Matt Fargo

This is a play on the CANISIUS GOLDEN GRIFFINS as part of our CBB Saturday Triple Play Sweeper. Canisius was awful last season as it went 3-17 in the MAAC and 3-28 overall so things can only get better. The Golden Griffins are already a third of the way there as they are 1-0 with an 84-43 win over Allegheny and while it was not a Division I win, it was a win to boost some confidence heading into a rivalry game. This is the second year for head coach Jim Christian and with just two players back from last season, he got to bring in his own group this season after inheriting that team from last year. St. Bonaventure is coming off a very good win over Bradley and the Bonnies are expected to be another middle of the pack team in the Atlantic 10. They have 10 newcomers and they have no business laying this number. This rivalry has gone back and forth and the last 10 meetings have been decided by an average of 6.7 ppg with only one decided by double digits. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points outscored by opponents by six or more ppg last season, in the 1st 5 games of the season, after a blowout win by 30 points or more. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (635) Canisius Golden Griffins

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS as part of our CBB Saturday Triple Play Sweeper. This play is basically based on one factor and that is the fact Boise St. opened the season with a loss against Division II Hawaii Pacific and if there was a line, it would have been north of 40. The Broncos were embarrassed at home and remain home and this has potential to be a bloodbath as head coach Leon Rice will not accept that. Boise St. is picked to finish 1-2 in the MWC and has the two best players on the floor in Andrew Meadow and Dylan Andrews. Utah Valley won the WAC regular season title last season with a 15-1 record but are expected to regress this season as they are picked to finish fourth in the seven-team conference. The Wolverines lost their top three scorers including WAC Player of the Year Dominick Nelson and Defensive Player of the Year Carter Welling. Here, we play against underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points in the first 5 games of the season, a non-tournament team from last season that had a winning percentage between .600 and .800 who won six or more of their last eight games, playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (634) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the LASALLE EXPLORERS as part of our CBB Saturday Triple Play Sweeper. LaSalle is essentially a brand new team as it returns only one player which happened to be a reserve while bringing in a new head coach with Darris Nichols but this is not necessarily a bad thing. The Explorers are extremely experienced with six graduate transfers and two other seniors and are coming off a successful opener. They won 87-59 and while it was only Coppin St., LaSalle did what it plans on doing all season and that is playing stifling defense as it held the Eagles to 35 percent shooting including 4-26 from long range. Expect more of the same here. Monmouth is coming off a non-Division I win over Caldwell so we cannot judge the Hawks by that. They are a middle of the pack team in the Coastal Athletic Association and while they have three starters back, they lost Abdi Bashir, Jr. who led the conference with 20.1 ppg as he transferred to Kansas St. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by 20 points or more going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 2022. 10* (626) LaSalle Explorers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Toronto has now won and covered four straight games, winning all of those by double digits but are in a tough spot here, playing their second back-to-back of the season. The first resulted in a 20-point loss at San Antonio and while that was off a loss against Dallas, this is a similar spot where it is back-to-back road games. The Raptors are 5-4 with this winning streak coming on the heels of a four-game losing streak and this recent streak is not sustainable. Philadelphia opened the season to win its first four games, but the Sixers are 1-3 since, including a 132-121 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday so they have the edge of extended rest against a team playing with no rest. The rest factor is even bigger for the Sixers since Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre Jr. are each playing at least 37 minutes per game. Five players are averaging at least 17.6 ppg with Maxey leading the way with 33.5 ppg which also leads the NBA. There is some revenge in play as Philadelphia was swept in the four-game series last season. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing 114 or more ppg on the season, after a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (562) Philadelphia 76ers

