Will Rogers

#1 Baylor looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday. I expect this game to go quite well for the top ranked Bears. 

They led Texas Tech by 15 in the first half before suffering their first loss since last year’s Big 12 Tournament. The reigning National Champs had won 22 in a row by an average of 26 points.

Oklahoma State is also off a loss to Texas Tech, though theirs came in more lopsided fashion. It was 78-58 down in Lubbock on Thursday. This is a trying season for the Cowboys, who are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor has had two more days to prepare for this game, an advantage they don’t really need but will gladly take. This is OSU’s third road game in five days and they have failed to cover eight of their last nine overall.

Look for the best team in the country to come out with some real energy after suffering their first loss of the year. That should result in a big win. Play on BAYLOR

There’s a top five in the SEC pecking order with Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama all vying for conference supremacy. Two of the five teams go head to head on Saturday as #18 Kentucky faces #22 Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon.

UT has split its first four SEC games, winning twice at home and losing both times on the road. That pattern doesn’t bode well for today. The teams the Volunteers lost at: were Alabama and LSU. Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena so far, winning by 27.5 points per contest.

The Wildcats’ only SEC loss came at LSU. They never trailed Tuesday in a 78-66 win over Vanderbilt. In that game, Oscar Tshiebwe turned in his 12th double double of the season and a career-high 30 points. UK led by as many as 28 before taking their foot off the gas near the end of the game.

Kentucky seems to have a major edge at the offensive end where they are eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee is only 58th. Versus teams that average 77 or more points per game, the Vols are 5-14 ATS the previous three seasons. 

Because they’re playing at home, Kentucky has a significant advantage. Lay the points here. 

The Lakers and Nuggets are both fighting to get into the top six in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently occupy sixth position, but are just a game up on Saturday’s opponent. The home team looked very good its last time out as they blasted an undermanned Portland team 140-108.

Los Angeles hasn’t been as lucky of late. The Lakers have lost two in a row and in doing so have given up 125 and 127 points. They let Memphis and Sacramento shoot 54.5% from the field.

With Anthony Davis and others out, the scoring burden has fallen on LeBron James. But James has been up to the task, even playing center at times, and he’s scored 30 or more in 11 of the last 12 games.

Given how the Lakers have played defense recently and how the Nuggets shot in their last game, there’s no doubt in my mind that the home team will score a bunch tonight. The Lakers should follow suit though. The Over is 4-0 their last four games and 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off a loss. The Over is also 4-0 the last four Lakers-Nuggets matchups in Denver. Take the OVER

The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row.

As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense.

The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover..

The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense.

The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue.

The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover.