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1* Free Pick on Illinois -125
Illinois enters this Final Four matchup with the most efficient offense in the entire country. They are averaging over 84 points per game and have looked unstoppable during this tournament run.
The biggest edge in this game is found on the glass where Illinois is a legitimate monster. The Illini have posted a massive +16.3 rebounding margin through four tournament games.
UConn is barely a top-100 rebounding team and they were bullied inside during their November meeting. While the Huskies won that early game, Illinois has completely transformed its frontcourt rotation since then.
The Huskies are also limping into Indianapolis with some serious backcourt health concerns. Silas Demary Jr. is trying to play through a Grade 2 high ankle sprain and is clearly not at full strength.
Starting guard Solo Ball is dealing with a chronic wrist injury on his shooting hand that has ruined his perimeter accuracy. His three-point percentage has plummeted from 41 percent last year to just 29 percent this season.
Illinois has the size to punish these physical vulnerabilities with David Mirkovic and 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic. Mirkovic is averaging a double-double in the tournament and will be a handful for Tarris Reed Jr. to manage alone.
UConn depends heavily on their defensive structure, but they cannot stop an Illinois team that is first in the nation in offensive rating. The Illini don't beat themselves with turnovers and they hunt high-quality looks on every possession.
This is a massive revenge spot for an Illinois program that has been eliminated by the Huskies twice in the last two years. The depth and health of the Illini will be the deciding factor in the final ten minutes.
I like the Illinois ML (-125).
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