Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

If the Nats had a bullpen, they could be 15 games over .500 since the trade deadline. Today, Josh Rogers is pitching and he has been really good and most importantly, gotten deep into games. Tyler Mahle is noticeably worse at home for whatever reason. Juan Soto is the hottest hitter in baseball and the Nats have a couple other players going well right now too. The Reds have been terrible this month so I can’t understand why they are this heavy favorites. Take the value in the Nats.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cards keep winning and keep getting undervalued. At this point, I just think its dumb not to ride the Cardinals until their streak runs out. The Cubs have lost 11 of 13 games while the Cards have won 15 straight games. It is a little bit of a possible letdown spot with the Cardinals beating the franchise record win streak yesterday, however I will keep taking the Cards if they are this cheap. Jake Woodford is stretched out and he has a 1.47 ERA in September. The Cubs will be going with mostly a bullpen game starting with Keegan Thompson and they have the second worst bullpen ERA in the league since the trade deadline. Take the Cards.

Rating: 2 Unit NFL Free Pick - Atlanta at New York

The Giants (0-2) and visiting Atlanta Falcons (0-2) look to record their first win of the season at the other's expense on Sunday when they meet in East Rutherford, N.J. New York followed up a 27-13 season-opening loss to the Denver Broncos on Sept. 12 with a heartbreaking 30-29 setback to the Washington Football Team four nights later. While the negatives are obvious -- the Giants have lost their first two games of a season in five straight years and eight in the last nine. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan hardly would be considered a speedster, however the 36-year-old has accumulated 1,398 yards rushing on the ground in his career. Ryan is best known for his arm, although he threw for just 164 yards in a 32-6 setback in the season opener against Philadelphia. He got back on track last Sunday by throwing for 300 yards in a 48-25 loss at Tampa Bay. Consider that the visitor in this series is 8-2 ATS. The Giants are 3-10 ATS in games when coming off a loss but a point spread win.

Rating: 2 Units

After booing injured QB Andy Dalton at home last week, it’s a good thing the Bears are playing in Cleveland this week. The fans sounded Eagles-esque. With Dalton on the mend with a bruised knee, it appears that Justin Fields is in line to make his first NFL start. Chicago’s 3-9-1 ATS record as road dogs of 6 or more points is likely to come into play, as is Cleveland’s 4-0 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game.

Rating: 2 Units

What a comeback for the Ravens over the Chiefs! Outscored them 12-0 in the 4th quarter. They dealt Mahomes the first loss of his career in September. Lamar Jackson is 14-5-1 ATS on the road in his career & has become the fastest QB since 1970 with 3,000+ rushing yards (48 games). Thus, he now has surpassed Michael Vick (8) for the most games with 100+ pass yards and 100+ rush yards since 1960. In addition, the Lions have coughed up 30 or more points in each of their last eight contests, going 1-7 ATS in the process.

Rating: 5 Units

The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS
in its last five games against NFC West opposition. To cap it off, consider that playing against the defending Super Bowl champion as a non-division road pick or favorite coming off a win in which they scored 48 or fewer points if they own a win percentage of more than .900 and are facing an opponent coming off a win of 14 or fewer points is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Units

Game Three NFL teams are just 24-48-2 ATS in home openers when hosting non-division foes. Given the Niners’ 3-9 ATS record in Sunday Night games when coming off consecutive wins, including 1-8 ATS the last nine games, we gladly hand it off to the fact that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-3-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games

Rating: 4 Unit

Payton brings a 48-28-1 ATS career mark into this contest when coming off a loss, including 24-10 ATS when his team is on the road. On the other side of the coin, the Pats defense is carrying the offense this season while rookie QB Mac Jones learns on the job. Jones was 22-of-30 for 186 yards in last week’s rout of the Jets. With the Pats coming off a division win last week and having
a monster look-ahead to Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs, look for the Saints to be the hungrier team today. Also consider that the Saints head coach Sean Payton is 14-2-1 ATS in his career when coming off a loss and seeking revenge against an opponent coming off a win, including 7-0-1 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville comes into this one still seeking it’s first win which slides right into our under play as game 3 or greater winless home underdogs of +5 > points have gone 5-21 O/U since 2016. The Jaguars could only muster up 13 points in last week’s loss to Denver. Consider that the under is 3-15 O/U last 2 years with all NFL underdogs off a SUATS home dog loss in which they scored less than 14 points (Jaguars), when the OU line is 42 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

The Giants had a rare ‘OVER’ in last Thursday’s game against Washington. But we can’t ignore the fact that New York was the #1 under team in all of football last year (3-12-1 O/U / 0-7 O/U L7 games)... and also had the worst home offense in the NFL (only 16.4 points per game). Consider also that NFL road teams who allowed 45+ points in their previous game (Falcons) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U when the OU line is 52 < pts.

Rating: 3 Units

For the visiting Saints, it’s been a weird two weeks to start the year. On offense, they scored 35 points against Green Bay in Week One, but only 7 points last week vs Carolina. The over is a perfect 15-0 O/U since 2007 for all NFL underdogs who scored 7 < pts and 35 > pts in their last two games (SAINTS). Also consider that NFL teams off a SU division loss in which they rushed for 55 < yards (SAINTS) have gone 16-2 O/U in their next game over the last two seasons. To close it out the Patriots are  17-5 O/U in non-divisional games with OU line 43 < pts.