Ben Burns

With an O/U line of five, this one has a chance of being a 'push.' The first game had a final score of 4-1. That said, I am expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. Getting the under five goals, at an underdog price, is providing very fair value. Both goalies are highly capable. While the Habs have seen the 'under' go 14-9-1 after allowing four or more goals, the 'under' is also a lucrative 8-1-2 when Vegas has played in the Conference Finals. Consider the Under. 

I'm playing on Italy/Switzerland UNDER the total. The Italians looked strong in their opening game. However, they'll find scoring more difficult in this one. Over the past few years, the Swiss have conceded one goal or less in the vast majority of their games. Italy, meanwhile, has yet to concede a goal this year. The veteran Azzurri defense is very difficult to penetrate. The Swiss know their best chance is to keep this game low-scoring and they'd be happy with a draw. I see the most likely outcomes being Italy winning 1-0, Italy winning 2-0, 1-1 draw, or even a 0-0 draw. One way or another, a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on RUSSIA. These teams both faced a tough opponent in their opening game. The Russians had to go up against Belgium, the #1 ranked team in the world. That was too much for them to handle. Finland was up against Denmark. While the Danes aren't in the same class as Belgium, it was still going to be a tough game for Finland to win. Indeed, Denmark was dominating play before their captain collapsed. That led to a temporary suspension of the game. In the end, Finland benefitted and came away with the fortunate 1-0 win. That's going to make Russia the more desperate team today. I believe that playing in St. Petersburg will give them an edge. It won't be easy but I see them coming away with the much-needed win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Red Sox won a wild one yesterday. I expect the Braves to respond today. The Braves are still 49-29 their last 78, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They're also 5-1 this season, when Anderson starts at home. While the Braves didn't give him any support, Anderson tossed a gem in his last start. He'd allow just four hits through seven shutout innings, at Philadelphia. On the other hand, Richards was roughed up last time out. He'd give up 11 hits and four runs, in 5 1/3 innings. The Braves just had a look at Richards a few weeks ago, too, which is not the case for the Sox with Anderson. Braves bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA/Utah UNDER the total. The defense finally showed up enough to keep last game under the total. Series tied, I'm expecting an even lower-scoring affair this evening. We saw it in the Dallas series and we're seeing it again here. Once the Clippers get down a couple of games, they elevate their defensive intensity. In case you haven't noticed, note that both those series have had identical O/U patterns. In both cases, Game 1 barely finished below the total. In both cases, Games 2 and 3 finished above the number. In both cases, Game 4 stayed below the total. So, what happened in Game 5 of the Dallas/LA series, when it was tied 2-2? A 105-100 final, that score staying beneath the O/U by double-digits. I expect that "pattern" to continue, the UNDER improving to 8-2-2 the past 12 times that the Clippers played in the second round. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Give the Hawks credit for making this a series. Tonight, however, they'll see the best of the 76'ers. Playing this game (and Game 7 if necessary) at home is what the 76'ers worked so hard for during the season. Homecourt will prove significant. Remember, the Hawks are 19-22 on the road while the 76ers are 33-8 (25-15-1 ATS) here at home. Atlanta gets outscored on the road while Philadelphia outscores visiting teams by an average of nearly 10 points per game. The 76ers won 118-102 last game here. The Hawks are 6-10 ATS off an upset win. The 76ers are 10-2-1 ATS off an upset loss. With the 76ers also 4-1 ATS their last five, when tied in a series, expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After getting hammered 10-0 last night, I expect the Twins to bounce back tonight. Ober has made two starts in June. He allowed one runs in four innings, at KC, in the first of those, the Twins winning 2-1. Last time out, facing Houston, he allowed two runs in five innings. In those two games, he had 11 K's against just one walk. That's more enough to earn him another start tonight and it puts him in far better current form than Sheffield. In his two June starts, Sheffield has served up four home runs in 9 2/3 innings. Last time out, he allowed five runs (3 earned) in four innings, the Mariners losing 8-3 to the Tigers. Note that his velocity was down in that game and that the Tigers were hitting him hard. I say the Twins bounce back and improve to 16-9 their past 25, after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. 

I'm playing on KC. The Royals lost a close one yesterday but I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon. While the Royals have been mediocre in day games, the Tigers have really struggled. They're 11-21 when playing during the day. Singer has quietly been solid of late. He's off a quality start against the A's. His last start against the Tigers was also of the quality variety, a 7-5 win a few weeks ago. Skubal has admittedly been better after a tough start. He's also been racking up the K's. That said, he's still got a 6.00 ERA and 1.619 WHIP on the road. He's walked three in each of his last three starts (9 walks, 17 innings) and he allowed 10 baserunners last game. He's also backed by a Detroit offense which scores the fewest runs per game in the AL and by a bullpen which has a combined ERA above six on the road. Enough's enough. Royals respond.