Bryan Power

8* Over Lakers/Rockets (8:05 ET): When these teams met early in the season, they have little difficulty in going Over a much higher total. Thus, I have no problem taking the Over here. The Lakers lost that early season meeting, 124-115, in Houston. It was part of an 0-3 start to the season for them, but they're the ones that have turned things around, going 17-7 SU since. Meanwhile, the Rockets are still trying to dig themselves out of a hole. They're two games below .500 entering play tonight and second from the bottom in the Western Conference. 

Under has admittedly been the way to go w/ the Lakers over the last month. The Under is 16-4 in their L20 games, a stretch which dates all the way back to Halloween. Their last two games have stayed Under the total, but both came against low-scoring teams, Memphis and Miami . This should be a much different style of game w/ Houston likely trying to push the pace. Also, it's not as if the Lakers are a bad offensive team. They average 113.1 PPG on 47.4%. You may have heard of LeBron James, who has seen improvement in his three-point shooting since coming to LA. James and the Lakers should exploit a Rockets team that is 25th in defensive efficiency.

Houston found itself down double digits at home in the first half to Portland Tuesday night. They roared back for a 111-103 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak. They'd also gone 2-7 SU and ATS the last nine games. I have to say that it's been rather shocking to see how far the Rockets have fallen offensively after being neck & neck w/ Golden State last year in terms of efficiency and points per game. But there's still a lot of time to rectify that fall and the team's home games are already 7-4 to the Over, even if their last one didn't quite get there. Again, the total was much higher when these teams played early in the year (237.5) and the game went Over despite terrible FT shooting from both sides and the Lakers missing 24 of 32 three-point attempts. Six of the last eight meetings have gone Over. 8* Over Lakers/Rockets

10* Over Bulls/Magic (9:35 ET): I like both side and total in this game, which takes place in Mexico City. Let's start w/ the total, which I like a little bit more. In one of the more bizarre trends you'll find, the Bulls & Magic have gone Under the total 11 straight times when facing off. I'm going to call for that to end Thursday as this O/U is way too low for pretty much any matchup, by 2018 standards. I realize the Magic are coming off a terrible 76-point showing in Dallas while Chicago is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. But when you look at the season-long numbers for both sides, it adds up to an Over.

The Under is 8-2 in the Bulls' previous 10 games. They too are off a couple "stinkers" offensively. First, they were held to 77 pts in a humiliating 56-pt home loss to Boston. Then, perhaps equally as embarrassing was getting held to 89 points at home by Sacramento. There's a lot of turmoil going on w/ the Bulls right now as the players haven't exactly taken a "liking" to interim HC Jim Boylen. But both Kris Dunn and Bobby Portis are back from knee injuries and we should start to see some improvement, at least on the offensive end. 

Orlando is off a dreadful shooting night against Dallas where they finished at 36% overall from the field and missed 20 of 28 three-point attempts. You have to figure they're going to shoot better here, even in a relatively unfamiliar environment. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, in particular, should have a bounce back game after he scored a season-low eight points on 4 of 15 shooting vs. Dallas. The Magic were also w/o both Mo Bamba (suspended) and third-leading scorer Evan Fournier in that one. Both are expected back Thursday and like Chicago, we should see a rather dramatic increase offensively from the Magic compared to the last game. They average 104.6 PPG while giving up 107.9. Chicago averages 101.8 PPG while giving up 112.9. Both of those points scored vs. allowed averages work out to an Over here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

8* Orlando (9:35 ET): In the writeup for the total, I didn't talk much about the fact this game is being played in Mexico City. While I think it's going to adversely affect both teams on the defensive end, look for the Magic to be less affected and ultimately pull out an easy win. Chicago is a complete mess right now w/ the Boylen situation and players threatening to boycott practice. Overall, the Bulls have dropped 13 of their last 15 games w/ one of the wins coming at home over Phoenix. This is easily one of the worst teams in the league and it's either them and it's hard to fathom taking them getting such a short number. I'll lay the points. 