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our Saturday Free Play. Indiana opened at No. 2 in the first CFP ranking behind Ohio St. and the Hoosiers continue to keep on rolling as they are 6-2 over their last eight games. The two non-covers were against Michigan St. by one point and against Iowa by four points so they have been close even when not covering. That being said, Indiana is known for blowing teams out as the games they cover, they cover margin by a big amount but that has taken its toll in some regard to injuries and they have some key ones heading into this season. It has been a lost season for Penn St. as a three-game losing streak cost James Franklin his job and since then there have been two more losses at Iowa and at Ohio St. so the preseason No. 1 team in some places is possibly going to miss a bowl game. The number is this big for a reason but this is their season right here and this will be the inspirational game especially from the defense that has clearly underachieved. This will be the first home start for quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer after the last two games and that can settle him down. Here, we play against road teams averaging 4.8 rushing ypc and after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game going up against teams allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 rushing ypc. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) since 2021. Play (146) Penn St. Nittany Lions

50-41 +$4,710 CFB Run since early September. 10 Winners on Saturday. 26-15 NFL Run. NFL +$22,140 L3+ Regular Seasons and going back +$79,460 run over the last 13 years. 62-45 FB Run. FIVE NFL Winners Sunday.

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Late Night Powerhouse. San Diego St. sits atop the Mountain West Conference at 4-0 and 7-1 overall thanks to a defense that has been one of the best in the country as going back, the Aztecs have allowed 10 points or less in five of their last six games. it is no wonder this line has gone up 2.5 points from the opener but we have the power rating at 3.5 so the adjustment is too big. This is a great team in a horrible spot as Boise St. awaits next week and the Broncos are on a bye making that game that much tougher. Hawaii is coming off a tough loss at San Jose St. by a touchdown which was its second one possession loss this season. The Warriors became bowl eligible for the first time since 2021 in its previous game as they are now 6-3. They return home where they are 4-1 with the lone defeat coming against Fresno St. by two points. Hawaii is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a spread loss and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. 10* (204) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the UTEP MINERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This could be one of the fishiest lines on the board and we are not taking that bait. Jacksonville St. is 4-0 in Conference USA including wins in three straight and the Gamecocks are 2-0 at home and on the road and those two road wins were against Sam Houston and Middle Tennessee St. which are a combined 0-9 in the conference. This is their second straight road game and they head home next week to square off against Kennesaw St. so there is a lookahead possibility as well. Jacksonville St. is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. UTEP has lost five of six games with the only victory coming against winless Sam Houston so it has been a rough stretch. It returns home where it is 1-3 but two of those losses were gettable and now it needs to win out which based on the schedule is doable. The Miners defense is legit as they are No. 8 in EPA, No. 6 in Success Rate and No. 7 in Havok and they face an offense that has not exactly lit it up on the road. 10* (186) UTEP Miners

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. We could see the next head coach get fired after Saturday as Luke Fickel is on the hottest of seats with the Badgers sitting at 2-6 and will have to win out to save his job. The Badgers have lost six straight games but the level of competition has been off the charts with only Maryland being not an elite opposing team. Wisconsin has played the second toughest schedule in the country while sitting No. 107 in the Luck Ratings so it has been very unfortunate. Washington is the opposite at 6-2 following a win over Illinois and the two losses have come against Ohio St. and Michigan so it has been impressive but the Huskies are overvalued here. Facing Maryland, Rutgers and Illinois, not once were they a double-digit favorite. Here, we play on teams averaging 16 or fewer ppg and after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (176) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction. The Hugh Freeze era is done after going 15-19 overall and 6-16 in the SEC so the time came and now the Tigers will be a motivated bunch with the coach bump. DJ Durkin will serve as the interim head coach and things are different and players are embracing it according to reports. Durkin, the defensive coordinator, received a seven-figure pay bump in February, making him one of the highest-paid assistants in the country. Vanderbilt was in the playoff mix for a while and while a loss against Alabama was not the end, a loss to Texas last week likely was and that puts the Commodores in a tough spot here. Both of those losses were on the road and now they are back home and bring in a defense with an EPA at No. 103 compared to an Auburn defense that has an EPA at No. 18 and the Success Rate differential is just as big. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 55-23 ATS (70.5 percent). 10* (167) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We are catching a good number with Missouri which has lost two of three, the two losses coming against Alabama by three at home and Vanderbilt by seven on the road. The Tigers are back home following a pair of road games after starting the season with six straight home games and Faurot Field is going to be jacked up. The defense continues to dominate as they are No. 16 in EPA and No. 5 in Success Rate and they will be out for revenge following a 41-10 loss at Texas A&M after a 4-0 start where they were No. 9 in the country. The Aggies are 8-0 and ranked near the top of the CFP and deservedly so. Three of the wins have been by one possession, two on the road and speaking of the road, this is their third straight road game. And they are No. 1 in Luck Ratings. Here, we play on home teams after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (164) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. Maryland is now 4-4 following a 55-10 loss against Indiana which was its fourth straight loss after opening 4-0. The other three losses were by a combined 10 points against Washington, Nebraska and UCLA so things should be a lot better and they take a step down here. Recent rumors about Maryland head coach Mike Locksley being fired are false, and the school has confirmed he is not going anywhere, despite recent struggles that led to the rumors and that will fire a team up. Rutgers is now 4-5 and struggling as well with losses in five of six and this defense is awful as the Scarlet Knights are No. 133 in Defensive EPA while allowing 31 points or more in four of the five losses and that includes 38 points against Iowa. Here, we play on teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game going up against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2016. 10* (149) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Stanford has been a pleasant surprise in what was considered a lost season with an interim head coach to open the season. The Cardinal were picked to finish dead last in the ACC and that will not happen as they still remain bowl eligible but at 3-6, they have to win out. It is unlikely as they close with Notre Dame so take one game at a time. Stanford has a bye on deck before facing rival California so there is no liability for hitting the east coast and while they are 0-5 on the road, all five losses have been against teams bowl eligible with three of those ranked in the CFP. North Carolina is not bowl eligible but can still get there as it is 3-5 following a win over Syracuse, snapping a four-game losing streak. There is a lookahead with three straight rivals on deck. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (143) Stanford Cardinal

