Bryan Power

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): With the Bucks leading 74-57 in the third quarter of Game 5, I was feeling pretty good about having laid the points. Then Kevin Durant struck. But as great as Durant was, that was a Milwaukee gag job. The Bucks now return home facing another potential early postseason exit. But I’m laying the points again. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up in Milwaukee this season. Kyrie Irving is out. James Harden was ineffective Tuesday night. Durant, coming off perhaps his best game EVER, won’t be that good again. 

Lost in the virtuoso performance from Durant (1st player to EVER do 45-15-10 in a playoff game) is that Harden simply wasn’t very good in his surprise return to the lineup. He finished with just five points on 1 of 10 shooting, including 0 of 8 from three-point range. Both Durant and Harden played 46+ minutes with the former going the full 48. That was certainly a curious decision from HC Steve Nash. I understand leaving Durant in, given how hot he was. But playing a hobbled Harden that long seems unwise. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo was clearly outshined by Durant, but did turn in his third straight game with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. He came up small down the stretch, but it shouldn’t have come to that as the Bucks were up double digits most of the game. At home, with the season on the line, the Bucks should start to see their shots falling more. They’ve averaged just 98.8 PPG this series, on 43% shooting. They averaged 120.1 PPG during the regular season. In particular, the three-point shots should start to fall. We started to see that in Game 5 (13 of 32) and I think it continues here. 10* Milwaukee

10* San Diego (8:40 ET): These two teams have been trending in different directions of late and surprisingly it’s Cincinnati that’s doing better. The Reds have won six in a row after sweeping both Colorado and Milwaukee. San Diego was just swept out in Colorado and is falling a bit off the pace in the rugged NL West. So this is a big weekend for the heavily hyped Padres and I see them coming through on Friday, led by starter Joe Musgrove. They are calling today “Re-Opening Day 2021” as it will be the first home game with full capacity this season. 

Back on May 29th, the Padres owned baseball’s best WL record. June has not been kind to them as they’ve gone 4-11 including the three straight losses out in Denver. But a return to Petco Park should help turn things around. Visiting teams average only 3.1 runs per game here while batting .199. Only two teams allow a fewer number of rpg than San Diego. Musgrove has a 2.82 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 12 starts, so he definitely deserves better than a 6-6 TSR. He has the franchise’s first ever no-hitter to his credit already in 2021. In his L6 starts, his ERA is 1.91 and his WHIP is 0.818. 

Wade Miley goes tonight for Cincy and he too has thrown a no-no this season. His numbers are fairly comparable to Musgrove’s, but quite as good. Overall, the Reds’ pitching staff can’t compare to San Diego’s. They are one of eight teams allowing 5.0 or more runs per game. It’s a nice run that they are on, but the last two wins were both 2-1. The Padres are 11-5 vs. LH starters, so I like them against the southpaw Miley. 10* San Diego

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): St. Louis is coming off a three-game sweep of Miami. They are 6-0 against the Marlins this season, but below .500 against everyone else and a -27 YTD run differential doesn’t speak well to their future prospects of maintaining a winning record. Note the Cards scored just seven runs in that series with the Marlins and only nine the last five games overall. They won the L2 games in the final at-bat. I think this team is a lot worse than the overall record shows. 

Furthermore, Thursday’s starter John Gant has been REALLY shaky of late with a 9.25 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. Gant has had a high WHIP all season (currently 1.651) so his TSR has always been a bit of a mirage. He lasted only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out and gave up five runs. Don’t be fooled by the fact he allowed just one hit. He walked five batters. The start before that saw Gant allow seven runs in four innings. Atlanta is averaging a solid 5.4 runs per game at home, so they should do some damage at the plate tonight. 

Coming off B2B 10-8 losses to Boston, the Braves hand the baseball to Charlie Morton here. Facing St. Louis rather than the Red Sox is a break for Morton. I say that knowing full well that Morton has a poor career record vs the Cardinals. But there is the fact Atlanta scored 16 runs in B2B losses while St. Louis has scored just seven runs total in three straight wins. The Cardinals are 2-9 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. I like the Braves a lot in this spot. 7* Atlanta

8* Over D’backs/Giants (3:45 ET): San Francisco is looking to finish off a four-game sweep here. They’ve beaten Arizona by scores of 5-2, 9-8 and 13-7 thus far. There’s been an obvious increase in overall scoring each day and while that may not hold true again this afternoon, I still think this one goes Over the total. 

Arizona is absolutely atrocious. They’ve lost 22 straight road games, equaling a MLB record. So you know the hitters will be pressing today. It’s not just the road where this team struggles, however. They’ve lost 36 of their last 41 overall games, including 27 of the last 29. There's some optimism for today in that Zac Gallen, who is second on the team in ERA, returns to start Thursday’s game. But after missing more than a month, Gallen may not be as effective as he once was. I certainly see him giving up some runs to a SF lineup that is averaging 9 runs and 13 hits per game in this series.

Kevin Gausman has pretty much been “lights out” for the Giants this year. The righty is 7-1 in 13 starts with a 1.43 ERA and 0.771 WHIP. His numbers get even better at home and over his L3 starts. But Arizona has seen him before this year, back on May 25th, so expect them to fare better than they did that first time around. In day games, the D’backs are averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. But over the L6 games, they are allowing an average of 8.5 rpg! That alone would send this one Over the total. 8* Over D’backs/Giants