Bryan Power

10* Colorado (10:05 ET): The Avalanche have by far and away the best goal differential in the Western Conference at +42. The next closest team is St. Louis (+18) and only two teams in the East (Boston, TB) can claim better YTD goal differentials. Scoring differential is a metric I value across all sports as it tends to be a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record. So keep an eye on the Avs’ goal differential when you handicap the Western Conference playoff picture moving forward.

That the Avs are so far in front of the field in goal differential, yet only in third place in their own division is perplexing to say the least. Note it’s a very tight race in the Central right now w/ St. Louis, Dallas & Colorado all separated by just three points. But make no mistake about it, after losing three in a row - all at home - the Avalanche desperately need to win tonight’s game.

The Islanders have not had a successful road trip. They’ve scored a grand total of one goal so far, losing all three games. I successfully faded them Monday afternoon in Arizona. While there’s been no losing streak of longer than three games this year for the Isles, facing a team that averages 3.7 gpg at home hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. NY’s scoring average on the road is now down to 2.4 gpg. Colorado is 11-5 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game (lost 4-3 to Tampa Bay Monday). 10* Colorado

10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota (8:00 ET): If you recall, we went Under on South Dakota State’s last game and came away with a winning ticket. That game was played Sunday against IPFW and the Jackrabbits held their opponents to just 64 points on 37.5% shooting. The current Summit League leaders are now on a six-game win streak and have held their L5 opponents to an average of 65.6 PPG on 37.5% shooting. During that time, only one team (Denver) has scored more than 64 pts or shot better than 37.5% against them.

SDSU hits the road Wednesday to face North Dakota, who like IPFW is a middle of the pack team in this conference. The Fighting Hawks did just record an 86-83 victory at Western Illinois, who is one of the worst teams in the Summit League. Before that win & cover (were -2), ND had covered only one of its previous nine games. The first meeting with South Dakota State did not go well as the Jackrabbits rolled to an 87-66 win thanks to shooting 50% from the field. Fortunately, SDSU does not score nearly as much on the road as they do at home.

While North Dakota may have some issues defending, the Under remains 7-1 this year for South Dakota State when the O/U line is 150 to 159.5. Also note that North Dakota’s last game went into overtime. It was 73-73 at the end of regulation, so the final score is a little misleading. The Fighting Hawks shot just 41.3% overall and were a dreadful 5 of 23 from three-point range. What “propped” their point total up was them going 29 of 33 from the FT line. They also shot poorly from 3-pt range in that 1st meeting w/ SDSU, which should repeat itself here as the Jackrabbits are holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc this year. 10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota

8* Butler (6:30 ET): I’ve got much respect for Seton Hall, who leads the Big East right now w/ a 10-3 SU record in conference play. But the Pirates have dropped two in a row, including one at home to Creighton, and this is a tough spot laying points to a fellow ranked team. Butler certainly won’t be lacking for motivation as it has revenge for a 78-70 home loss to “The Hall” last month and things have gone a little “sideways” recently for the Bulldogs as they are just 4-6 SU their L10 games. 

Butler is coming off a bad loss to Georgetown where they were 12.5-point home favorites. They lost 73-66. While HC LaVall Jordan has been quick to point to defensive issues, it’s the offense that’s hurt the Bulldogs more of late. They’ve failed to hit 70 pts in three straight games as well as five of the last six. This is a team that still ranks 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and makes 53.3% of its two-point attempts. The good news is that it was only two games ago that the Bulldogs held a lead as large as 17 points against a good Xavier team. 

Seton Hall HC Kevin Willard admitted after Saturday’s loss at Providence that he’s dealing with “some guys with bad attitudes right now.” That’s never a good sign, especially this late in the season. Curiously, the Pirates are shooting below 30% from three-point range at home. That’s a big break for a Butler team that admittedly struggles to defend beyond the arc. But they are holding opponents to 43.3% from two-point range. Virtually all of the recent head to head meetings have been close (three decided by 2 pts or less!) and w/ Butler 5-1 ATS L6 visits here, I’m taking the points. 8* Butler