Kyle Hunter

*4 Star Play Under* Before the season new Fairfield coach Jay Young said of his team "Scoring is going to be a big concern." First of all, it is very rare you'll see a coach say that about their team before a season. At the same time, it is refreshing to see someone who just is honest and calls out their weakness from day one. 

Indeed it has been a struggle for Fairfield on the offensive end. Fairfield ranks 303rd in offensive efficiency so far this year. The Stags are averaging 61 points per game in regulation in their first three contests. They are also playing at an extremely slow tempo. They are looking to turn these games into grinders.

Loyola Maryland has played to the pace of the opponent most of the time the last couple seasons. The Greyhounds aren't likely to be out in transition too much here. They scored only 53 points on Marquette and 53 points against Old Dominion as well.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have made it abundantly clear in their first four games that they want to stall. Dartmouth ranks 339th in the nation in average possession length. This ranks them among the 15 slowest teams in the country. 

It's pretty rare to see a total set this high when one team is playing so slowly. Dartmouth's final totals so far this year have been 131 points, 104 points, 101 points, and 94 points. 

UMass Lowell was willing to play a slow paced game with Merrimack yesterday. This one will likely be played quicker than that game, but I still see a tempo in the mid 60's (possessions) as likely. 

Both teams have been good at defending without fouling the last couple seasons. They have both also been good at clearing defensive rebounds.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Stony Brook both want to play at a slow pace. These are two teams who are comfortable playing physical halfcourt games where possessions are at a premium. Both teams are good on the defensive glass, which should limit how many second chance opportunities there are in this one.

This is a neutral site game in Texas in the early afternoon. Neither team is close at all to home and this is a relatively large arena (8,500 capacity) that will be mostly empty for this game. These situations are helpful for the under. The shooting backdrop isn't as good in these cases. 

North Dakota State relies on the 3 ball a lot, and the 3 point line being moved back this year could hurt their efficiency. Stony Brook has a lot of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are playing a stingy zone defense. Joe Gallo is known for his defensive prowess, and he has this new Division I team working really hard in their unique zone defense. This is a morphing zone where they deny far more passes to the wing than most zones do. They held Northwestern to 61 points. They then held Dartmouth to 55 points. Yesterday, they held UMass Lowell to 58 points.

Merrimack wants to slow the game down. They rank 316th overall in the country in tempo. They settle for too many bad 3 pointers on the offensive end.

Jacksonville is 265th in overall tempo and 302nd in average possession length. They should be happy to play a slow tempo here as well.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Jets* I have to fade the Washington Redskins here. Haskins simply does not look ready. The Redskins haven't surrounded him with much either. Washington badly wants to run the football right now, but the Jets defense is excellent against the run. In fact, the Jets rank number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.

Sam Darnold has been up and down this year, but I definitely feel better about him than Haskins at this point. The Jets also seem to want to win, and the Redskins have been rumored to be tanking this season. 

In a game that should be really ugly and low scoring, I'll always want to lean toward taking the points. In this case, I definitely want the points since the Jets defense should force Haskins to beat them. 

Take the New York Jets. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well.

Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well.

These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle.

The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. 

Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. 

New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here.

The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too.

The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. 

Take the over.