Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are playing good baseball now. New York has been a streaky team this year, but they have a bullpen pitching well and an offense coming through with timely hits.

The Yankees have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. Boston is the opposite. The Red Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average against righties, but they are 8th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has really struggled against this Yankees lineup in his career. The current Yankees lineup has an impressive .374 wOBA against Rodriguez in 184 at bats. 

Jordan Montgomery has been really solid for the Yankees this year. He isn't overpowering, but he keeps them in the game and provides quality innings. The Red Sox lineup only has a mediocre .314 wOBA against him.

Take New York at this plus money price.

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Miami Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing 35-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Tua was hurt in that game and Jacoby Brissett entered that game and didn't appear ready to go. 

Now, Brissett has known all week that he starts, and he should be much better. it also helps that he is going against a Raiders defense that isn't very good. Miami will be helped by Fuller being back on the field. The Raiders secondary is a clear weakness and I think Miami has the weapons to make them pay.

Derek Carr is a hot and cold quarterback. He can look great or he can look bad. The Dolphins secondary is elite. I don't think Carr will have as many open receivers as he has had in his first couple games. Both the Steelers and Ravens defense were severely shorthanded when the Raiders beat them.

In the NFL, teams who were blown out the week before often have value. Teams coming off a game with less than 10 points and who are receiving 30% of the bets or less (Miami fits this angle) 137-78 ATS (63.7% ATS covers) since 2005. The public is all over the Raiders here. 

Jon Gruden is 19-31-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more dating back to 2003. With the Raiders, he is 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.

Take Miami. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under.