Will Rogers

The set-up: The Sharks were average on the road this year, but great at home. St. Louis had its hands full in Game 4 though, but it would hold on for a 2-1 win in front of the home town crowd. Note that St. Louis is 27-22 on the road, averaging 2.80 goals and conceding 2.45 in those contest. The Sharks are 32-19 at home though. averaging 3.67 goals and allowing 2.86 in those games. I do indeed think that “home ice” will be the difference for the Sharks this evening.  

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while St. Louis is still only 7-16 in its last 23 playoff games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

San Jose Sharks

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The set-up: I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s loss with their ever improving “ace” on the hill. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Miley (4-2, 3.51 ERA) most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Tigers on May 14th. Unfortunately a date vs. the Red Sox is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as note that he’s just 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four career outings vs. them. 

Sale (1-5, 4.24) has returned to his dominant form in May, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over three outings, posting 41 K’s and a single walk spanning 21 innings of work. Sale has to be feeling confident here as well as he’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Sale’s agonizingly slow start to the season continues to drive the southpaws price down right now. Great value on the surging Sale. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: Toronto has looked competitive in both games up until the fourth quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Bucks have pulled away each time for the cover. In an essentially “do or die” scenario, I’m expecting Toronto to battle tough here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far Milwaukee has rolled through its competition, but I believe the shift in venue North of the border finally leads to a letdown here from the Deer. The Raptors were better at home than on the road all season and if not now, when? 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following a home win by ten points or more. I’m laying the price and taking the home side on the money line here. 

Toronto Raptors (Moneyline)

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