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|Indians vs White Sox||OVER 7½ -101||Top Premium||5-4||Win||100||Show|
|76ers vs Blazers||76ers +2½ -105||Top Premium||121-124||Loss||-105||Show|
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PICKS IN PROGRESS
8* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): This is the finale of a four-game series which has seen Atlanta take two of the first three. The Braves swept a doubleheader on Sunday (both games only 7 innings per 2020 rules), winning 8-0 and 5-2. So this is a big revenge spot for the Phillies. At 11-6, the Braves are off to a great start (+27 run differential) but before yday they were only 2-4 on the road. They are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and it’s worth noting the favorite has won all three games in this series.
Desperate to earn a series split, the Phillies will hand the baseball to Aaron Nola. Nola had some hard-luck his last start, receiving a no-decision despite holding the Yankees to just one run (a solo HR) and three hits in 6 IP. He also had 12 strikeouts. But the Phillies still lost 3-1. Nola is an impressive 10-5 w/ a 2.94 ERA in 18 career starts vs. Atlanta, so I expect him to pitch well again here.
Sean Newcomb starts tonight for Atlanta. The southpaw failed to go a full five innings in either of his first two starts. Both of those were at home. He allowed six runs in the first one, only to get bailed out by the offense in an 11-10 Braves win over the Mets. He wasn’t as fortunate in his last start with the team losing 2-1 to Toronto. The Braves had one other shutout prior to yday and wound up losing their next game. History repeats itself here. 8* Philadelphia
10* Texas (9:05 ET): We’re back to fading Seattle, something that I’ve done regularly and with plenty of success so far this season. The Mariners picked up a rare win on Sunday, defeating the Colorado Rockies 5-3. That snapped a three-game losing streak, though the M’s are still just 6-11 on the year and their -38 run run differential is the worst in baseball. Having to travel to face a surging Texas team, I see the M’s resuming their losing ways on Monday.
The Rangers are off a sweep of the Angels over the weekend. They held the Halos to just six runs in the three games as it certainly seems the new ballpark here in Arlington is a lot more pitcher-friendly. Thus far, the Rangers are allowing fewer than 3.0 rpg at home. Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.64 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Seattle (all w/ Minnesota), starts today’s game. Though winless in two 2020 starts, Gibson has a 2.75 ERA and has given up just 3 ER in 11 IP.
Seattle’s pitching staff has been far less stingy as they came into yday’s game having given up an average of 6.3 rpg. That number jumps to 7.3 on the road, which is problematic to say the least. Starting tonight will be Justin Dunn, who is one of several young (and unproven) arms in the starting rotation. So far, Dunn has a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in two starts. The Mariners bullpen has been equally terrible. All signs point to a romp for the home team here. 10* Texas
10* Under Nuggets/Lakers (9:05 ET): The Lakers have first place all sewn up in the Western Conference. You can tell as they’ve lost three in row, the latest coming to Indiana (116-111) as they could not overcome T.J. Warren’s 39 points. LeBron James missed the game before that, a 113-97 loss to the Rockets. I’m not sure what to expect from LA these next two games now that they have nothing to play for.
Denver, meanwhile, is fighting for seeding. They are still 3rd after beating Utah 134-132 in double overtime Saturday. It is unlikely that they will move from that position, which is where they were entering the restart. All five Nuggets games thus far have gone Over the total, though I’ve got a bone to pick with that last one. As mentioned previously, the game went to DOUBLE overtime. But it should have been done in regulation. The Nuggets had some sloppy execution in the final 10 seconds, allowing Utah to tie it up. That cost me an Under.
Denver got Jamal Murray back for Saturday’s game, but Will Barton and Gary Harris remain out. After the bad beat w/ the Under vs. Utah, I’m doubling down here as the Lakers have shot poorly here in the bubble with four games at 42% or less from the field. At the same time, the Lakers just allowed their highest FG% so far in the bubble and should be better defensively tonight. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are just plain due for an Under. 10* Under Nuggets/Lakers