Ben Burns

I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total for the first half. The 49'ers check in off a 19-11 win over the Eagles. They're going to try and establish the run early. Their 33 rushing attempts per game is second in the entire NFL. Those frequent running plays will help keep the clock moving. The Packers bounced back from their Week 1 beating (they only scored three points for the entire game) to beat up on Detroit last game. The defense looked a bit shaky out of the gate but got going as the game progressed. That should provide some early positive momentum for the defense. Like their hosts, the Pack will want to try and establish the run early. Two of the three meetings since 2019 have seen 24 or fewer points scored by halftime. Look for this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on LA. For all the hype he receives, Ohtani's pitching may actually be under-rated. In 12 home starts, he's 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA. Last time out, he gave up just two earned runs in eight complete innings, striking out 10 along the way. The Angels didn't give him any support in that one and lost 3-2. They should provide more runs this afternoon though. Gonzales has been taken deep in six straight starts. In four of those games, he gave up multiple home runs. Trying to lock up the MVP award, look for Ohtani to do his thing and for the Angels to finish on top. 

After having lost three in a row, the Jays won a big one yesterday. They need to keep winning and they should have the edge again this afternoon. The Jays have won six straight with Manoah on the mound. They're 14-4 in his 18 starts overall. While Manoah has a 2.29 ERA his past three, Jax has a 6.58 ERA his past three. The Twins are 28-39 in day games. The Jays, on the other hand, are 39-18 in day games. Consider Toronto. 

Big Game Expert Ben Burns won ALL his BIGGEST plays in the preseason. His #1 preseason side was a WINNER. His #1 preseason total was a WINNER. His #1 "non-conference" play was a WINNER. EARLY Sunday afternoon, Ben UNLOADS on his #1 GAME OF THE SEASON, thus far, his #1 SEPTEMBER GAME OF THE MONTH. If you only make one play this month, you should really consider making it this one!

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO (action) Yes, the Braves have far more to play for. They're battling the Phillies to see who wins the NL East. San Diego isn't going to make it easy though. The Padres are still 45-35 at home and they're going to have an edge on the mound in this one. While the Padres have had a disappointing season, Musgrove has not. In 15 home starts, he's 6-4 with a solid 2.78 ERA and 1.076 WHIP. Chavez, on the other hand, has only made two starts. Normally a reliever, he's 0-1 with a 4.92 ERA to show for those two starts. He won't be around long. With Musgrove outlasting Chavez, the fact that both bullpens got used up yesterday becomes significant. With Musgrove outlasting Chavez, I say the Padres show some price. No sweep today.

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The Cards have certainly gotten off to the better start. That's led to them laying a big number here. For an early road game, against a hungry Jags team, I believe it'll prove to be too much. In fact, I won't be surprised to see Jacksonville break through and finally win one. Keep in mind that the Cards only won by one last game (34-33) and that they are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a game where they scored 30 or more points. With big division games (Rams and SF) on deck, it should be easy to look past lowly Jacksonville. The Jags, on the other hand, are desperate for a victory; their full attention will be on the task at hand. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a field goal, a 17-14 win for the Cards. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on SF. I won with the Packers on Monday night. That was against the Lions though. Now, they play on a short week against a much tougher team. I expect them to struggle. The Packers were obviously better than they showed against the Saints in Week 1. However, that 38-3 beating did expose some weaknesses, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they'll take on a stingy SF team, one which is already 2-0 and one which is fired up for its home opener. Last week, the 49ers held the Eagles to only 11 points. The favorite is 4-1 ATS the past five times that these teams faced each other, the home team winning each of the past four meeetings. The past two here at SF, games in 2019 and 2020, saw the 49'ers win by scores of 37-20 and 37-8. I expect another win and cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Detroit UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game, the Ravens run the ball the most in the NFL, so far this season. Indeed, the Ravens are averaging 220 yards per game on the ground and the #2 team is averaging 162. The Ravens' defensive stats are a bit misleading due to the fact that they just got into a shootout against the Chiefs and an OT game against the Raiders. Needless to say, the Lions' offense isn't as dangerous as the Chiefs offense, or the Raiders offense. While Goff and co. admittedly started pretty well against Green Bay, they quickly came back to earth in the second half. The Lions would finish with 17 points for the game. Scoring figures to be tough for them again. That said, they're going to want to establish the run themselves, to try and keep Jackson on the sidelines. All things considered, this number is generously high. Look for the clock to keep moving and for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting.