Will Rogers

In the Flames/Oilers series it seems that we can expect the unexpected. After 2 barn-burners, game three came in with the under. The stat I did not expect to see was Mike Smith with a lower save average than Jacob Markstrom. 40 year old Smith has been a very successful goalie and looks to have found some of his “old” form, but Markstrom will need to be better if the Flames are to have any success. It is not really the fault of Markstrom; the Oilers have been dazzling on offense. The Oilers are peaking right now and that McDavid line is unstoppable. Even a wounded Drysatl was full marks in game three, and Kane had a hat trick on Sunday and is sixth in play off points. Perhaps one exceptional line can win a series after all. The Flames do not yet have a solution for the Oilers’ speed, and really only won Game one in Calgary through goalie ineptitude. I am on the home side tonight. Take the Oilers to win

One very good and one exceptional goaltender, and the first and second-ranked defensive teams in the regular season have made this a very low-scoring series. The Hurricanes have been completely consistent to date, losing all road games, but game 3 was their best road effort yet, out-shooting the Rangers by a wide margin. Special teams played a big role. Essentially, the Rangers scored on their PP, and the Hurricanes couldn’t. I am not convinced that Carolina will not win on the road tonight, but Shesterkin in top form (as he seems to be now) is a huge limiting factor. Look for Carolina to do what they do best, and hinder the Rangers’ offense. They were the regular season’s best penalty-killers, so should have an edge in the limited penalty opportunities. All three previous games have gone under and 5 ½ goals is now available. Take today’s game to continue the pattern of low scoring meetings. I am wagering on the Under again.

Someone lit a fire under the Red Sox hitters, and boy, have they responded, in particular Devers, JD Martinez and Story. They are the hottest hitting team in baseball with a .285 BA and a huge .854 team OPS. The White Sox are better than usual lately, but pale in comparison. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox. He has been generally great, but has had a couple of off days. His last start was very good but in the previous one, he gave up 6 runs over 4 innings to the Yankees. He has a phenomenal strikeout total of 67 to date. There are concerns with Cease; he has given up more hits and walks than usual lately and the Red Sox have had very good success in the past against him.

It took until his second start in May to get going, but Boston’s starter Pivetta has been sensational since, giving up just 2 ER in a whopping 22 innings over 3 starts. His last start was a complete game effort, allowing just 1 run. The Sox have won 8 of 10, and are even getting solid relief pitching at the moment.

The White Sox are favored on Tuesday, but I am on the Red variety for Tuesday. Boston is a very good hitting team on an absolute tear at the moment. Cease has been up and down lately. I think Boston has a real shot at winning, but if nothing else, I expect them to keep this one close.   Take Boston on the run line at +1 1/2.    

Do or die for the Mavericks tonight as it’s win or go home (rather, stay home). They face a seemingly insurmountable 0-3 series hole, something no team in NBA history has ever climbed out from. So how should you play Game 4? 

I like the Under. The Under is 33-14-1 in all Mavs’ home games this year and it did cash in Game 3 where only 209 total points were scored. While I do think Dallas is going to score more tonight than they did Sunday, let’s also not forget they are giving up just 101.1 points per game at home this season. That’s tops in the NBA. So don’t rule them out yet.

The Under is 4-0 the last four times Dallas has been favored. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been an underdog.

The Warriors have shot exceptionally well in this series. But Game 3 (46.9%) saw a steep decline from the first two games where they shot 56.1% at home. For tonight, expect shooting along the lines of Game 3, or probably an even lower percentage.

Luka Doncic has put up 40 or more points each of the last two games. Only Hakeem Olajuwon and LeBron James have ever gone three straight Conference Finals games with 40+. So Doncic should cool off. We should also see fewer free throw attempts than we did in Game 3. There were 59 FT attempted Sunday, up from 54 and 37 in the first two games.