Bryan Power

8* Run Line LA Angels (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels at +1.5. What shaped up as a vital series for the home team has turned into a blown opportunity, at least thus far. Minnesota, who leads the Angels by 1.5 games in the chase for the AL's 2nd Wild Card, was just swept by the Yankees. However, the Halos have been unable to make up any ground during this time due to the unfortunate draw of playing Cleveland (who's 26-1 L27 games!) this week. Still, I thought this series set up well for LA as they avoid both of the Indians' top two pitchers, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. They've certainly competed, even cashing on the RL for me last night, but yet to come away w/ a victory. Not sure if that'll change after this afternoon, but the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels still have revenge from a prior sweep by the Indians, back in July. Not only are they 0-5 against the Tribe in 2017, but they are 1-11 against them since the start of last season (3-15 L3 seasons). My view has always been that it's increasingly difficult in today's game to sweep the same opponent two straight times. So this is the Angels' last shot. It's interesting that after being bet to a small favorite and virtual pick 'em (sharp money!) the L2 days, the Halos almost certainly will close as a decided dog today. That's despite that this spot will have them sending their best pitcher to the mound, that being Parker Bridwell, who has a 15-2 TSR and is by far and away #1 in net units among all starting pitchers at +16.1 for the season. Here at home, Bridwell threw six shutout innings in his last start, allowing only three hits as the Angels beat Cole Hamels and the Rangers, 2-0. 

All of Cleveland's starters have been lights out during this 26-1 run of theirs, but today will see Danny Salazar make just his second start since the streak began. The first try, which took place back on Sept 5, did not go so well. He lasted all of two-thirds of an inning and gave up four runs. Cleveland still managed to come back and win, 9-4, helped by the fact they were facing the sorry White Sox. But still, Salazar (who has been working out of the bullpen lately) is definitely on "thin ice" and probably not long for the starter's role come playoff time. He was taken out of the rotation for a reason and that's he simply had not been that effective this year. He has a 5.57 ERA and 1.631 WHIP on the road this year. Again, it's interesting to note that Cleveland's historic run pretty much began right after Salazar was removed from the rotation. The Angels need this game badly, much more than the Indians, and I have to believe their offense (Mike Trout specifically) is due to get back on track. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): This is a very big series, rife w/ playoff implications. The Cubs, who "sleepwalked" through the 1st half of the season, now seem "safe" as a probable playoff entrant as they lead the division by 3.5 games and have a better record than the second place Wild Card team (Colorado). That's thanks to a seven-game win streak, which ended yday, but still the defending World Series Champs appear to be in good shape heading into what is a revenge spot vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew are attempting to chase down either the Cubs or the Rockies (1 gm back of Wild Card), but suffered their own loss yday, in walk-off fashion no less. I'm sure the Cubs remember getting swept at Wrigley by the Brewers earlier this month and they'll be eager to return the favor. 

Tonight's series opener marks the return of Jake Arrieta to the Cubs' rotation. The former Cy Young winner last pitched on September 4th when he tweaked his hamstring in a disastrous 12-0 loss to the Pirates. But I'm not concerned as he reportedly checked out well in a bullpen session Tuesday and has posted a 1.98 ERA since the All-Star Break. Arrieta missed the last series w/ the Brewers, but is 2-0 against them in '17, having allowed just 3 ER in 13 IP w/ 16 strikeouts. After being swept at home by Milwaukee, the Cubs rattled off those seven straight victories before Jon Lester simply "did not have it" last night and they lost 8-1 to the Rays. But even after scoring just three runs in two games at Tropicana Field, the Cubs' offense has still managed to average over 7.0 rpg since that aforementioned sweep. 

Zach Davies will get the nod here for Milwaukee. Though he has an 8-6 team start record here, he has not pitched particularly well at home this season as he has a 5.67 ERA and 1.588 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed six runs to Miami (in just four innings) and remember that was here at Miller Park due to Hurricane Irma. That's one of just three losses for the team in the L12 games as they've won three straight three times, only to be followed by a loss every time. Last night's loss to Pittsburgh in the final at-bat was certainly discouraging and I just don't see this as a playoff team. If anyone is to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card, I think it would be St. Louis, not Milwaukee. The fact that Davies has been the Brew Crew's most profitable starter to bet on this season (+8.75 units) speaks volumes considering the mediocre 3.99 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Davies did allow only one run in seven innings when he faced the Cubs in that sweep earlier this month, but should consider himself fortunate as he allowed seven hits. The Cubs are 23-11 this season as ML road favorites of -125 to -175 (71-29 L3 seasons!) while Milwaukee is 4-7 in that same range as a home dog (19-36 L3 seasons). So this is a "favorable" price we're getting on the Cubbies here. 10* Chi Cubs

8* LA Rams (8:25 ET): The 49ers are 0-2 straight up (1-1 ATS), but realistically, that's what you should have expected them to be at this point. I say that as someone who's had them each of the last two weeks. They failed to cash for me in Wk 1, losing 23-3 at Carolina. But then they were my top play in Week 2 as they covered wire to wire in Seattle, losing only 12-9 as massive two touchdown underdogs. As for the Rams, they turned heads in Wk 1 by walloping the Colts, 46-9. But then they came back "down to Earth" last week, losing at home to Washington 27-20. When lines were initially released over the summer, the Rams were set not to be favored a single time in the first 15 weeks. But, given the Colts were w/o QB Andrew Luck and the size of that victory, this will shockingly mark the third straight time they are in the chalk role! They have double revenge from LY (49ers' only two wins!) and look to be much improved. Meanwhile, you can't say the same for the lowly 49ers. No upset this week on TNF. Lay the short number.

Two weeks into the Kyle Shanahan regime and the Niners have yet to score a single TD. They've totaled only 12 points overall. A gifted offensive mind, Shanahan brought his system over from Atlanta, but unfortunately for him not the players. Brian Hoyer is the starting QB and he's been pretty dreadful thus far, throwing for just 255 yds - total. Last week, he completed 15 passes for 89 yards (a pitiful 3.27 yards per attempt). The offense was able to run the ball some (159 yds on 19 carries), but will be facing a stout front four here, coached by Wade Phillips. I expect the Rams' defense, under Phillips, to develop into one of the best in the league once Aaron Donald (returned last wk) gets back into form. Facing a bad offense in Week 1, the Rams allowed just 225 total yds w/o Donald. Philips called Donald "rusty" in his return last week, but I doubt that lasts for long. 

First year HC Sean McVay (youngest in the league) has been charged w/ turning around the Rams' offense, which was so awful under predecessor Jeff Fisher. QB Jared Goff has looked much more comfortable under McVay and it helps that RB Todd Gurley also seems to have regained his form from two seasons ago. It's rare to find the Rams in the chalk role on the road (happened only 4 times since 2010), but here it's justified due to it being a double revenge spot as mentioned above. Actually, the Rams have lost three straight times to the 49ers dating back to '15. They won't lose again here as the team actually appears to be trending toward mediocrity while the 49ers still reside at the bottom of the league. 8* LA Rams