Will Rogers

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall. 

The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday. 

Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars.

The pick: After yesterday’s “duel,” the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a “slug-fest” on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers.

The set-up: The Phillies came back and beat the Braves last night, but I like the home side to get the job done on Thursday afternoon. Both teams are equally as “hungry” for victories here. Philadelphia needs victories to stay alive in the race, and ATL is still hunting down the No. 1 spot in the Senior Circuit. But after yesterday’s setback, I think the home side responds. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) is 3-1 vs. the Braves in five starts this year with a 4.06 ERA. 

Soroka (12-4, 2.57) has a 4.82 ERA and no decisions over two games faced vs. the Phillies this year. For arguments sakes, I’m calling the starters a “wash” today.

The pick: Atlanta can win the division pennant with a win today and tomorrow and after dropping the first two of this series, I look for it to take care of the first of those two steps this afternoon. Great price on the home side here in this great situational spot wager.

10* SITUATIONAL STOMPING on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish.

The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane.

The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags.