Jim Feist

Houston lost the first two games despite the offense generating chances. The Astros out-hit Baltimore during Saturday’s 4-2 extra-innings loss and placed 11 runners on base while never failing to have a runner in scoring position. Essentially, Houston left too many runners on base. Clean up that issue and it can turn some heads Sunday. Brandon Young will take the ball for Baltimore. The Orioles right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.42 ERA and has pitched at least five innings during each of his last nine starts. Houston has owned Young in recent history, however. Baltimore’s starter has surrendered 17 runs (11 earned) across just 9- innings over his last two starts against the Astros. Houston hitters should feel good seeing Baltimore pitching after three games this weekend. Hunter Brown will match wits with Young. The Astros right-hander has yet to lose a game (1-0) thanks to a 3.57 ERA. He’s struggled with consistency since recovering from a shoulder injury. Brown struck out 22 hitters over 24-innings across five starts after being activated. His control must improve after issuing 16 walks during that span, but he has good stuff. Brown should be able to limit damage if he can work ahead in counts because his fastball-slider combo generates plenty of swing-and-miss. Brown has a career batting average against of .329 against Baltimore. However, he allowed one earned run on five hits over six innings in his last meeting with the Orioles. Expect something similar from Brown and Houston will have a good chance. Factor in how well Houston has hit Baltimore pitching lately and this feels like the Astros’ time to win. They’re also playing with something of a fire here. Houston wants to avoid getting swept at home. The Astros have lost five of six games and are currently riding their third consecutive losing streak. However, they remain within shouting distance of the AL West leaders. Clubs in Houston’s position tend to play aggressively. That usually means leaning on their best relievers earlier and playing the matchup late in games. Baltimore enters play riding a six-game winning streak. That makes Sunday’s game an uphill battle for Houston. The Astros should still pull out a win if Brown minimizes walks and Houston converts some of the chances it left on Baltimore’ outfield grass during the first two games. Jim's Play: 964. Astros

Milwaukee enters Sunday’s series finale with several advantages over Miami. The Brewers have the better overall team profile and home-field advantage. They also own momentum, having won each of the first two games of the series. Milwaukee cruised to a series opener win before topping Miami 8-6 on Saturday to improve to 61-37. The Brewers have the chance to sweep the Marlins series despite injuries along their lineup. Milwaukee found a way to score four runs in one rally Saturday and received contributions from across their lineup, highlighted by a two-run double from Garrett Mitchell. Miami lost on Saturday and has now dropped five games in a row. Miami will send right-handed starter Eury Perez to the mound, while Milwaukee counters with left-hander Robert Gasser. Gasser is coming off of six solid innings against Miami and is just 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA. Perez has better stuff, as his seven scoreless innings in his last outing showed. However, Perez is inconsistent and has been prone to giving up big innings at times this season. Perez’s issues stemmed from struggling to consistently locate his pitches early in the count. From May 10-24, he gave up 19 earned runs and allowed 41 baserunners over 26- innings. Milwaukee’s lineup strikes out at an average rate, but it is patient and could make Perez pay if he falls behind in counts again. Gasser will not need to be spectacular for Milwaukee to win. The Brewers lineup should pressure Perez early in the game and then take aim at Miami’s bullpen once Perez falls behind in counts. Milwaukee just needs Gasser to keep them in the game through five innings and limit Miami’s opportunities to take advantage of an aggressive lineup that loves to run. Miami’s bullpen has experience facing Milwaukee’ aggressiveness, but the Brewers have the deeper pitching staff and the ability to win without seven strong innings from their starter. Milwaukee entered this series ranked second in team ERA. Jim's Play: 954. Brewers

The Atlanta Braves have every opportunity to pick up a victory over the Texas Rangers on Sunday. Atlanta heads into the series finale with a stronger offense and a starter who has been performing well recently. Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes will toe the rubber for Sunday’s game. Holmes will look to build upon some strong recent pitching and enters the matchup with a record of 5-4 and a 3.61 ERA. Holmes has allowed just two earned runs over his last 18- innings. He won’t need to pitch overpoweringly for seven innings against Texas. Holmes should be able to get away with missing spots here and there as long as he stays away from free passes. If Holmes continues to locate his pitches, Atlanta should have him for five or six solid innings. Atlanta also appears primed to give Holmes run support. Atlanta pounded out 21 runs over the first two games of this series, including six runs on Saturday during their 7-6 loss. That game was frustrating for Braves fans, but it also showed just how dangerous Atlanta’s lineup can be without Ronald Acuna Jr. The Braves have consistently put runners on base this series and have shown an ability to score from different parts of their lineup rather than relying on one bat. Texas starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi certainly has experience against Atlanta and has pitched well against the Braves over the years. But Eovaldi comes into this matchup with a 4.04 ERA while allowing exactly three earned runs in four of his last five starts. Good, but not great. If Atlanta’s lineup continues to hit like it has in this series, three or four runs may be enough for Holmes and the Braves offense. Atlanta also has the home field advantage in the rubber match and should be hungry to right the ship after Saturday’s collapse. The Braves are 56-40 on the season while Texas sits at 49-48. Atlanta also pitched like the more consistent club over the season’s duration. Atlanta’s formula for victory Sunday is simple: another strong start from Holmes, put pressure on Eovaldi and his Texas bullpen and do not fall into an early hole. Atlanta has the hot bats and Holmes has been impressive lately, so the Braves have a better path to victory in this one. Jim's Play: 968. Braves +1.09

