Will Rogers

The set-up: The Samford Bulldogs are 1-1 and the Belmont Bruins are 3-0. Am I predicting an outright upset here? I'm not. But I do think this one'll be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Samford is averaging 87 PPG and it's allowing 75.5. Of course, the sample size is small, but the season is a short one. 

The picks: The Bruins are averaing 81.7 PPG and they're allowing 68.7. These teams numbers are similar in the early going. Belmont is absolutely the better team here, but I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent and takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Samford's offense has impressed early and I think it'll hang tight late. Grab the points!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Samford.

The set-up: Both teams are winless. North Florida is 0-4 and High Point is 0-2. North Florida though has faced "murderers row" early thogh, with contests vs. Eastern Kentucky, NC State, Miami and Florida State. High Point has lost to Davidson and Elon. 

The pick: These teams are similar, but I've seen much more from the Ospreys and than the Panthers his season. Note as well that High Point is a poor 12-26 ATS in its last 38 home games, while North Florida is 21-6 ATS in it slast 27 road games. The Panthers are thin after their starters and that plays into this one as well. An outright is possible, but in the end grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on North Florida.

The set-up: Florida is still in the playoff hunt at 7-1 after beating Kentucky 34-10 this past weekend. Tennessee's game against Vanderbilt was postponed, so the Vols come in fresh after their last game, a 30-17 setback at Auburn all the way back on October 21st. I like the Gators and Kyle Trask to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish, as Florida is one win or one Georgia loss away from clinching the SEC East. Florida averages 43.4 PPG and it allows 25.9. 

The pick: Tennessee averages just 20.1 PPG, while allowing 30.1. In their last loss to Auburn, the Vols actually outgained the Tigers 464-385, but costly turnovers were the difference. Jarrett Guarantano comes in rested here for the home side though and I think the extra time off will translate into production on the field for the hungry home side. I think Trask will put on a show this afternoon and I like Tennessee to keep it competitive until late. This number is low.

This is a 9* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Florida/Tennessee.

The set-up: ULM is 0-8, while Arkansas State is 3-5. It's been a difficult year for both teams in many ways and I expect each to come out flat and disinterested here. Arknasas State won this game 48-41 last year, but that was then and this is now. Last year ULM averaged 31.6 PPG, but now the offense is sputtering along, averaging only 16.4 PPG. That's good news to Arkansas State's poor defense. The defense has been a mess for the Warhawks as well, but the Red Wolves' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this year. 

The pick: It's interesting to note that Arkansas State actually has the 13th ranked pass defense in the nation. Yes, these teams struggle defensively, but that's mainly against good teams. These are two bad teams and I expect that sloppy/awkward play to result in a solid, lower-scoring "under" once the final whistle sounds.

This is an 8* play on the UNDER ULM/Arkansas State.

The set-up: Tom Herman is coaching for his job here for Texas. The Longhorns' offense revolves around Sam Ehlinger, who will look to move to a perfect 4-0 against K-State ofr his career. The Texas defense has taken a hit, but fortunately that unit faces the poor offense of the Wildcats, which have averaged just 362.2 yards per game of offense, with backup Will Howard now directing the show after Skylar Thompson went down with injury. 

The pick: To make matters worst for K-State, its defense has been even worse than its offense, allowing 426.6 yards per game and almost 270 of those yards through the air. And that's the difference-maker here for me entirely, as I expect Ehlinger to have himself a day here. Texas still has a chance to finish 7-3 (with a game at home against the lowly Jayhawks to finish it off.) I expect Ehlinger to take over this game on Saturday afternoon - lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas.