minnesota will likely have to get to New York’s Domingo German (12-2, 3.38), who starts this evening. The Yankees right-hander is looking to keep his club from suffering another three-game losing streak.
For the Twins, right-hander Kyle Gibson (9-4, 4.02 ERA) gets the nod. In his past four starts, Gibson has allowed a total of just six earned runs, and is fresh off a victory in his last outing against a hot Oakland team.
Gibson will have plenty of firepower for support; last night’s five homer performance is that eighth time the club has launched five or more home runs in a game. Currently spearheading Minnesota’s bats is DJ LeMahieu, who is on a nine-game hitting streak that’s included three dingers and six RBIs on a 15-for-39 run.
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: San Diego Padres -130
The San Diego Padres are still very much alive in the wild card race. But they need to get going here if they are going to have a shot at making the playoffs, and their schedule gets real easy coming up with the next three series against the Mets, Giants and Orioles.
The Padres have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Mets behind Chris Paddack. The rookie is 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.465 WHIP in his last three.
Jason Vargas has been decent this season at 4-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 starts for the Mets. However, Vargas has come back down to reality here of late, going 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 1/3 innings.
Paddack pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings with 11 K’s in his last start against the Mets on May 6th. Vargas allowed 9 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres in 2018. The Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 home games off a road trip of seven or more days. Bet the Padres Tuesday.
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1* Free Sharp Play on Cubs -103
My money is on the Cubs to cash in a win here against the Giants. Yu Darvish is finally pitching up to his contract and I'll take a shot that he keeps it going against SF. In Darvish's last 2 starts he's allowed 0 runs on 4 hits with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Cubs are 33-18 in 51 games this season as a favorite of -100 to -150 and 41-14 in their last 55 when revenging a 1-run loss. Bet the Cubs -103!
1* Free MLB Pick on Tampa Bay Rays +154
I know Tampa Bay is in a bit of a funk right now, but this is too good a price to pass up on the Rays at home with the pitching matchup we got going. Boston's Chris Sale had a decent outing last time out against Toronto, but prior to that he allowed at least 5 runs in 3 straight starts. He's just not the same guy this year. Red Sox have only won 7 of his 20 starts.
Rays will counter with Yonny Chirinos, who flies under the radar. The guy has a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 14 starts. He's not been intimidated at all by Boston and all their stars. Chirinos has a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Red Sox.
Boston is also a mere 1-4 in their last 5 off a win and have lost 4 straight on the road when Sale is starting against a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay!
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Milwaukee Brewers -132
The Brewers are pretty cheap at home tonight as they look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Reds last night in which they were one out away from winning, but allowed a 2-run homer. Now they go with their best starter tonight in Zach Davies, who is 8-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 20 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his last three starts. Tanner Roark is 5-6 with a 3.97 ERA in 19 starts for the Reds, including 0-0 with a 7.16 ERA in his last three starts. Milwaukee is 13-3 in Davies’ last 16 starts against a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 5-0 in Davies’ last five home starts against the Reds. Milwaukee is 22-7 in Davies’ last 29 home starts against a team with a losing record. Give me the Brewers.
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10* FREE MLB PICK (Twins +113)
I'll take my chances here with Minnesota as a home dog. We cashed in on the Twins as a home dog last night with our free pick. This is just too good a price to pass up with a team like Minnesota on their home field. This might seem like an even pitching matchup given that Yankees starter Domingo German is 6-1 on the road and Twins starter Kyle Gibson is 6-1 at home. The thing is, German has a not so great 4.53 ERA in his 8 road starts and the road slate has been very favorable to say the least. Gibson on the other hand has a strong 3.78 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in his 9 home starts. Also, Gibson has an ugly 6.50 ERA in 9 starts vs New York, but he's faced him 3 times in the last 3 years and has allowed a mere 3 runs on 12 hits with 20 K's in 16 2/3 innings. Give me the Twins +113!
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FREE PLAY on Brewers -132
1* on Phillies -138
Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Philadelphia Phillies -141
The Key: The Detroit Tigers are 12-45 in their last 57 games overall. They are also 4-26 in their last 30 home games and just can’t be trusted to even show up right now. The Phillies are still alive in the NL East and wild card races and have a lot more to play for right now. And they will be sending ace Aaron Nola to the rubber tonight. Nola is 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 21 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 3 outings. Matt Boyd started strong this season for the Tigers, but he has faded amidst trade rumors. Boyd has allowed at least 4 runs in 6 consecutive starts and at least 3 runs in 8 straight. His ERA has risen from 2.85 to 4.13 during this stretch. Detroit is 4-22 as a home dog of +125 or higher this season. Take Philadelphia.
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