Art Aronson

This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

For the second time in the last three years, it will be the Astros meeting the Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Two years ago, Houston prevailed in a seven game series that saw the home team go 7-0. Fortunately for the Astros, they once again have the homefield edge. The only time that the Yanks had to come to Minute Maid Park in 2019 was back in April. They were swept in that three-game series. Before winning Game 3 over Minnesota in the LDS, New York had lost 10 of 12 playoff road games. They are just 2-12 their last 14 road games in LCS play including the 0 for 4 in Houston back in 2017. We suppose the only question mark with the Astros going into Game 1 would be Zack Grienke facing this potent Yankees lineup. Greinke did not pitch well in Game 3 of the LDS vs. Tampa Bay where he gave up three home runs and six runs total in a 10-3 loss. But that's not something we usually see from him and certainly its even less common to see Greinke turn in two bad starts in a row. He pitched well the two times he faced NY in the regular season. In 12 2/3 innings, he allowed only three runs. Greinke has lost just once at home this year. For the Yankees, Tanaka often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00. He got to pitch at home in the LDS. The Yankees are 5-7 this year as underdogs of +125 to +175 on the road. Houston is an impressive 21-4 after a day off. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on VEGAS

Vegas started its season by sweeping a home and home against rival San Jose. They've since lost two straight. Even though it was at home, the loss to Boston can't be considered all that bad. The Bruins have looked really good so far. But a 4-1 loss at Arizona has to be considered the Golden Knights first "bad" performance of the young campaign. They look to rebound tonight, back at home, against a Calgary team that won the Pacific Division last year. The Flames, like the Knights, have won two and lost two. One of the Flames two losses was in overtime. That was as a -250 favorite at home vs. the Kings. They came back to beat Dallas 3-2 on the road Thursday, though it went to a shootout. Vegas has been far too careless with the puck their last two games. Fortunately that can be corrected. We lean on home ice advantage tonight. Calgary has never won in Vegas, losing all four prior trips. The home team was also 4-0 in the four overall meetings last season. Play on VEGAS

AAA

This is a 10* play on Kron Gracie (to win)

The Gracie name will be forever intertwined with the Ultimate Fighting Championship due to Royce Gracie dominating the early days of the promotion when it was a very different sport. The latest Gracie to make an impact is Kron Gracie, who is 5-0 with all five wins coming by submission. He's back in the Octagon tonight to face the struggling Cub Swanson, whose UFC career seems to be headed in a much different direction. Swanson has lost four in a row, two of them by submission. Given the state of the respective careers here, this line looks to be way too short. Gracie just submitted Alex Caceras in his last fight. It was over in the 1st round and it's worth mentioning that Caceras hadn't been beaten that early going all the way back to 2011! Gracie is obviously going to take this fight to the ground ASAP and when it gets there he has an overwhelming advantage that will make the final result academic. Swanson has not won a fight by tapout since 2009! Nor has he even finished an opponent in any fashion going back to 2013. Any advantage Swanson could enjoy standing will be nullified by the fact he's going to be on the defensive, trying to avoid being taken down. This should be a quick and one-sided fight. Play on KRON GRACIE

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

This is an insanely low total for a College Football game in 2019. Consider that Wyoming is averaging 31 points/game on its own, which would be basically just a touchdown shy of the number. Now we don't expect the Cowboys to score that many against San Diego State. This team is a very misleading 4-1 as they have been outgained in four of five games. Before beating UNLV 53-17 two weeks ago, the Cowboys had trailed by double digits in all four games. The defense gives up over 400 yards and is lucky to be allowing only 20.4 points/game. San Diego State has seen all five of its game stay Under so far and their participation is what has this total so low. Going back to last season, the Aztecs have had their issues scoring. But they should rediscover the end zone multiple times against this Wyoming defense. The Aztecs have scored at least 23 points in all three wins this year and are off nice road win against Colorado State. QB Agnew threw three touchdowns in the 24-10 win.  The Over has hit 8 of the last 11 times these schools have met and not once was the total lower than it is here. By kickoff, there's a strong chance that this total will be the lowest for any NCAAF game played so far this season. Let's be honest here. It won't take much to send the game Over and with the game taking place in San Diego, you know the weather will not be a factor. Play OVER Wyoming-San Diego State