Orlando has lost its last three games, the last two in blowout fashion. The streak began w/ a tough loss in overtime to Denver, at home. Maybe getting away to Mexico City is what this young team needed. As mentioned in the writeup on the total, the Magic weren't at full strength for the Dallas game and they shot the ball terribly. But, save for Jonathan Simmons, they're back to a full compliment of players here and should shoot the ball a lot better. Despite the three-game losing streak, the Magic are still in 8th place in the East. If they want to be a playoff team, then they need to win games like this. For the year, the Magic are 12-6 ATS vs. teams allowing at least 106 PPG. 8* Orlando 

8* Under Clippers/Spurs (8:35 ET): We've gotten a glimpse of the "Spurs of old" as in their last two games (both wins), they've held the opposition to just 97 and 86 points respectively. That's a far cry from when Greg Popovich's team was torched for 127 PPG over the previous six games, a stretch where the Over went 6-0. While their defensive efficiency rating has slipped (tied for 26th), perhaps we're seeing the start of a turnaround. For tonight, it helps that the Spurs are at home where they allow "only" 106.6 PPG as opposed to the 118.1 PPG they give up on the road. 

The Clippers have been one of the real surprises in the league so far. At one point, they head the best record in the Western Conference! But after needing OT to get by lowly Phoenix Monday night, the Clips got blown out in Toronto 123-99 the following night. It was their third SU loss in the last four games and they're 0-4 ATS during that same stretch. They've been held under 100 pts in all three losses and have averaged just 98.5 PPG in regulation factoring in the game against the Suns. Right now, LA is w/o Lou Williams, who is their third leading scorer despite being a reserve. 

San Antonio shot a blistering 62% from three-point range in Tuesday's 111-86 win over Phoenix. I wouldn't look for that number to be repeated here. Even though they are shooting the ball really well from distance for the season, the Spurs are still at "only" 38.9% behind the arc. Nor would I look for Bryn Forbes to approach the career-high in points (24) he set vs. Phoenix, a night which included him going 5 for 5 on three-point attempts. Through the years, the Spurs are 6-1 Under in home games where the total is 220 pts or higher. These teams played a high scoring game last month (116-111 Clippers win), but I expect different this time around. 8* Under Clippers/Spurs

10* Kansas City (8:20 ET): This one is for "all the marbles" in the AFC West. Well, perhaps that statement is a bit premature. After Thursday night, both the Chargers and Chiefs have two games to go. If Los Angeles were to win Thursday night, then they'd be tied w/ KC atop the division at 11-3 and we'd have to see how things play out.  But if the Chiefs win here, they clinch the division as they'll have a two-game lead on the Bolts and own the tiebreaker. One of the major stories going into this showdown is how KC has absolutely OWNED the rivalry. Head to head, they've beaten the Chargers NINE consecutive times (last loss was 2013). The most recent win was Week 1, 38-28, as a 3-point dog. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS during that nine-game SU win streak. 

When the Chiefs beat the Chargers back in Week 1, little did any of us know the kind of trans-formative season that QB Patrick Mahomes was set to have. Mahomes is rewriting the record books, becoming just the third 1st or 2nd year QB to throw for over 4,000 yds and 40 TD passes in the same season. Dan Marino and Kurt Warner are the two others. Mahomes, now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, has thrown for 4,300 yds and 43 touchdowns. Both Marino and Warner made it to the Super Bowl in their 4000+ yard, 40+ TD seasons. Under Mahomes direction, the Chiefs have the top offense in the league, averaging 36.2 PPG. They are unbeaten at home and getting this game on a short week is a huge advantage. 

You might recall that I played against KC last week as they squeaked by Baltimore, 27-24 in overtime. I was a winner as the Ravens were +7. Why the quick switch to the Chiefs, especially in light of how critical I was of their defense in last week's analysis? Well, I don't think LA is going to be able to replicate the kind of pressure Baltimore's top ranked defense got on Mahomes. Also, the Chargers have a major injury concern at RB w/ Melvin Gordon and possibly Austin Eckler both out. Without Gordon, they were able to beat both the Steelers and Bengals. But remember they were down 23-7 at the half in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a bad team they only beat by five points. While I'm a fan of what the Chargers have done this season, they've really beaten up on a lot of bad teams. They are just 3-7 SU the L10 times they've been an underdog of a field goal or more. 10* Kansas City