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These same pitchers opposed each other a few weeks ago, at Seattle. Minor delivered a gem. He allowed three hits and one run through seven complete innings. He also recorded 13 K's. On the other hand, Leake got rocked. In five innings, he allowed nine runs (5 earned) on 10 hits. Texas won 15-1. Leake also got hit hard in his lone start against the Rangers last season, also allowing five earned runs. This season, Leake has a 4.15 ERA on the road. Conversely, Minor has a dominant 1.88 ERA at home. Note that Seattle relievers have a combined 6.07 ERA and 1.70 WHIP away from Safeco. Consider Texas.
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MIKE LUNDIN'S DIAMONDBACKS @ PADRES FREE PICK
The San Diego Padres have dropped three in a row and six of their last seven, but I still like the price we get on them as a home favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday night.
Padres rookie right-hander Chris Paddack (3-2, 1.99 ERA) has allowed just four runs on 10 hits in 25 2/3 innings home at Petco Park. The Friars have won six of his first eight starts in the big leagues, including a 2-1 triumph at Arizona on April 12 when Paddack fanned five through 5 1/3 frames of one-run ball.
The D'Backs turn to Luke Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA) who pitched opposite Paddack in that very contest and was charged with both runs. Manny Machado is 3-for-6 with a pair of homers off Weaver.
Free pick on San Diego Padres.
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10* FREE MLB PICK (Phillies +127)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia as a road dog against the Cubs in Monday's series opener. This one means a little more than others, as Jake Arrieta will be making his first start since he left Chicago. There's no doubt in my mind that Arrieta will be way up for this game and I expect him to deliver a big time performance.
You also have the Cubs coming off an emotional 6-5 win at Washington on Sunday Night Baseball and a very inconsistent Yu Darvish on the mound. Some might be excited about Darvish's last start, where he had 11/0 K/BB ratio, but he's still 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in 9 starts overall.
NL teams with a starter that has a season WHIP of 1.550 to 1.650 are just 9-30 (23%) over the last 5 seasons when that starter is off an outing where he didn't walk a batter. Give me the Phillies +127
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1* Free Sharp Play on Yankees -182
My money is on the Yankees to cash in an easy win at Baltimore on Monday. This one shouldn't need a whole lot of explaining. New York is a legit World Series contender and the Orioles are without a doubt one of the least talented teams in the league. Even with all the guys the Yankees have out, they still are playing the better baseball of the two. They will have J.A. Happ on the mound for this one and he's got a 1.96 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 3 road starts. Bet the Yankees -182!
Jack’s Free Pick Monday: New York Yankees -1.5 (-123)
The New York Yankees have won five of their last six to improve to 28-17 on the season. Aaron Boone deserves manager of the year to this point with what he’s been able to do with all these injuries. Now, the Yankees should continue beating up on the lowly Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore has gone just 2-9 in its last 11 games overall to drop to 15-31 on the season. Eight of those nine losses have come by two runs or more, including a pair of losses to the Yankees in a recent double-header. I’ll back the Yankees on the Run Line today instead of laying -200 on the money line.
J.A. Happ has been at his best on the road this season, going 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in three starts away from home. Happ is 8-7 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 12 career starts against Baltimore. Andrew Cashner is 0-4 with a 5.22 ERA in his last five starts against New York.
Happ is 10-1 in road games vs. teams who average 0.5 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. The Yankees are winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot. New York is 7-1 in Happ’s last eight road starts. The Orioles are 1-11 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.
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Free Pick on Giants
Free Play on Orioles +175
1 Unit FREE PLAY on San Diego Padres -141
The San Diego Padres lost three in a row over the weekend and come into this game Monday looking to get back on track at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The good news is that the Padres send Chris Paddack to the mound, who has been their best starter at 3-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in eight starts. Paddack is 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in four home starts. He faced the Diamondbacks on April 12th and yielded one run in 5 1/3 innings of a 2-1 victory. Give me Paddack and the Padres.
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Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Texas Rangers -144
The Key: The Texas Rangers come in playing well having won 4 o their last 5 while scoring a combined 36 runs during this 5-game stretch. It’s hard to believe the Mariners were 13-2 at one point. They have gone just 10-24 since to fall to 23-26 on the season. And the Rangers have a big advantage on the rubber tonight with Mike Minor, who is 4-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 9 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 4 home starts. Mike Leake is 3-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 9 starts and 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 5 road starts. Minor struck out 13 Mariners in 7 innings of a 15-1 victory on April 27th in his lone start against them this season. Seattle is 1-13 against a starter that strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. Take Texas.
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FREE PLAY on Astros -220
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