1* Free Pick on Bills/Vikings: under 44
Minnesota's side of this total is the whole case. The Vikings are averaging just 20 points a game through 7 contests this season while giving up 13.3, and their last 5 games have produced final scores of 15-19, 16-10, 23-13, 15-10 and 23-16. Not one of those cleared 44 combined points.
Now the offense gets worse. Kyler Murray is out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, and Kevin O'Connell flagged the concern immediately after the Detroit loss: "It's sore today, so we're going through a full eval of that." Carson Wentz draws the start, his first game action since Week 2, with rookie-year struggler Max Brosmer behind him. Jauan Jennings is also out with a calf injury, thinning the receiving group behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Jefferson himself still doesn't have a 100-yard game this season.
Buffalo scores, no argument there, but this is the toughest defense on the Bills' schedule. Minnesota is allowing 13.3 points a game, Andrew Van Ginkel is active and leads the team with 6.5 sacks, and Blake Cashman and Josh Metellus anchor a unit stacking double-digit tackle games. Buffalo's protection is banged up too: Dion Dawkins didn't practice all week with a rib injury and is a true game-time decision, and Alec Anderson is questionable with an ankle.
A Wentz-led offense that doesn't push the ball downfield, facing an elite defense on one side and a top pass rush pressuring Josh Allen on the other, sets up as a grind. Give me the Under 44 (-110) in Bills at Vikings.
