Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series. 

Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games. 

Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186. 

The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions. 

If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over.

Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* John Means isn't a guy the Orioles can count on going deep into the game. In his two starts he has gone a combined 8 innings. The White Sox are a bit better offensively against left-handed pitching than righties. Means is a subpar lefty. 

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen is awful. Baltimore's bullpen ranks last in the majors by nearly half a run in FIP at 6.30. 

Ervin Santana starts here for the White Sox. Santana was decent a couple years ago for the Twins, but last year he came back from injury with a huge velocity drop. Santana was throwing his average fastball at 93.6 mph a couple years ago. Now, he consistently sits at 89 or 90 mph. That's a big difference. Santana is giving up a lot of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate below 5% (very low) last year and this year. 

The White Sox bullpen ranks 21st in the majors, so they aren't very good either.

The over is 12-1 in the Orioles last 13 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Colorado Rockies are laying too big of a number here. I've waited on this line and it kept getting higher and higher. It was time to pull the trigger. Washington doesn't have Bryce Harper in the lineup, but the Nationals offense even without Harper isn't any weaker than the Rockies lineup.

German Marquez is a good pitcher, but he has some drastic home/road splits. Coors Field hasn't been kind to him. 

Anibal Sanchez is far from a great pitcher, but he added some new pitches last year and was pretty good. He has pitched well in his two starts at Coors Field as well.

A big plus money price on the better overall team.

Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers and Cardinals have two of the best offenses in the National League. Jhoulys Chacin and Adam Wainwright have been very shaky so far this year, and neither of these bullpens have been very good either.

Wainwright was a star pitcher at one point, but he is hanging on right now and simply isn't very good. Wainwright has a bad combination of poor control and he ranks bottom 6% in the majors in fastball velocity. So far this year, his hard hit rate is at the worst percentage in his career. 

Chacin is averaging 5.18 walks per nine innings this year. His control has been much worse this season. Chacin has a 5.66 ERA in his career against the Cardinals.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate and he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tight strike zone. That hurts both pitchers quite a bit here since both of these guys struggle with their control.

Take the over here.