Bryan Power

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates were humming right along to start the season, but they ran into a hot Philadelphia team over the weekend. They were swept by their cross-state rival and have now lost six of seven. But they'll return home on Tuesday for a short two-game Interleague set w/ Detroit, who has surprisingly won five of its last seven games. But those were all played in the Motor City and here they'll be playing under NL rules, which means the loss of the DH from the lineup. Even w/ the designated hitter, the Tigers are only averaging 3.0 rpg while batting a collective .193 so far. With those kind of numbers, it's difficult not to want to fade, especially considering the numbers we've seen from starter Jordan Zimmerman as well. Go w/ the Bucs.

The one time Pittsburgh has won over the last week was w/ tonight's stater Chad Kuhl on the mound. He went six innings against Colorado last Wednesday and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) on four hits. Both of Kuhl's home starts have been pretty good so far while he's struggled in his two on the road. Luckily, tonight's game is at PNC Park where he's allowed just three runs in 11 IP. Plus, as stated before, he'll be facing a weakened Tigers lineup that doesn't exactly score much on the road anyway. Pirates' pitching has done a good job overall limiting visiting teams from scoring this year as they're allowing just 3.7 rpg at home (nine games) w/ an opp BA of .222. This has all the makings of a bounce back spot for the Bucs here. 

Detroit starter Zimmerman has struggled mightily thus far in four starts. Though he has yet to lose a single decision, he has a 7.72 ERA and 1.592 WHIP. He allowed three home runs in his most recent start, Thursday vs. Baltimore, but somehow the Tigers were able to overcome that and win 13-8. Again though, that was at home. These teams faced off in the opening series of the year and the Pirates swept in Detroit, including a 13-10 win over Zimmerman where the right-hander surrendered four runs. Meanwhile, Kuhl won his start in that series, the following day as a part of a doubleheader. If the Tigers couldn't beat the Pirates in three tries at home, it stands to reason they're in a lot more trouble on the road where the rules weaken their everyday lineup. Each team's last series isn't really indicative of the overall view here. 8* Pittsburgh

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Thanks to a hot start, the Mets continue to lead the NL East, but it's been 10 days since they've won B2B games and signs of regression are in the air. While 14-6 overall, they've only outscored the opposition by 16 runs. That latter number is less than the two surprising division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta and in fact ranks only fifth in the Senior Circuit. Starting Tuesday, they'll be at one of the teams ahead of them in run differential, that being St. Louis. The Cards just swept Cincinnati for a second time this year and while they're only 6-8 against teams "not named the Reds," I believe tonight's opener is likely to go their way. Look for starter Lance Weaver to bounce back from a rough outing last Thursday, which happens to be the ONLY game the Cards have lost over the past week.

These teams opened the season against one another w/ the Mets taking two of three at Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom pitched NY to victories in the first two games of that series, but the Metropolitans could not overcome Weaver in the series finale, losing 5-1. That happened to be the Mets' lone loss in the first 12 games, but they've since fallen back down to Earth, losing five of their last eight. Over the weekend, they dropped two of three to Atlanta (Sunday rained out) w/ the one win coming in extra innings. Moving forward, I seriously doubt the Mets are going to be able to continue scoring 5.0 rpg on the road as their team batting average away from Citi Field is just .215. Starter Zach Wheeler did not pitch in that first series vs. St. Louis, but is 0-2 all-time against the Cardinals w/ a 4.76 ERA.

Wheeler has started only two times thus far, but he'll start to come up in the rotation more often now that Matt Harvey has been jettisoned. The good news for Wheeler is that he was great in his first start, which saw him go seven innings and allow just one run on two hits. But that was also against sorry Miami. Last time out, he did offer a quality start by going six innings and allowing just three runs. But he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2), which isn't a good sign. Meanwhile, Weaver has a 17-3 KW ratio and should bounce back from the rough effort vs. the Cubs last week. In his first three starts, Weaver allowed 2 ER or less and just 4 total. His one home start thus far saw him hold Arizona to just one run on three hits in 6 1/3 IP. 8* St. Louis

