Matt Fargo

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our Sunday Free Play. UAB and Florida Atlantic come in with identical 9-7 records including 2-1 marks in the American Athletic Conference but they have come in different ways. The Owls are back home following a pair of road wins and of their 16 overall games, only five have been at home. One of those losses was in the conference against Memphis with the other coming against Florida Gulf Coast by two points early in the season. That was a rare Quad 4 game as they have only played three, going 2-1, the two wins by nine and 11 points and all of this put together has given them the No. 46 ranked schedule in the country. UAB is also coming off a pair of wins but both were at home and the Blazers hit the road where they are 0-2. To their credit, both losses were by three points but this is a much more difficult spot based on the schedule and speaking of schedule, they have played the No. 359 ranked slate which equates to the fifth easiest schedule in the country. They have played 10 Quad 4 games while going 0-5 in Quad 1-Quad 3 games. Play (862) Florida Atlantic Owls

Over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Matt is 179-152-4 (+$12,880). 3 NFL Winners remaining highlighted by NFL Game of the Year! 3 CBB Winners Sunday including Big 12 Game of the Month. 8-4 Bowl Run. Two NBA Winners.

This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS as part of our NBA Sunday Double Play. The beat up Nets are coming off their fourth straight loss, a 19-point loss at Denver and they have failed to cover those four games as well. Brooklyn remains on the road for the second game of its six-game roadtrip and it has been a better team on the road than at home and takes a big step down in competition here. The Nets are 6-1 this season coming off a double-digit road loss and this is the first of two straight winnable games with a game at Portland on deck. Utah has lost three straight games but has covered all three and going back, the Jazz have covered five consecutive games. Three of those were on the road and just like the Nets, that is where they are better as they come in with a 2-14 home record. Based on the opponent, they come in as the favorite which is the first time the entire season they are laying points at home. Here, we play against teams against the money line off two covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 81-35 (69.8 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +4.1 ppg. 10* (543) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS as part of our NBA Sunday Double Play. Some were balking at the decision for the Kings to fire head coach Mike Brown but the Kings are 6-1 since firing Brown and, per Evan Sidery at Forbes, they now have a 117.8 Offensive Rating, which is No. 5 in the league, a Defensive Rating of 108.7, also No. 5, and a Net Rating of +9.1, again No. 5 in the NBA. Included along the way are impressive wins over Dallas, Golden St., Miami and most recently, at Boston. This is the time to sell high and going back, Sacramento is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after having won six or seven of its last eight games. Chicago is playing well in its own right as it has won five of its last seven games including a win by 33 points over Washington last time out. A win over the Wizards is not overly impressive obviously but a blowout win is and the Bulls are 6-10 against the top ten in the league where Sacramento has snuck into and those six wins are tied for sixth most in the league. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 114 or more ppg on the season going up against an opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +5.0 ppg. 10* (534) Chicago Bulls

This is a play on the COLORADO BUFFALOES for our CBB Sunday Big 12 Game of the Month. West Virginia had a seven-game winning streak snapped with a 19-point loss at home against Arizona, which was a revenge game for the Wildcats after losing the first meeting in November, and now have to trek out west on the road where it is 1-1. That lone win was a huge one at Kansas but this is another difficult spot and based on the number, they are overvalued. The Mountaineers have played only one Quad 2 game and that was at home which resulted in a win over Georgetown which was a true home game. Colorado has lost three straight games following a four-game winning streak with the last loss being by just one point at UCF which was a strong performance considering the Knights were coming off a 51-point loss. The Buffaloes are back home where they are 8-1, the lone loss coming against Iowa St., which is No. 7 in the NET Rankings, the second loss this season against the Cyclones. This is also just their second Quad 2 game, the first being that loss in Orlando against UCF. 10* (858) Colorado Buffaloes

This is a play on the FAIRFIELD STAGS for our CBB Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Marist is off to an 11-2 start including a 4-0 start in the MAAC so they are overvalued laying a big number based on that record. Consistent winning is hard in these lower conferences so give the Red Foxes credit for that but they have played the second easiest schedule in the country heading into the Saturday games. All 13 games have been Quad 4 games so they have not been tested and they are No. 15 in the Luck Ratings, which makes them the 15th most fortunate team in the country as of those 11 wins, nine have come by seven points or less. Fairfield is coming off a win over Iona which snapped a five-game losing streak and a three-game non-cover streak. The Stags are 6-9 overall and 2-2 in the conference with a team that is expected to contend once again. Four of their nine losses have been in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games so they have been much more tested and of their five Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses, three have been within the number they are getting on Sunday. 10* (851) Fairfield Stags

This is a play on the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS for our CBB Sunday Signature Enforcer. Michigan St. has won eight straight games including a 34-point blowout win at home over Washington on Thursday. The Spartans improved to 4-0 in the Big Ten Conference and they have covered all of those as well and they are back on the road where they are 2-0 in true road games and 2-2 in Quad 1 games overall. The two wins were against North Carolina and Ohio St. by a combined 10 points and this is the dangerous spot where the public will be all over Michigan St. laying the short number. Northwestern fell to 1-3 in the conference after an 18-point loss at Purdue last Sunday, its second straight loss following a four-game winning streak. The Wildcats are back home for a pair of games after having to play three of their first four conference games on the road. The lone home game resulted in a win over Illinois, which is No. 6 in the NET Rankings, and that victory is part of their 8-0 record in Evanston. Northwestern is 1-4 in Quad 1 games but all four losses were true road games, three losses by 10 points combined. 10* (840) Northwestern Wildcats

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This line has been all over the place as the Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites in some spots, immediately went to 4.5 before then going to 5.5 and now coming back down to 4.5. No matter the move, the line opened too high in a rematch from opening week in Brazil in a game that was won by the Eagles by five points but could have gone either way with the teams separated by just four total yards. Green Bay closed the season with a pair of two-point losses to finish 11-6 which is an over the top record for a No. 7 seed and they are right on plane in this rematch. The Packers finished No. 8 in Offensive EPA and No. 4 in Defensive EPA, one of only three teams in the postseason in the top ten in both categories, joining Philadelphia and Detroit. The Eagles got off to a sluggish 2-2 start but went on to win 10 straight games before a loss against Washington and then won a pair of meaning less divisional games to close the season. Philadelphia has one of the best rosters in the NFL, there is no doubt, but there are some concerns on both sides heading into this game. While they finished 14-3, it came against a schedule ranked No. 31 in the NFL compared to the Packers that played the No. 10 ranked schedule so the top ten EPA rankings are a bit skewed. We feel these teams are more even than what the line is saying and should be at 3. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.2 ppg. 10* (381) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Buffalo heads into the postseason off a loss at New England in a meaningless game where starters were rested and while some say that kills momentum, not with this team. This Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. The Broncos put together a great season that was unexpected with rookie quarterback Bo Nix who beat out Jarrett Stidham in the preseason for the starting spot and he has been very good with a 93.3 passer rating. Now comes a real test in a real environment. Denver had two wins against playoff teams in the regular season, this past Sunday over Kansas City and a Week Three victory over the Buccaneers where Tampa Bay was off a win at Detroit and Philadelphia on deck so it was a sleepy spot for the home team. Here, we play against road underdogs after three consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 47-6 (88.7 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +10.7 ppg and this system is 7-0 this season. 10* (380) Buffalo Bills