Brandon Lee

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Utah +1) 

I'll take my chances here with the Utes as a home dog against the Huskies. This just feels like the perfect spot to jump on Utah, who no one would have thought would be sitting last in the Pac-12 after they knocked off Kentucky a little over a month ago. 

Thing is the Utes 1-4 start isn't all that shocking, as they were dealt an absolutely brutal schedule to start out conference play. After defeating Oregon State at home by 12 they had a tough 5-point loss at home to Oregon on just 1 day of rest. They then had to play 3 straight road games against the likes of Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State. 

The perception simply couldn't be much worse, when in reality the best case was probably 2-3 during that stretch. Either way, this is do or die for the Utes and I like their chances against a struggling Washington team that has lost 5 of their last 7. Huskies have lost both Pac-12 road games and are still dealing with the loss of point guard Quade Green. 

Utes are 16-5 ATS last 21 at home after failing to cover in 3 straight games, 16-6 ATS last 22 at home after playing 4 straight games as a dog and 12-3 ATS last 15 at home off 2 straight losses by 10 or more. Give me Utah +1! 

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40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 228)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 228 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Nets. Since Kyrie Irving has returned from injury the Nets have gone just 1-4 with their only win at home against a Hawks team that was down their best player (Trae Young).

In their 4 losses they have allowed no fewer than 117 points and three of those they allowed the opposing team to shoot 50% or better. After going through the motions last night at the Knicks, I expect a much more aggressive LA offensive attack in this one. 

A big reason for that is Irving is back on the floor for Brooklyn, as I don't think there's a guy LeBron enjoys beating more than Irving after what he did to get out of Cleveland. I think the Lakers could score 130 with ease in this one. 

I also think Brooklyn will score here as we just aren't going to get anything close to a max effort defensively from LA playing on no rest in their 4th straight on the road, especially with a big game at Philly on deck Saturday. Give me the OVER 228! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Indiana +4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Indiana as a home dog against the Spartans. Most people have Michigan State in a class of their own in the Big Ten and they are sitting on top the conference at 6-1, but I don't think they are that much better than the rest of the league. 

What people fail to realize with the Spartans strong start to Big Ten play is the favorable schedule. Michigan State has played just two road games in Big Ten play and one of those was at Northwestern, which they only won by 5. The other was at Purdue, where they got absolutely annihilated 71-42. 

Indiana is one of those teams that is a completely different monster at home than on the road. Hoosiers are 3-0 at home in Big Ten play and 1-3 on the road. Sure two of those home wins were against bottom feeders Nebraska and Northwestern, but they did beat Ohio State by 12 at home. THey also had a 16-point win at home against a really good FSU team in non-conference play. Give me the Hoosiers +4! 

40* NCAAB SITUATIONAL ATS SLAUGHTER (Ohio St -8) 

I'll take my chances here with Ohio State laying 8-points at home. This line isn't going to make much sense to a lot of people. You got a Buckeyes team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games laying almost double-digits to a team they lost to by 13 on the road. That's the Big Ten for ya and if you look at how different the Gophers have been on the road compared to at home you would see why this line makes perfect sense. 

Minnesota has played 8 conference games, 4 at home and 4 on the road. In their 4 Big Ten home games their offense is averaging 77.8 ppg. In their 4 road games they are scoring a mere 57.0 ppg in regulation (did have 78 in 2OT at Purdue). Maybe the most telling game is their matchup at Iowa, where they scored just 52 against a bad Hawkeyes defense. 

Another thing to note with Ohio State and their recent struggles is almost all of their losses came away from home. In fact, they are 10-1 at home, where they are outscoring teams by nearly 23 points/game and giving up just 56.4 ppg. Give me the Buckeyes -8!