8* Under Spurs/Warriors (10:35 ET): San Antonio was able to "circle the wagons" in Game 4 and thus delay the inevitable (that being elimination) by winning 103-90 as home underdogs. They did so w/ HC Greg Popovich missing a second straight game due to the death of his wife. An emotional a win as that might have been, I don't think many are looking for the Spurs to last much longer (no Kwhai Leonard remember) and tonight's probably the night that their season ends. However, I don't think for a second that they won't go down w/o a fight. Golden State, who trailed by as many as 17 pts in Game 4, is w/o Steph Curry and thus has its own set of issues right now. I realize it was only "one bad shooting night" in Game 4, but I like this potential close out game to stay Under the total. 

The Warriors missed 21 of 28 three-point attempts Sunday and shot just 37.8% overall from the field. In each of their three victories in the series, they were north of 50% overall. But they are just 14 of 61 from three-point range the L2 games. That's where they obviously miss Curry, but let's also not forget that San Antonio is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Only them and Utah allowed fewer than 100 PPG during the regular season and the Spurs also finished fourth in defensive efficiency. Game 4 snapped a seven-game Over streak for the Spurs' in the postseason when trailing in a series. But remember that this particular iteration doesn't really have the "horses" past ones did and I sincerely doubt we're going to see the same type of production we saw from Manu Ginobili, in particular, here that we did on Sunday. 

Lost in this great four-year run the Dubs have had is that they are a good defensive team. It was another top 10 finish in efficiency this year and they're holding San Antonio to just 98.2 PPG (on 42.3% shooting) in the series. In their last six games (includes last two reg season games), the Spurs have not scored more than 103 pts. They were fortunate to make 15 of 28 three-point attempts in Game 4, but that was after going a somewhat horrific 11 of 61 from behind the arc the previous two games. I realize that this is a low total from Golden State's perspective, but I think they'll hold the Spurs in severe "check" offensively tonight and won't need anywhere close to their "usual" amount of scoring to close out the series. 8* Under Spurs/Warriors

10* Under Bucks/Celtics (7:30 ET): Have the oddsmakers simply underestimated these teams ability to score? Through the first four games of this best of seven series, it would certainly appear that they have. The Over is a perfect 4-0, though Game 4 just barely snuck Over after Giannis Antetokounmpo's game winning putback gave the Bucks a 104-102 win on Sunday. We're all knotted at two games a piece in this series w/ the other trend (besides the Over) being that the home team has won every game. The scene now shifts back to Boston where the Celtics won the first two games, but they remain undermanned and have been outshot in every game in the series. The Celtics managed only 35 1st half points in each game at Milwaukee and while there might be a natural "jump" in scoring w/ them being back home, I believe it to be minimal at best and it will be defense that carries them, if they are to win here. Take the Under.

You have to remember that the strength of this Celtics team in the regular season was defense. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allowed just 100.4 PPG, which was third fewest in the entire league (fewest in the Eastern Conference). However, that defense has been under fire in this series as the Bucks have shot a stunning 54.2% in the four games, averaging 108.2 PPG. While the loss of Kyrie Irving is huge for the Celtics, that should not be having an adverse effect on the team defensively. Yet going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has gone Over in eight straight games. Totals have generally been low during this time, but note Celtics' games are still only averaging 205 PPG for the season. 

I can't see Milwaukee continuing to shoot the ball as well as they have moving forward. In that regard, look for Celtics' HC Brad Stevens to make adjustments. I have little faith in a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season, beyond Antetokounmpo. They were one of the top Over teams in the league during the regular season, but I've been really surprised as to how well they're shooting in this series. The Bucks' bench also scored 31 pts in Game 4, a number that should decrease significantly tonight. As for Boston offensively, that's where they do miss Irving and the "next man up" mentality isn't always going to work. Jaylen Brown did have 34 points Sunday (career-high), but note that Game 1 "hero" Terry Rozier had only 10. Looking at this roster, I just don't see a "reliable" scoring option on a night to night basis. The Celtics have shot below 42% in three of the four games in this series. 10* Under Bucks/Celtics