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. This is a matchup where we have two teams with different motivational levels as Bowling Green is now 3-6 following its third straight loss following that huge upset over Toledo where it came back from a 21-0 deficit. The Falcons need to win out plain and simple to become bowl eligible and the schedule could not be better starting here and then facing Akron, which is ineligible for a bowl, and Massachusetts, the worst team in FBS. The quarterback situation has been a mess but we are not concerned here. Eastern Michigan lost to Miami Ohio and Ohio prior to its bye week to fall to 2-7 to become no longer bowl eligible so the motivation level is low. The Eagles only two wins have come against Louisiana and Northern Illinois by a combined nine points and they come in favored here despite having nothing to play for. Eastern Michigan is 3-13 in its last 16 home games after being outgained by 125 or more points in its previous. 10* (153) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. It has been a long season for Boston College which fell to 1-8 following a 15-point loss to Notre Dame which came after a 14-point loss at Louisville. Sure those losses were bigger than what the Eagles are getting here but they take a step down and we have actually seen this line come down. Head coach Bill O’Brien had a rant to the media this week that talked his team up pretty good and they can rally around that. This is a revenge game as they lost in Dallas which prevented a four-game winning streak to end the season. Boston College is 5-0 ATS in its last five November games. SMU became bowl eligible with an overtime win over Miami at home as a 10-point underdog so that sets up a letdown spot and now the Mustangs have to travel to the Northeast for the first time as an ACC member. They are 2-2 on the road, defeating Missouri St. and Clemson with the latter no longer impressive. SMU is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 road games. 10* (136) Boston College Eagles

This is a play on the COLORADO BUFFALOES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Colorado and West Virginia both need a win to avoid a seventh loss and become non-bowl eligible and this is the spot where we take the points. West Virginia comes in off an upset win at Houston as it won by 10 points as a 13.5-point underdog to remain in the bowl hunt. Overall, the Mountaineers are getting outscored by 17.8 ppg in Big 12 Conference games and head home where they are 2-2 but the wins are against Robert Morris of the FCS and in the Backyard Brawl. Colorado got rolled by Arizona after getting rolled at Utah and the Buffaloes hit the road where they are 0-3 but the three losses were against teams a combined 20-6. The scoring differential is close as Colorado is getting outscored by 17.9 ppg in Big 12 Conference games and they have a bye on deck. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by 7 or more ppg, after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (133) Colorado Buffaloes