Ben Burns

If it seems like the Badgers are always playing at home, its because this marks their fifth straight game here. They'll finally hit the road for a couple, after this one. While I do respect them, I believe that all the home games have people thinking that the Badgers are a little better than they really are. In turn, that has provided us with a generously high (double-digit) pointspread. I believe it'll prove to be too high, as I expect the Badgers to receive their first real test of the season this afternoon. Remember, the O/U line is only 40.5 or so. With not many points expected to be scored, it makes it tougher to win by double-digits. On that note, its worth mentioning that the Spartans are 10-4 ATS the past 14 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 42 range. With the Badgers just 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off a home win of 28 or more, consider grabbing the points. 

CUSA GAME OF THE YEAR GOES TODAY!

Its not as powerful or as glorious a conference as the SEC, Big-Ten, Big-12 etc. However, that has never prevented Ben Burns from making Conf. USA (CUSA) his own personal banking machine. Indeed, Ben has been CONSISTENTLY DELIVERING WINNERS in this conference for years & knows it like the back of his hand. If you liked UAB last week, YOU NEED THIS!

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) I don't think the Cards are getting enough respect here. Sure, Wainwright is a little long in the tooth. At 38, he's not that much older than Anibal Sanchez though and we saw him "turn back the clock" last night. The reality is that Wainwright has quietly been very good. Last time out, he tossed eight shutout innings. He recorded eight K's while holding the Braves to four hits. On the season, he's got a stellar 2.37 ERA in 17 home starts. The Cards are 7-1 his last eight against Washington and he was 2-0 against the Nats this season, allowing just three combined runs through 13 1/3 innings. The most recent of those came against Scherzer; the Cards won 5-1. Scherzer recorded 11 K's but also allowed all five runs. In fact, the Nats are 1-2 his last three starts against the Cards and that lone win came by a single run. Going back further finds Scherzer's teams at 4-7 in 11 starts vs. St. Louis, three of the four wins coming by a single run. In other words, his teams have only ever beaten the Cards by more than one run one time in 11 tries. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the desperate Cards. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Leafs have struggled out of the gate. However, this is still an elite team, in terms of talent - one which will have plenty of its own fans in the building for this one. Over the past couple of seasons, the Leafs are 8-2 (+5.4) when off three or more consec. losses. During that span, the Wings were a terrible 18-39 (-16.8) in divisional games. The Leafs have been laying more than -300 for recent home games against Detroit but we're able to get them for a reasonable price due to the game being played at Detroit. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, en route to earning an important two points. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros were tested more than many expected in the opening round. That may actually serve them well here though, in my opinion. They've had their "wake up call" and are ready to go. The last four times that he's faced NY, a span of 26 2/3 innings, Greinke has allowed 2, 1, 3 and 2 runs. Simply put, Tanaka hasn't been good on the road. In fact, in 15 road starts, he's got an ugly 6.16 ERA. By comparison, Greinke has a 3.55 ERA at home. Tanaka has a 1.407 WHIP on the road, averaging 5.4 innings. Greinke has a 1.048 WHIP at home, averaging 6.4 innings. The Yanks are just 28-43 as road underdogs past 2+ seasons, 6-13 their last 19. That includes an ugly 3-12 (-8) mark the past 15 times that they were road underdogs in the +100 to +150 range. With the Astros a dominating 21-4 the past 25 times that they played with a day off in between games, I'm laying the wood with Greinke. 

I'm playing on UTSA. While I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, I feel that they're laying too many points this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Blazers are on the road. Off last week's big win and facing a team which they hammered last season, I believe that the Blazers will be ripe for a letdown this week. That'll prove costly though. UTSA is off its best game, arguably, in recent memory, a 26-16 win at UTEP. While the Blazers will be without their starting running back, the Roadrunners ran for more than 300 yards last week. The offensive line dominated and true freshman Sincere McCormick put up a program record 189 yards. The Roadrunners deep and experienced defensive line is also off an excellent game. The Roadrunners, who brought back considerably more starters from last year than did the Blazers, haven't forgotten last year's 52-3 shellacking at UAB. They played the Blazers tough here the previous season though, a 24-19 game. Note that UAB is just 10-19-1 ATS the past 30 times it was listed as a road favorite. Hungry for a "signature win," expect the Roadrunners to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on Florida/LSU UNDER the total. The last three meetings have produced 26, 33 and 46 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Gators have seen all six of their games, even a non-lined game, produce 50 or fewer combined points. They've had two outright shutouts and have allowed 21 or less in every game. Last time out, they limited Auburn to 13 points. Auburn had previously been averaging 38 ppg. The (LSU) Tigers also showed they're capable of dominating defensively last time out, as they held Utah State to just six points. Thats pretty good when considering that the Aggies entered that game averaging 38.5 points. Look for this one to again prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. To say that it has been a disappointing start for the Volunteers would be an understatement. Indeed, 1-4 was NOT where Tennessee and its fans wanted, or expected, to be right now. This is a team which they match up well against though. They're catching the Bulldogs playing b2b road games (separated by a bye) for the first time this season and off a 56-23 thrashing at Auburn. That was a reality check as it was the first really good team that the Bulldogs had played. I believe they're going to have a tough time bouncing back here. Yes, its been a tough run for the Vols - last year was bad, too. But this is a team which has a 2nd year coach with a ton of returning starters. They weren't going to beat the likes of Florida or Georgia but they can absolutely compete here. Coach Pruitt had this to say of the Vols: "...I feel like we've improved every single week...." Coach Moorhead was already facing some criticism after the Auburn loss but he'll be really hearing it after this one. I'll gladly grab the points but I say Tennessee finally plays its best game and scores the outright upset.