Will Rogers

The set-up: From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. Washington is out to atone for a 2-0 home loss to the Islanders, while Chicago is looking to bounce back after a 4-3 road loss to the Rangers. Despite the lacklustre effort at home, note that the Capitals are still 14-9 on the road, averaging 3.35 goals and allowing 3.26. The Blackhawks are just 8-15 at home, averaging 2.92 goals and allowing 3.46. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 17 in non-conference games this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “over” in six of seven already this season when playing with two days rest. This number is low, play the “over.”

8* Over  

The set-up: Detroit comes in off a 6-4 loss in Calgary and heads out even further West to now face the Canucks, who enter off a 4-3 home win over Buffalo. I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. Wings’ goaltender Jimmy Howard is just 4-6 with a 3.12 GAA on the road this year. Detroit is 8-15 overall away from friendly confines, averaging 2.83 goals and allowing 3.74. Vancouver has scored 14 goals over its last three games. Jacob Markstrom is 10-8 with a 2.58 GAA at home this season. Vancouver averages 3.13 goals and allows 2.87 at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vancouver is 6-2 in its last eight home games after a win in which it scored four or more goals in, while Detroit is just 1-6 in its last seven on one days rest. For all the reasons listed above, I think this is great value on the under-valued home side.

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as each comes in off a game on Saturday. The Hornets played and beat the Suns at home, while the Pacers played the Mavericks at home. Indiana plays with revenge here today as well after falling 127-109 in Charlotte back on November 21st. The Hornets average 112.1 PPG and they allow 111.4. The Pacers average 108.7 PPG and they allow just 103.4. That’s first in the NBA (note that the “under” is 15-6 for the Pacers this season when they play at home.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four vs. good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Indiana has seen the total go “under” in 13 of 18 as a home favorite this season and in three of four in revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points in. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* Chiefs.