Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range. 

Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under.

The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this.

I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% System SMASHER* The Golden State Warriors shot the ball terribly in Game 4, and they now have to come home and finish things off against the Spurs here. 

The San Antonio Spurs know they have lost this series. They have a lot of pride and were able to fight to win one game, but I don't think this game will be very competitive. I wouldn't expect the Warriors to shoot the ball so poorly again, and the Spurs have been a really bad road team of late.

I have several systems I follow in the NBA during the playoffs- and one of them gives me a nice 14-0 angle here. 

The 14-0 ATS angle is as follows: Backing a home favorite with a win percentage of 64% or higher against a team with a win percentage of 64% or lower when the home favorite is off a loss by at least 11 points in the previous game. The home favorite must have an overall ATS record on the season of 50% or lower as well. Golden State meets this angle.

If you get rid of the team ATS must be lower than 50%- the angle is 33-9-1 ATS (78.6%). In all, backing a home favorite off a blowout has been a great play. Golden State should take care of business here.

Take the Warriors. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* The Texas Rangers were going to be way down this year before injury trouble hit them, but with the injuries added in I expect this to be a really rough season for the Rangers. Their starting pitching is awful. The lineup isn't as good as it was in past years- and now they are without Andrus and Odor. 

Cole Hamels was an ace in the past, but he is no longer a true ace. Hamels used to allow hard hit rates that were extremely low (in the 26 or 27% range). Last year the percentage of balls hit hard against Hamels jumped to 36%. This year the rate is an extreme 42.5% thus far. Hamels is a mediocre pitcher now. 

The A's lineup has a tremendous .411 OBP and a .442 weighted on base average against Hamels- and that came when Hamels was better than he is now. Oakland has a really deep lineup and I expect their offense to continue to be very good. 

Triggs is a decent starter for the A's and in 31 plate appearances against him, Rangers hitters have only two hits. That's a small sample size so I didn't read much into it, but Triggs has a deceptive delivery that can take some getting accustomed to.

This price is too cheap for the healthier and better team.

Take Oakland.