Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Hyun Jin Ryu in this one. He has been an underrated starting pitcher for several years in a row. Ryu is very solid. He has excellent control and he does a great job limiting hard contact even on pitches inside the strike zone. 

The Boston Red Sox are first in the majors in batting average on balls in play this year. They are at .333 which is unsustainable on BABIP. They have clearly had some good fortune. Boston is a good offense, but they aren't this good. Their recent hot stretch has this price out of whack in my opinion.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher, but he has been much better in the second half of the season in his career, and he has been far less consistent than Ryu. 

This is a nice buy price on the Blue Jays.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Harvey looked terrible in 2019 and 2020. He's looked slightly better in 2021 in the early going, but he still has a terrible 6.9% swinging strike rate. Harvey has gotten a lot of swings out of the zone in the early going, but I think that will come back to earth going forward. Harvey isn't a good pitcher at this stage of his career.

Nick Neidert might be good in the future, but he hasn't been good so far. He has serious control problems. He also has a whiff rate in the 7th percentage of pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. His xERA is 8.62 this season. Neidert can't be trusted either.

These two offenses have been inconsistent, but this is a low total for these two pitchers. Remember, both of these bullpens behind the starters are weak as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox travel to Cleveland for a big divisional game on Tuesday evening. 

Carlos Rodon pitched a no hitter the last time out against the Indians. I'm certainly not expecting him to be as dominant here, but I think he will pitch well again. Rodon didn't throw a ridiculous amount of pitches in his no hitter (114). Many of the pitchers who have struggled in their next start threw 125 pitches or more in that no hitter. Additionally, Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball (bottom 5). They have struggled with left handed pitching for several years in a row. Rodon has better road numbers in his career vs. at home. 

Zach Plesac was blasted last time out by the White Sox, but I expect better from him here. Plesac has allowed only a .272 OBP at home in his career. Plesac gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't a terrible thing given the weather conditions for this game.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 30's during this game. The winds are expected to be blowing in from center field at 10-15 mph. The wind does matter quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under here.