AAA

This is a 10* on NEBRASKA

Minnesota has managed to stay unbeaten, but four of its five wins have been by no more than seven points. Last week's 40-17 triumph over Illinois is the outlier. At the start of the year, we certainly didn't envision Nebraska being a seven-point underdog in this game. No one did. But the Cornhuskers have suffered two defeats already, one to Ohio State, and are dealing with some uncertainty at quarterback heading into Saturday. Adrian Martinez had to leave last week's game vs. Northwestern with a knee injury and did not return. The team is preparing as if backup Noah Vedral is going to get the call and that's fine by us. Vedral followed coach Scott Frost to Lincoln as a UCF transfer. It's telling that Minnesota still isn't ranked despite its 5-0 start. We've got these teams rated pretty evenly and that's even after factoring in the Gophers homefield advantage. This line seems to be an overreaction to the Nebraska QB situation, which we feel is unwarranted. The Cornhuskers are 8-4 ATS their previous 12 road games. Last year, they were winless coming into the Minnesota game and won 53-28. Again, the Gophers struggled to get by the likes of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They only beat Purdue by 7 despite the Boilermakers losing both their starting QB and top receiver in that game. It would be great if Martinez could play, but we're prepared to roll with Vedral if necessary. Play on NEBRASKA

AAA

This is an 8* play on USC

Notre Dame has had a couple close calls with the pointspread the last two weeks. That may seem like an odd statement for a team coming off a 52-0 victory last week, but they were actually favored to beat Bowling Green by 45.5. The week prior they took advantage of some late turnovers to down Virginia 35-20 as 10.5-point favorites. Believe us when we saw that the Fighting Irish wouldn't have won that game had they not been +5 in turnovers. The week before that was the loss to Georgia. So it's been a bit of an exhausting stretch for Brian Kelly's team and now USC comes to South Bend for a Saturday night battle. The Trojans were off last week and we love the spot for them getting this many points. Two weeks ago, they upset Utah despite having to turn to third string QB Matt Fink. Fink threw for 381 yards in that game but came back down to Earth against Washington, throwing three costly interceptions in a 28-14 loss. Despite the final score, USC slightly outgained Washington in that contest. The same was true in the Trojans other loss, which was by three at BYU in overtime. Kedon Slovis has been cleared to return from a concussion this week and will get the start. Though Fink had the big game vs. Utah, consider Slovis an upgrade at the position. The Fighting Irish have covered four straight games, but their "luck" runs out here. You should expect Slovis and the USC offense to take better care of the football than previous ND opponents have. Play on USC

AAA

This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE

Mississippi State (3-2 SU) comes in as the favorite here in Knoxville against a struggling 1-4 Tennessee team. Though it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs are favored, two weeks ago they looked completely incompetent in getting run off the field by Auburn. They lost the game 56-23 and while they got a week off to recoup, we still would want no part of laying points on the road with them. In another competitive environment, they lost to Kansas State and that was at home. Tennessee obviously has its own set of issues after being blown out by Florida and Georgia. But they did play Georgia tough in the first half as they were up 14-13 with under two minutes left in the first half. From there, they were outscored 30-0. But this is a game the Vols think they can win. If there's still any hope of making a bowl game, they may need this one. Mississippi State hasn't won in Knoxville since 1986 (0-4 since) so expecting them to win by more than a touchdown, in a down year, seems unlikely. Tennessee has won 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. Freshman Maurer remains the starting QB on Rocky Top after making his debut in the role vs. Georgia. Miss State's QB situation is a little more murky as Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader are both banged up. Tennessee has covered only 3 of its last 17 home games, which is pretty incredible when you think about it, but Miss State is only 1-6 ATS its past seven road games. This is a spot where taking the points should come in handy. Play on TENNESSEE

AAA

This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Sparty simply didn't have the horses to keep up with Ohio State last Saturday night in Columbus. The game got away from them late in the second quarter when the Buckeyes put 10 points on the board in the final 2:24 to go into halftime with a 27-10 halftime advantage. It is worth pointing out that - absent the second quarter - they held Ohio State to one touchdown in the other three quarters. Having to play Ohio State and Wisconsin back to back weeks on the road almost seems unfair, but this matchup should be more friendly from the Michigan State perspective. Wisconsin is less athletic and less dynamic in the passing game. We know the Badgers will lean heavily on the road, but that plays right into the hands of Mark Dantonio's defense, which ranked 1st in the country at stopping the run last year and is 21st so far this year. The Spartans haven't had many bad years under Dantonio. Really, an injury-riddled and unfortunate 2016 (where they went 3-9) was the only one. Take that season away and they've gone 10-1 SU the week after suffering a double digit loss and the only loss in the situation was by a field goal. This is a lot of points for Wisconsin to lay in what should be a methodical, grind it out type game. They've been blowing out lesser teams so far (including Michigan), but struggled to get by Northwestern here in Madison and this should be a similar kind of game against a more talented opponent. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Though currently unranked, we think the Spartans are still a Top 25 team. We don't see them being blown out back to back weeks. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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