Bryan Power

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): Toronto and Ottawa have been division rivals ever since the NHL’s previous realignment, which placed both in the Atlantic. For this atypical 2020-21 season, they are now part of the new “North Division,” which is comprised of all the league’s Canadian franchises. It’s a necessity because of COVID-19 restricting travel. The Leafs should be quite happy about this development as they’ll get to face the Senators NINE times this season. (All regular season games are vs. division foes this year). 

For the first meeting, I like the Leafs to roll. They’ve already got a game under their belt, which they won 5-4 against Montreal on Wednesday. The win did require OT as the Leafs battled back from a two-goal deficit. They never led in regulation, but did end up outshooting the Habs 34-32. I’ve seen plenty of Stanley Cup buzz surrounding this team and rightly so as they are an elite offensive club, led by Hart Trophy candidate Auston Matthews. The new division alignment really favors the Leafs, who no longer have to contend with Tampa Bay and Boston. (A side note: this is as good a year as any for the 28-year drought of no Stanley Cup in Canada to end. One of them is guaranteed to be in the final four).

Ottawa comes into the year on the opposite end of the spectrum as they finished with the second fewest points in the league last season. They have yet to play a game. Opening with two against Toronto is not ideal. The Senators are being pegged for last in the North this season (Toronto is the consensus #1) and initially it looked like we were getting a real bargain with this line. It’s since been steamed up quite a bit, but that won’t change the fact this should be an easy two points for the Leafs. 6* Toronto

10* Over Hawks/Jazz (9:05 ET): After having their previous game postponed, Atlanta finally takes the court again Friday night as they’ll travel to face Utah. Last we saw the Hawks was Monday when they snapped a four-game losing streak by defeating the Sixers 112-94. Early on, the Hawks were REALLY flying high as they got off to a 4-1 SU/ATS start to the season. But then they crashed back down with the aforementioned four-game slide - two of the losses vs. Charlotte - and all as favorites. They should be more comfortable in the underdog role tonight as they are 3-0 ATS this season when getting points.

Utah dominated Cleveland its last time out, winning by 30 (117-87) on the road. It was the second straight game where the Jazz held their opponent under 90 points and won. They beat Detroit 96-86 on Sunday. Such defensive efforts shouldn’t have been that surprising as the Pistons and Cavs are two of the worst offensive teams this league has to offer. Before the season, the Pistons were thought to be the worst offensive team in the league. It turns out that’s Cleveland, who is currently last in offensive efficiency by a mile.

So it should be a much tougher chore at the defensive end tonight for Utah. The Hawks have averaged 121.2 points in five road games so far. While that number is skewed by a 141-point game vs. Brooklyn, look for the Hawks to hang a pretty big number here. They’ve gone Under in six straight, but many of those O/U lines were much larger than this one. They are 15-3 Over vs. Northwest Division teams. Utah also had its last game cancelled, so both teams come in fresh and ready to run. This should turn into a bit of a shootout w/ the Over being 35-17 the L52 times Atlanta has been an underdog. 10* Over Hawks/Jazz

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (7:35 ET): These teams have “taken turns” leading the league in offensive efficiency the past two seasons (Bucks in 2018-19, Mavs in 2019-20) with the Bucks back on top so far this season. But I’m anticipating this Friday night ESPN matchup to be a bit more low-scoring than you might think. I just won with the Under on Milwaukee’s last game, a 110-101 win over the Pistons. They’ve now gone Under in three straight, allowing an average of just 96.7 PPG during that time. Dallas is tied with the Lakers for #1 in defensive efficiency while the Bucks aren’t far behind at #4 in that department.

The Mavs come into tonight on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, which has seen them defeat Houston, Denver, Orlando and Charlotte. In each of the last two games, they’ve held the opposition below 100 points and both those games stayed Under. The Under is 7-3 in all Mavs’ games this season, which have averaged “only” 213.8 PPG or well below the O/U for tonight’s matchup. On Wednesday, they held Charlotte to only 93 points on 38% shooting, including 10 of 38 from three-point range.

Milwaukee once again looks like the best team in the league as they have the best point differential and net efficiency rating. Winners of six of their last seven, the Bucks are right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, a place we all thought they’d be. They get a break here in that Dallas is a bit short-handed right now. Having held their previous five opponents to 42.8% shooting, it’s not as if the Bucks really need much of a break. Dallas is 5-2 Under its last seven tries as an underdog and I happen to think this O/U has been set too high. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks

10* UAB (5:00 ET): UAB looks to be severely underpriced here. The Blazers have lost only one time (9-1 SU) and that was to Chattanooga (who’s now 11-3 SU) by three points. They were 10.5-point favorites in that lone defeat, which they’ve subsequently bounced back from by beating Southern Miss twice last weekend. But, as double digit favorites, the Blazers did not cover either game vs. Southern Miss. While this is only the second “true” road game of the season, they beat a decent E Tenn State team in the first and that was on the only game (besides today) this season that they DIDN’T go off as a DD favorite. We look to be getting a real discount here. 

Charlotte is 5-5 SU and coming off a terrible loss to a non-DI opponent, Belmont Abbey. That’s the only game the 49ers have played in the L2 weeks. The team had previously won four of five and covered two straight at home vs. Western Kentucky. They did have a couple impressive early season wins, beating South Carolina State by 38 and upsetting Davidson on the road as a 10.5-point dog. But their other three wins have all been by four points or less and they’re a bit lucky to even be .500 at this point. 

Defensively, UAB has been excellent, giving up just 57.0 PPG. That ranks 3rd in the country among teams that have played at least 10 games with the only two allowing fewer being Houston and Tennessee, a pair of Top 10 teams in the country. Charlotte has been through a lot recently with their last two games both going into OT and a COVID 19 cancellation vs. Marshall. Not only did they just shoot only 36.8% against a non-DI team, but they’ve allowed three of the last five opponents to shoot 50% or better. UAB has double revenge and is 5-1 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest. 10* UAB