Art Aronson

This is a 1* Free Play on the UNDER between the Spurs/Warriors.

After their emotional Game 4 victory which staved off the 4-0 elimination sweep, it’s not too hard to imagine the undermanned Spurs suffering a classic letdown here in Game 5. Certainly San Antonio won’t want to turn this one into a “track meet” with Golden State. The Warriors have had to make adjustments of their own in this series, with a heavy emphasis on its big men with star guard Stephen Curry sidelined with injury until at least the next round. Fatigue is a factor at this point of the series as well. Also note that SA has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of 25 already this season following a win by ten points or more, while Golden State has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The situation and the numbers both point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05 EST).

Robbie Ray (2-0, 4.98 ERA) is coming off his best start of 2018 and we’re expecting the Diamondbacks’ southpaw to carry that momentum over here. Ray most recently held San Francisco to just two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision on Wednesday. Ray has not yet reached the form which saw him going 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA overall last year. He has to be feeling pretty confident here though, as note that he was 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with the equally as hot Vince Velasquez (1-2, 3.80), who after getting rocked in his debut, has since posted three straight quality outings to go along with an elite 20:3 K:BB in that span. Velasquez though was anything but consistent in this spot last season, going a poor 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA at home. The Phillies’ have struggled with offensive consistency thus far, while Arizona leads the majors in many offensive categories. We like Ray to at the very least match his counterpart today and in a situation like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting DIAMONDBACKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 9* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros.

We feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. As good as Shohei Ohtani has been, both on the mound and at the plate this year, Charlie Morton isn’t getting nearly enough respect in our opinion, as the Astros’ veteran comes in on top form. Ohtani’s last start was cut short due to a blister issue and after he gave up three runs off four hits while striking out just one over two innings in a loss to the Red Sox. Morton (3-0, 0.72) is obviously due for regression, but there’s no reason to think that he won’t carry over his momentum, note that he has three scoreless outings of at least six innings and is striking out more than ten batters per nine frames of work. Morton was 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA last year, he had a strong spring and and everything points to perhaps his finest season ever. As mentioned off the top, we feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the ASTROS.

AAA Sports

IGNORE..INCORRECT SIDE CHOSEN

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Braves.

Ultimately we feel that this line could/should be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 2.91) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks with six K’s over 5.1 innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. The home side counters with the erratic Tyler Mahle (1-3, 5.14) who gave up two runs off seven hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Mahle has been better at home than on the road, but note that the Reds have given him very little support. We’re banking on McCarthy continuing his hot start to the season and for the BRAVES to give him more than enough support for the victory against the volatile Mahle. Play on Atlanta.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors put up a hell of a fight in Game 4 to stave of elimination. But with that heroic effort out of the way for grieving head coach Gregg Popovich, we believe that everything points to a predictable letdown here for the aging Spurs. San Antonio big man LaMarcus Aldridge has been a disappointment so far and we think he’ll struggle again on the road against the more athletic bigs of Golden State. Note as well that the Spurs are just 5-9 ATS already this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Golden State is 8-5 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. All signs point to a blowout, play on the WARRIORS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat.

Other than Game 2, Miami has been unable to hang in the second half of their games with Philadelphia. The 76ers have a strangle-hold on this series now, but we think Miami won’t be going down without a fight tonight. The 76ers are a dangerous team, but Miami has a lot of veteran experience and heart and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, the stage is definitely set for another epic battle. Note as well that Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. No outright upset, but closer than expected war. Grab the points, play on MIAMI.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Bucks/Celtics.

So far this has been a series dominated by the home team. The Bucks and Celtics head back to Boston all knotted up two. So far every game in this series has gone OVER the number, but we think the conditions are finally right for more of a defensive battle between these hungry, yet without question very tired clubs. Note as well that Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in in eight of its last 13 when tied in a playoff series, while Boston has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports