Matt Fargo

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Denver escaped with a win against the Texans last week as it won 16-9 following a season opening loss at Seattle and with the two unexpected results, the Broncos come in as home underdogs. A lot of this can be attributed to head coach Nathaniel Hackett who has made some questionable calls and is already considered a questionable hire but he should settle in once he gets more familiar with his personnel. To be fair, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 16 in QBR as he is completing fewer than 59 percent of his passes but he can be given a hall pass here being involved in a brand new system and now in his third game, he should only get better even though he will be facing the best defense he has seen through three games. The Broncos defense has been strong since a slow start against Seattle in the opener as they have not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters. We can see Denver improving game-by-game going forward and can show what is has right here. The 49ers lost quarterback Trey Lance for the season but having the best backup in the league helps as Jimmy Garoppolo came in and had a decent game, going 13-21 for 154 yards and a touchdown but the offense was not great overall with just 373 total yards. Garoppolo is definitely an upgrade here based on his experience and his 37-18 record as a starter in the NFL but as mentioned, he will be facing a tough defense here and easily the best one the 49ers have faced in the early part of the season. Similar to Denver, San Francisco has played no one so it is hard to get a measure on this team especially playing its first game in horrible weather but we do know this is a good roster but not in a good spot here with the Broncos playing their second primetime game and first one at home. This is definitely an overreaction line from last week as the line has flipped from Denver being favored at home, which it should be, to the 49ers now being favored based on the lookahead line. 10* (488) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets are coming off a miracle win over the Browns and the reason it can be considered a miracle is that they were a Cleveland kneel down away from losing 23-14 but Nick Chubb elected to take the touchdown allowing enough time for a touchdown drive-onsides kick recovery-touchdown drive finish for New York. The Jets were getting dominated up to that point as they had been outgained in the fourth quarter 136-8 going into those final two drives. Joe Flacco looked like the Joe Flacco that once ruled the powerful Ravens offense but we cannot see him putting together another effort like last week. But wait. He has produced two straight 300+ yard games passing so maybe New York is on to something here as opposed to starting Mike White but it took Flacco 103 pass attempts to get to those numbers and his 6.0 yards per attempt average is tied for No. 28 in the league and he happens to be tied with his opponent but more on that later. If the Jets had lost like they should have, this line would be a lot higher. Cincinnati has fallen into the Super Bowl hangover scenario as it has lost its first two games against teams that did not start the same quarterback last season. That is not ideal and while teams have had a hard time getting into the playoffs after a 0-2, this is the ideal matchup to right the ship. After a five-turnover and seven-sack game against the Steelers in Week One, Joe Burrow was sacked six times against Dallas as the offensive line, which made offseason improvements, has not looked good but the first two games were against good pass rushing defenses and Burrow will not be facing big pressure for the first time. The Jets have only three sacks and five pressures this season per Pro Football Reference so we should see Burrow go off for a big game finally. Cincinnati has moved from -6 to -4.5 based on the results from last week after being -7 last week at Dallas and while the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott and a few other key starters, the Jets are not nearly a field goal better than the current Dallas team so there is solid value here. 10* (465) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. No one in the public wants to bet on a team that was shutout in its previous game but that is exactly what we are going against here. The Colts were blanked 24-0 against Jacksonville which was shockingly their eight straight loss to the Jaguars on the road. That dropped them to 0-1-1 following a tie against the Texans in Week One and to come away without a victory against the two worst teams in the division is a problem. It was a tale of two different games as Indianapolis racked up 517 yards against Houston and that total offensive output went down by nearly 300 yards against the Jaguars as Matt Ryan was terrible by going 16-30 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions but he is now playing in his first home game. the situation could not be much worse for the Colts as 0-2 teams struggle to make the postseason and with the third game against a Super Bowl contender, it may look bleak but a close game is all we need with this number. The majority of the money has come in on the Chiefs yet the line has come down with sharp action taking more priority so we are getting a solid reverse line move and the public could push this number back up closer to game time. The Chiefs have looked every bit the Super Bowl contender as they destroyed Arizona and then took out the Chargers are home last Thursday night but are now in a tough spot going back on the road against a desperate team. There is not much bad to say about Kansas City as the offense has been just fine without Tyreke Hill but the defense did struggle last week as it allowed over 400 yards and was bailed out by a pick six from 99 yards that caused a 14-point swing and ended up being the difference but still failed to cover. The Chiefs may have a lookahead as they have a big game at Tampa Bay next week. NFL home underdogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 occurrences. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that was a good offensive team from last season averaging 24 or more. This situation is 46-23 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (472) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC Game of the Month. The Falcons have looked better than expected through the first two game as they lost a tough one at home against the Saints and fell short in the comeback against the Rams last week. This would normally be a tough travel situation for Atlanta playing out west in back-to-back weeks but the Falcons have practiced in Seattle all week instead of making another round trip to the west coast and that is a big edge. The Falcons have a big edge in this matchup in the running game as they are ranked No. 7 offensively and No. 15 defensively and going up against bad rushing units on both sides. Marcus Mariota has done a decent job in his first season in Atlanta as he is ranked No. 11 in QBR at 59.4 and his completion percentage of 62.7 percent should see a big increase here against a Seattle defense that is without its best player in safety Jamal Adams who is gone for the season. And he has done this without tight end Kyle Pitts who has only four catches which is surprising with Mariota typically targeting tight ends in check down spots. This is only the second time that the Seahawks have been favored with Geno Smith at quarterback with the first coming against Jacksonville last season and while the Falcons are not considered a very good team, the Seattle offense has really only had one good quarter on offense through the first two games. The only scoring for the Seahawks last week came from an 86-yard blocked field goal return by Mike Jackson as the offense stalled with a poor game from Smith and no running game to back him up. The Seahawks have been outgained 806-469 in their first two games and they are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing at only 56 ypg. The defense has been ok but not enough to carry the anemic offense as the Seahawks are ranked No. 24 in total defense and passing defense and No. 25 in rushing defense and while the scoring defense is ranked No. 15, that can be attributed to the two Denver fumbles near the goal line that resulted in zero points. This is not a good team at any level. 10* (483) Atlanta Falcons