Art Aronson

This is an 8* play on the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants held on for a 2-1 win last night and we think the offer great value in this position as well. Derek Holland (6-8, 3.97 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently earned a win despite allowing five runs over 6.1 innings, also walking one and striking out five. To go along with his respectable 3.97 ERA, Holland also owns a decent 1.28 WHIP over 124.2 innings. The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-0, 2.12) who looked unstoppable before landing on the DL early in the season. Ryu is back in action now though after a coupe of re-hab starts, but we think he’ll stumble here. Ryu will be on a short leash and Holland has a big opportunity to take command of his and set the tone and put the pressure on early. Great value on the upset, play on the GIANTS.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* play on the Houston Astros.

We had a play on the Astros last night and they came up short. And while slugger Jose Altuve is out of the line-up for the home side, we still believe that Gerrit Cole will have more than enough to take care of his counterpart Tyler Anderson today. Anderson (6-4, 3.94 ERA) gave up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Thursday. In his previous start he’d been shelled for seven runs in Milwaukee. Note that Anderson has a 3.47 ERA at home, compared to a 4.59 ERA on the road. Cole (10-5, 2.75) comes in off a couple of shaky outings. Overall though Cole is having a fantastic campaign, as most of his numbers, including peripherals, compete with the best in the league. Note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA at home. We like Cole to come in focused as he looks to break a string of setbacks; lay the price, play on the ASTROS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins.

We think that Kevin Guasman is over-priced in this one. Miami fell 10-6 yesterday, but we think the Marlins will bounce back here with Jose Urena (3-12, 4.74 ERA) who gave up four runs off eight hits with a walk over five innings while striking out three in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Urena has admittedly stumbled of late, but he catches a break here facing off against Guasman (6-9, 4.27) who has a win and a loss for his new team so far. Note that Miami is 25-17 (+16.3 units) in its last 42 after allowing ten or more runs in its previous outing, while Atlanta is already a poor 6-8 (-1.8 units) this year after three or more consecutive victories. We think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry underdog. Play on the MARLINS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

Robert Stephenson has looked sharp in Triple-A but I think we think he’s in over his head here in this one. Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.24 ERA) gets the call for the Cleveland and he’s coming off a win over the Angels on Sunday, allowing two runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out seven over six innings. His ERA and WHIP are pedestrian, but his 58:11 K:BB over 57 innings is respectable. Note that Bieber is 2-0 with a 3.82 ERA on the road as well. Stephenson (0-1, 6.75) posted a 1.61 ERA over his last nine starts in Triple-A, but clearly he faces a stiff test here. We think he stumbles. No upset here, lay the price with confidence. Play on the INDIANS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

We like the Phillies to bounce back off yesterday’s 2-1 defeat. The visitors go with Nate Eovaldi (5-4, 3.74 ERA) who was shlled for eight runs off ten hit over 2.2 innings in a no-decision to Baltimore on Friday. Previous to that he’d thrown 15 scoreless, but clearly it was a major step back. The home side goes with Vince Velasquez (8-9, 3.98) who gave up four runs off sox hits over four innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. It was the first time in eight starts that he’s allowed more than three runs. He owns a sharp 10.0 K/9 and note that he owns a sharp 3.14 ERA in all “night” contests. Boston has been exceptional overall this tar, but Philadelphia at 65-52 has been better than expected also. We like Velasquez at home. Play on the PHILLIES.

AAA Sports