Ben Burns

I'm playing on TORONTO (8* ANNIHILATOR). After winning with the Jays in the opener, I avoided them in yesterday's game. Good thing too. They got embarrassed. With Happ on the mound, I expect them to bounce right back and take this evening's rubber game. Happ continues to be extremely consistent and could easily have a better record on the season. He's seemingly determined to finish strong. Over his past three starts, Happ is 3-0 with a stellar 2.50 ERA. Over his past four starts, he's got a 2.25 ERA. When he faced the Royals back in June, he limited them to just four hits, 0 walks and only one run, through 6 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Vargas checks in with an ugly 8.25 ERA in three Sept. starts. That came on the heels of an ugly August which saw him go 1-5 with a 7.18 ERA. He also had a 7.23 ERA in July, too. In fact, check this out. Prior to the All-Star Break, Vargas was 12-3 with a 2.35 ERA. Since the break? 4-7 with a 7.11 ERA. I'm going with Happ and co. in the rubber game.

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS (8* PERS FAV). With a 3.57 ERA to go along with an 1.194 WHIP, Martinez could easily be better than 11-11. An 0-2 record against these Reds hasn't helped. Martinez hasn't always helped himself either; three of his last five starts have seen trouble arise when an inning-ending double-play wasn't completed. That all said, he's an excellent pitcher who almost always gives the Cards a chance to win. He averages more than six innings per start and strikes out more than a batter an inning. This start will likely see him top 200 innings on the season and he's already exceeded the 200 strikeout mark. 

While Martinez arguably deserves a better record, Bailey has been every bit as bad as his 5-8 record suggest. Worse, perhaps. Indeed, he's got a terrible 6.86 ERA and 1.725 WHIP. He's been particularly bad here at home. In eight starts here, he's 1-5 with a brutal 7.78 ERA, averaging just 4 2/3 innings per outing. 

Even with two losses this season, the Cards are still 5-2 when Martinez has started vs. the Reds. On the other hand, Bailey is 6-6-12 with a poor 5.75 ERA vs. the Cards. When he faced them last month, he got rocked for 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Expect Martinez to get the better of Bailey, the Cards closing the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on LA/SF to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). This O/U line could easily have opened in the 30s. The 49ers have scored a grand total of 12 points through two games. Yet, on the other side of the ball, they did hold a normally strong Seahawks team to just 12 points, at Seattle. The Rams came back to earth last week, managing just 20 points. This will be their first road game; they've seen the UNDER go 12-4 on the road the past couple of seasons. 

While neither have necessarily done so quite as much as they'd like to thus far, both teams want to run the ball with regularity. They have to. In the game here last September, the 49ers ran the ball 42 times. That game finished with 28 combined points. The previous meeting here produced 35 combined points. The Rams have seen the UNDER go 11-3-1 the last 15 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the -3 to +3 range. That includes a perfect 4-0 under mark when listed as road favorites of three or less.

During the same stretch, the 49ers have seen the UNDER go 7-2 when playing a game with an O/U line in the -3 to +3 range. That includes a 4-1 under mark when listed as home underdogs of three or less. 

The UNDER is 7-1 the last eight times that the Rams played a road game with an O/U line in the 38.5 to 42 range. During that same span the UNDER is also 3-0 when the 49ers played a home game with an O/U line in the same range. More of the same Thursday night. 

I'm playing on USF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Both teams have had success overall at the betting window in recent seasons. That hasn't been the case so far this year though. Temple is off to an 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) start. USF earned its first cover last week, improving to 1-2 ATS and 3-0 SU. The home team has won fairly comfortably, each of the last two meetings. Now, the gap between these teams is arguably wider than it has been. USF is loaded with experience and marching towards a New Year's Day bowl. The Bulls also haven't forgotten that these same Owls prevented them from a possible 12-1 season. (The Bulls would finish at 11-2, the only other loss coming vs. Florida State.) The Owls have already shown they can be blown out, losing by 33 at Notre Dame, the only good team they've faced. Payback time on Thursday.