Ben Burns

I'm playing on North Dakota/Minnesota UNDER the total. When these teams met here last season, the O/U line was 136.5. The final score of 79-56 squeaked under that number. I'm projecting a similar final combined score tonight. Yet, we're working with a considerably higher O/U line. That's providing us excellent value, in my opinion. The Gophers, off a 67-64 win, are going to be difficult for the Fighting Hawks, at the end of a road trip, to score against. The Gophers have already forced 59 turnovers through three games and they've held opposing teams to a 38% shooting percentage, 25% from beyond the arc. Yes, the Gophers are going to put up a pretty big number. Keep in mind that Minnesota did shoot well (50.8% fg percentage and 45% from beyond the arc) in last year's game and yet it still stayed under. Look for more of the same here, the UNDER to improve to 8-5 the past 13 times that North Dakota played with one or less day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on TULSA. The home team has won by exactly 14 points each of the past two seasons, with nearly identical scores. Playing at home, the Mavericks took last year's game, 73-59. However, in the most recent game here at Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane won by a score of 72-58. At home, I expect another double-digit win for Tulsa this evening. To their credit, the Mavericks have fought pretty hard, eking out a pair of covers in their two true road games. They still lost both though, most recently falling by 12 on Wednesday. They've got some winnable games coming up after this one, but I expect them to be in over their heads here. As of this writing, the O/U line is 135, at most shops. Thats noteworthy as Tulsa has long thrived when playing at home, with games projected to play at this tempo. The Hurricane are 39-16 SU and 32-22-1 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Mavericks were just 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. Stony Brook lost a lot from last season. The Seawolves have only played one game and they lost by double-digits. With all the new faces in the starting lineup, I don't feel they're ready to be laying points. The Stags have an extra game under their belts and they've been battle tested by a game at Providence. After facing the Friars, who did beat them handily, they responded with a much better effort in a 5-point loss against Hartford. I don't believe that the Stags, 14-9 ATS in non-conference games the past 2+ seasons, are going to be intimidated by the Seawolves and feel that they've got an excellent shot at the outright upset. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks lost against Missouri in their opener. They didn't schedule these games at Omaha to go 0-2 though; I expect their very best effort this evening. While the Pirates may take a small step back this season, the Ducks should be right there among the top teams in the Pac-12. That Missouri loss figures to serve as a wake-up call. Even with the loss to the Tigers, the Ducks are still an outstanding 11-2 ATS their last 13 on a neutral floor. During that span, they're 20-10 ATS in non-conf. games and 11-6 ATS when playing with one day or less worth of rest in between games. Expect them to improve on those stats, en route to picking up their first victory of the season. 

I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number.