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| Matchup | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs Heat | Heat -3 -110 | Top Premium | 134-126 | Loss | -110 | |
| This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami had won seven straight games but then lost a home game against Southeast Division leader Orlando and followed that up with a loss at Charlotte on Tuesday. The Heat are back home where they are 23-12 with this being the third game of a seven-game stretch against current playoff teams so holding serve at home is going to be vital. They are a half-game behind Orlando and sitting in the first spot of the Play In Tournament which they need to get out of. We have faded the Lakers in their last two games and they won both in Houston and we are fading them again in the second of a back-to-back. They now have seven straight wins and covers while going 10-1 straight up and ATS over their last 11 games and the current winning streak in their second seven-game run of the season. Here, we play against road teams allowing 46 percent shooting or higher on the season, after a game where they made 60 percent of their shots or better. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) since 2022. 10* (562) Miami Heat | ||||||
| Texas A&M vs St. Mary's | St. Mary's -3 -110 | Top Premium | 63-50 | Loss | -110 | |
| This is a play on the ST. MARY’S GAELS for our CBB Thursday Enforcer. This game is a contrast of styles as Texas A&M is going to want to turn this into a track meet while the Gaels will want to play a possession game by spreading the ball and taking threes with their strong efficiency where they are hitting 38.6 percent) which is No. 13 in the country. Their defense is also one of the best as they are No. 19 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Texas A&M was 17-4 at the end of January but closed the season 4-7 which included a 20-point loss in its opening game of the SEC Tournament. St. Mary’s is shooting 81.1 percent from the free throw line which is the best in the country and teams shooting 77 percent or higher from the free throw line are 97-56-2 ATS (63.4 percent) since 2008. When the line is four points or fewer, those teams are 39-19 ATS (67.2 percent). 10* (730) St. Mary’s Gaels | ||||||
| Pennsylvania vs Illinois | Illinois -24 -115 | Top Premium | 70-105 | Win | 100 | |
| This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our CBB Thursday Annihilator. Illinois is our sleeper Final Four team coming out of the South Region as this team has a chip on its shoulder after blowing a big lead against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. The Illini will most likely have to get by Houston and Florida to get there and while they have the roster and the ability to do so, we are not worrying about that now. Illinois lost seven games this season with all of those in Quad 1 games, five by four points or less in three in overtime and with this being outside that, they have rolled to a 17-0 record and this is a complete mismatch. Because they take threes at more than 50 percent of their shots, there are plenty of misses and the Illini are No. 3 in Offensive Rebounding Percentage and they are going to destroy Penn on the boards. The Quakers get rolled. 10* (724) Illinois Fighting Illini | ||||||
| VCU vs North Carolina | VCU +2½ -105 | Top Premium | 82-78 | Win | 100 | |
| This is a play on the VCU RAMS for our CBB Thursday Contrarian Crusher. VCU got into the NCAA Tournament thanks to winning the Atlantic Ten Tournament and if it had lost, the Rams may have been left out which would have been a travesty considering they finished 16-1 in their last 17 games. They are catching a very short number in a 6-11 matchup against a public name which is telling. North Carolina was hoping to have Caleb Wilson back from his thumb injury but he broke his hand nearing return and that will hurt this team on both ends. They did play good without Wilson but eight of their 12 ACC wins were against teams not in the tournament and overall, they went 18-0 in Quad 2 - Quad 4 games and that is where this game does not fall. Two intangibles not in their favor, they do not force turnovers and they are not good at the free throw line. 10* (721) VCU Rams | ||||||
| Siena vs Duke | Siena +28½ -115 | Top Premium | 65-71 | Win | 100 | |
| This is a play on the SIENA SAINTS for our CBB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. Duke is the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament slightly over Michigan and Arizona and it is overpriced in the opener for obvious reasons. Duke is not looking for anything more than to get out of here injury free as the Blue Devils are already banged up with guard Caleb Foster out and Patrick Ngongba, Jr. likely out again. Siena is finally back in the tournament and the goal is to keep it respectable and the Saints do not have to change their style as they are one of the slowest teams in the country, sitting No. 359 in pace. Duke will try and run more but they are slow as well, ranked No. 277 in pace. Siena is shooting 77 percent from the free throw line and that is the magic number as teams shooting 77 percent or higher from the free throw line are 97-56-2 ATS (63.4 percent) since 2008. 10* (717) Siena Saints | ||||||
| St. Louis vs Georgia | St. Louis +2½ -115 | Top Premium | 102-77 | Win | 100 | |
| This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BILLIKENS for our CBB Thursday Late Powerhouse. St. Louis was closer to the NCAA Tournament bubble after losing early in the Atlantic 10 Tournament but the Billikens were never really in jeopardy by solidifying a No. 9 seed. They could cause some problems and the early A-10 exit could benefit going forward. They are balanced with seven players averaging at least nine ppg while sitting No. 3 in Effective Field Goal Percentage and on the defensive end, St. Louis is No. 2 in Effective Field Goal Percentage and both ends are a combined tough inside and outside the perimeter. Georgia has been tough to figure out this season but one thing is real and that is the Bulldogs struggle on defense and of their 22-10 record, 10 of those wins were Quad 3 and Quad 4 and this game falls into Quad 1 where Georgia has gone 2-5 in its last seven games. 10* (715) St. Louis Billikens | ||||||
