Bryan Power

10* Over Indians/White Sox (7:08 ET): Admittedly, betting a Shane Bieber start to go Over the total sounds risky. The Indians starter for Sunday has been lights out through three starts with a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. All three starts have gone Under and the Indians are 3-0 as well. Bieber has a ridiculous 35 strikeouts in 20 ⅔ IP, which is the third most for any pitcher in MLB history through his first three starts. Furthermore, Cleveland is now 14-2 Under in all games this season!

However, as the Tribe showed yday, they are capable of putting some runs on the board. They scored seven times in the win, evening this series up at one game each. Now they’d previously been shut out Friday. But it was just two games ago that they hung 13 runs on the Reds. I do believe this lineup will start to “get going” and it’s worth noting the only other time White Sox starter Lucas Giolito started here at home, he gave up seven runs in 3 ⅔ IP. 

Now I’m well aware that Giolito has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality starts, one of them being six shutout innings vs. these Indians. But that was on the road. The White Sox are allowing more than 6.0 rpg at home thus far and the bullpen ERA here at Guaranteed Rate Field was a woeful 5.36 entering yesterday’s game. It’s a low total Sunday night and I see this game sneaking Over. 10* Over Indians/White Sox

10* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): This line seems to be a complete overreaction to the Sixers losing Ben Simmons for the rest of the season. Simmons, who dislocated his kneecap in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards, is a very good player. But I never saw much chemistry between him and the Sixers’ other star, Joe Embiid. Sure enough, Philly won its first game w/o Simmons, defeating Orlando 108-101 Friday and covering the spread as 4.5-point chalk.

Portland suffered a BRUTAL loss yesterday, falling to the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers 122-117, a game where the Blazers were bet heavily and ended up closing as favorites. Even as a 3.5-pt dog, I felt the Blazers were being a bit overvalued. Closing as a favorite, they were definitely overvalued. The same scenario exists here as my numbers would have Philadelphia favored by 3.5 points if Simmons were playing. This looks like another overreaction towards Portland. 

The Blazers are one of the teams fighting to get that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. That’s what made yesterday’s result all the more tough to swallow. Remember that this is a team that’s been outscored per 100 possessions and is playing the second game of a B2B (likely without Hassan Whiteside). The Blazers are seven games below .500 for the year and are every bit as bad on the road as the Sixers. In Philly’s win over Orlando on Friday, Al Horford stepped up big with 21 pts and 9 rebounds. Don’t be surprised if that happens again. Portland is just 3-8 SU in the 2nd game of a B2B this year. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Wizards/Thunder (12:35 ET): The Wizards probably didn’t even need to bother showing up in the bubble here in Orlando. They faced an uphill climb to even force a play-in game and a depleted roster made those chances even slimmer. Sure enough, the remote hope of making the playoffs has already been dashed as the Wiz are 0-5 SU and eliminated from contention. They have nothing left to play for except pride at this point and I don’t expect pride to have much of an effect these next three games. 

Oklahoma City is battling for seeding in the Western Conference. They are currently tied with Utah for 5th. Obviously, with home court advantage no longer a factor, it doesn’t matter as much where the Thunder finish. But they’d still like the best possible matchup. They’re also looking to bounce back from a humiliating defeat on Friday where they lost 121-92 to Memphis. Proud to say I was on the Grizzlies in that one, which marked the second time in three games where OKC lost outright as a favorite.

These teams have combined to go 6-3 Under since the restart with the Wizards having gone Under in three straight. Of who’s left on the roster, Rui Hachimura is Washington’s leading scorer at just 13.4 PPG. The team is averaging just 105.4 PPG on 44% shooting here in Orlando. Oklahoma City is missing Dennis Schroeder right now and that has left an undue burden on Shai Gilegous-Alexander, whose shooting has suffered with more playing time (32.4% L3 games). Like Washington, the Thunder have yet to score more than 113 pts here in the bubble. They are actually shooting WORSE than the Wizards here. Under is 19-5 this season in OKC games w/ a total of 220+ pts. 10* Under Wizards/Thunder

8* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Padres were unable to rally Saturday, falling just short against the D’backs by a score of 3-2. They’d previously won the series opener, 3-0, in a game where we backed them. I’ll back ‘em again here Sunday for many of the same reasons I did Friday. Arizona is not a good team; in fact they have the 2nd worst run differential in the entire National League right now at -25. Outside of one big explosion vs. Houston earlier in the week, the D’backs haven’t scored more than five runs in a game this year. 

Madison Bumgarner looks to be toast, compounding problems for the visitors. He’s got an 0-3 TSR and 7.05 ERA through three starts, one of those being a loss to San Diego. Going back to late last year, Bumgarner has an 0-7 TSR his L7 starts. Adding to the concern here is that Bumgarner’s velocity is down (on his fastball) as is his KW ratio (only 1.83).

San Diego, who is 5-0 in series openers thus far and just 3-7 in all other games, will turn to Dinelson Lamet on Sunday. Lament has already faced the D’backs once and he held them to one run in five innings, a game the Padres ended up winning 12-7. Lamet has a 1.72 ERA across three starts and we should see him pitch well again Sunday. Lamet has allowed just four runs total so far, one of them unearned. 8* San Diego

8* St. Louis (3:05 ET): Saturday determined the 1-seeds in the respective conferences, but Sunday is all about who gets seeded 3rd and 4th. In the West, St. Louis and Dallas have each opened 0-2. With all the upsets that transpired over in the qualification series, even the loser here is going to get a weaker than expected Round of 16 playoff opponent. It comes down to the simple fact that I think the Blues are the better team.

St. Louis came into the bubble having finished first in the regular season with 94 points, two more than Colorado and eight more than Vegas, the two teams that will play Saturday to determine the #1 seed. Losses to the Avs (2-1) and Golden Knights (6-4) mean the Blues can finish no higher than 3rd when the playoffs get going proper. Worth noting that the loss to the Avs came at the buzzer and then the Blues led the Golden Knights 2-0 early in the 2nd period. So being 0-2 is a tough pill to swallow.

As for Dallas, they too blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas (ended up losing 5-3) and then were shutout by the Avalanche 4-0. This was one of the coldest teams in the league at the time of the shutdown. They’re actually now on an 8-game losing streak going back to March. The Stars’ goal differential for the season is now negative while the Blues can still claim to be +29. I concede that St. Louis hasn’t looked great in either game and Vladimir Tarasenko’s injury is a concern. But they’ve taken six of the last seven meetings w/ Dallas, who isn’t in the same league as either Colorado or Vegas. 8* St. Louis