Ben Burns

I'm playing on SD (8* PERS FAV). The Padres took yesterday's opener and I expect them to have the advantage again this evening. Lamet recently made some adjustments. Upon request, he began to throw considerably more silders. In fact, over his last four starts, roughly 45% of his pitches have been sliders. To say that the change has been effective would be an understatement; over that span has got a dominant 2.31 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .136. Admittedly, Leiter Jr. has been effective in relief of late. That said, he hasn't started since Independence Day. While the Padres 30-27 (+6.6) home record may not sound impressive, its a whole lot better than the Phillies' dismal 19-42 (-14.3) mark on the road. I'm going with the home team. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (8* ANNIHILATOR). The Astros couldn't figure out Greinke yesterday and lost for the sixth time in their past seven games. This afternoon should provide an excellent opportunity to get back on track. Peacock is 4-0 (team is 6-1!) in seven road starts and he's got a stellar 2.87 ERA (1.248 WHIP) in those games. As a starter, he's 7-1. The only time, in his last six starts, that he didn't go at least six complete innings was when his day was shortened due to rain. Banda, on the other hand, is 0-2 with an ugly 6.51 ERA in two home starts, averaging less than five innings. At 16-6 (+9.9) their last 22 off a shutout loss and still 36-15 their last 51 I.L. games overall, I expect the Astros to bounce back with a much-needed win.

Both starters should come in with confidence. Bumgarner, in particular, has been outstanding of late. Over his last three starts, the Giants' southpaw sports a superb 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP.

Those three starts came against the likes of the Cubs, Dbax and Dodgers, too. All three of those teams score considerably more than the Marlins. Those three teams rank #5, #6 and #12 in terms of runs scored per game. In fact, they're 2, 3, and 4 in the NL, only Colorado averaging more.  By comparison, the Marlins rank 17th in the majors. Respectable, but not as strong as the offenses Bumgarner has just dominated. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Marlins typically don't hit well against left-handers, either. 

Bumgarner will also have the advantage of facing the Marlins for the first time since 2015. For the season, he's got a 2.71 ERA in 10 starts, the UNDER going 6-3-1. On the road, his ERA dips to a stingy 2.31 to go along with an excellent 0.971 WHIP. 

Like Bumgarner, Straily should feel pretty good about today's matchup. Not only does he have a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts here this season, but he's also 4-0 with a commanding 1.91 ERA (0.741 WHIP!) in four starts vs. SF. Not surprisingly, three of those four games stayed below the number. Expect a well pitched-affair and take a look at the "Under." 

I'm playing on BOSTON (10* PERS FAV). Off yesterday's loss against the Indians, I expect the Red Sox to bounce back with a big win in tonight's opener against the Cards. Admittedly, its been a trying season for Porcello. That said, he's been showing signs of coming around and I quite liked what I saw from him last time out. In six complete innings, Porcello limited the Rays to two runs, on just four hits. He'd go on to record seven K's against only two walks. Leake was far more hittable in his last start. In fact, he gave up a whopping 11 hits in just five innings. While he got bailed out with a lot of run support in that game to avoid a loss, he's 0-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP his last three. The Boston bullpen entered the new week with a stellar 2.30 combined ERA and a 1.104 combined WHIP at home. St. Louis relievers, on the other hand, have a 3.98 combined ERA on the road. These same two starters faced each other, at St. Louis, back in May. The Sox finished on top with a 5-4 win. With Porcello in better current form, look for the Sox to finish on top once again.