Ben Burns

I'm playing on NY/Atlanta OVER the total. These teams played a couple of low-scoring games against each other earlier. However, I'm expecting plenty of points in this one. The Knicks, who beat Dallas in their last game, have seen the OVER go 3-1 when off an 'upset' win. They'll face an Atlanta team which has allowed a minimum of 115 points in seven of its last nine games. The OVER is 26-14 the past 40x that the Knicks were off a double-digit win. With the Hawks off a game last night, NY will look to push the pace. With games here averaging nearly 222 points this season, look for the OVER to improve to 7-3 the past 10 times that NY was off a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The Canucks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Vancouver has returned from its break by losing b2b games. This is not the time or place for them to "get healthy." The Canes have dropped two in a row and their last loss was here by a 6-0 score. Off that debacle and with tougher games on deck, they will absolutely be all business in this one. In addition to having the venue in their favor and being the far stronger, healthier and more consistent team, the early start time favors the Canes, over their West-Coast based guests. The fact that they lost in Vancouver will provide even further motivation for the Canes. They're 7-1 their past eight, when off a home loss of three or more goals. Payback time. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have been off for some time; their last game was on 1/1. That 2-week break came at the right time. At the time, they were road-weary and not playing their best. The break offered time to recharge and regroup. Facing instate rival Idaho in their first game back is ideal. The Bengals are a respectable team which was playing badly. The Vandals are just a bad team. Idaho State brought back five starters from last season. Idaho brought back one. Those experienced Bengal players will be happy to see a team which they beat won both meetings against last season. (One win came by 26 points. The other was by six.) Both teams are 0-4 to start conference play. However, while the Vandals are allowing 88.2 ppg (49.6% fg) in their four loses, the Bengals are allowing just 68.5 ppg (41.5% fg) in theirs. Look for the Bengals to dictate the tempo and for their superior defense to ultimately lead to a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on SH/Marquette UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. When these teams met last season, the O/U line was 135.5. They combined for just 108 points. The last game here at Marquette (2020) the O/U line was 141. They combined for 133. Off the loss to Depaual, the Pirates will be looking to tighten up the defense here. That high-scoring road loss notwithstanding, UNDER is 3-1 in their road games. The previous three all finished with 137 or fewer combined points. Going back further finds the UNDER at 19-7 the past 26 times that the Pirates were road favorites of three or fewer points. Marquette also comes off a high-scoring game vs. Depaul. However, the Golden Eagles held Georgetown and Providence to 56 and 64 in their previous two games. No team has scored more than 80 against them since their 12/4 loss at Wisconsin. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than some will be expecting. 

Neither of these teams is very good. Both are fighting to avoid relegation. That makes this a big game. Today, I expect Newcastle to be stronger. Watford, which has dropped seven straight league matches, is missing a lot. The Magpies earned a draw against Man. United in their last game. Stepping down in class, a similar effort should result in victory. Consider Newcastle. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. The Bears got off to a fast start. However, they've come down to earth lately and I expect them to stumble again on Saturday afternoon. Off a loss to Stanford and with b2b road games on deck, the Cougars are going to be all business. They're 4-2 ATS off a loss. With an O/U line in the mid 120s, this game is expected to be played at a relatively slow pace. That should favor WSU. The Cougars are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games with a O/U line in the 130s. On the other hand, during that span, the Bears are 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. The Cougars won by 11, at Cal, last season. In the game here at Pullman, they won by 31. Look for another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I'm playing on NE/Buffalo UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in football. Arguably, the two very best. With all due respect to the offenses, this line could easily be lower. NE allows 17.8 ppg. Buffalo allows 17 ppg. Those are the #1 and #2 marks in the NFL. In terms of yards allowed, Buffalo ranks #1, at just 272.8 ypg allowed, and NE ranks #3. Both teams rank in the top half of the league (#8 and #13) in terms of rushing attempts per game, too. So, we're going to have a lot of running the ball to keep the clock moving. During the regular season, the game at NE was high-scoring but the game here at Buffalo was not. Four of the past five meetings in Buffalo have fallen below the total. Expect this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. While the Raiders did a great job in getting here, this setup is highly favorable for the Bengals. The Raiders left it all on the field against the Chargers last Sunday night, ultimately winning in OT. Off that emotional victory, they now travel east to play on a short week. Note that the Raiders suffered some serious bumps and bruises in Sunday's win. Notably, defensive lineman Darius Philion is out. He could have potentially been effective against the interior of the Cincy line. So, his absence is worth mentioning. The Bengals are rested and ready. This is their time. They took some heat for resting starters against the Browns but it will serve them well here. It's been a roller coaster of a season for the Raiders. It finally catches up with them here. The Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. They beat the Chiefs the last game here and pounded the Ravens in their previous home game. I expect a double-digit victory.