I really like Winnipeg to cover Sunday’s spread against Ottawa.  Ottawa has yet to show it can play four quarters and won’t face a Winnipeg team it beat last season, while Winnipeg is 3-2 coming off a bye looking for its third win in row. Ottawa sits at 0-5.  The Winnipeg Blue Bombers will roll without Zach Collaros but Dru Brown is no amateur clipboard holder. Brown gets his shot against his old Ottawa team after being overlooked this past training camp so he knows all of Ottawa’s personnel and no doubt has plenty of motivation on his own. Winnipeg should also be able to scheme to protect Brown by relying on Brady Oliveira and the team’s effective run game rather than forcing their new quarterback to make tough downfield throws. They may have even more of an advantage when Ottawa has the ball. Jake Maier has seven touchdowns and seven interceptions through five games, including four picks in last week’s disastrous 40-17 loss to Edmonton. Winnipeg’s solid defense should be able to get home against Maier to force another turnover or two, especially if Ottawa can’t run the ball with any consistency. Greg Bell had just 133 yards on 36 carries in his first four games, failing to open up the passing attack. Ottawa can’t beat Winnipeg by airing it out. The Blue Bombers have the defense to force long, methodical drives while eliminating big plays and making opposing offenses convert on second down. Maier even said as much following last week’s game, pointing out Winnipeg has boasted one of the CFL’s best defenses for multiple years now. If Ottawa falls behind, Brown won’t have to throw as often and Winnipeg’s fierce pass rush and deep secondary will know it. Ottawa’s defense will be without several key starters as well. Middle linebacker Nyles Morgan will miss his second straight game with a knee injury. Morgan leads the CFL with 38 defensive tackles and will be tough to replace against Oliveira and the Winnipeg run game. Winnipeg’s offense should be able to methodically move the ball and wear down Ottawa’ already banged up front seven, which also loses defensive lineman Habakkuk Baldonado and starting corner Adrian Frye. Ottawa has also failed to take advantage of home field. The Redblacks are 0-3 at TD Place this season and have now lost six straight home games dating back into last year. Ottawa has been in games for long stretches, but self-inflicted wounds at the quarterback position, defensive injuries and failures on special teams have kept them from finishing. Winnipeg doesn’t need to explode for points to cover. Slow down the game with Oliveira, win the field position battle and take advantage of defensive takeaways. As long as they can avoid turnovers, the Blue Bombers should build up a comfortable lead against an Ottawa team that has struggled to protect the ball and close games all season. Jim's Play: Winnipeg

The Argentina vs Spain World Cup final has every opportunity to end Under 2.5 goals. Final matches almost always involve less risk than typical tournament games. Neither team will want to be the first to give up a big chance, so the first half could turn into a showcase of possession, spacing and defending counterattacks over committing numbers forward. Spain’s defensive prowess throughout the tournament is the most important factor supporting the Under bet. La Roja has conceded just one goal over seven matches, tallying six clean sheets on its way to the final. Spain dominated France defensively in the semifinal, winning 2-0 and demonstrating an ability to dictate play with possession while still protecting its back line. Argentina has Lionel Messi and some other weapons, but this is easily the most complete defense it will have faced in Spain. Spain’s ability to keep possession will also limit total-scoring chances. When Spain has the ball for extended periods, the opponent is forced to sit back and rarely gets opportunities to mount attacks. Spain has averaged 56% possession in knockout-stage minutes where it has led the game, proving that it can play for draws rather than trying to run up the score. Argentina has also shown that it can play a waiting game if needed. The reigning champs haven’t panicked during close matches and know how to strike at the right moment. They were behind England for most of the semifinal before scoring twice late to win 2-1, but Spain will likely force them to be more patient. Argentina will know that giving up midfield dominance can open up space for Lamine Yamal and the rest of Spain’ attack to hurt them on the counter. A low-scoring affair fits with how both teams will approach the matchup tactically. Expect Argentina to sit deep with a compact shape, defend the middle of the field and force Spain to play around the edge of the box. Spain will do everything in its power to limit Messi from receiving the ball in central positions where he is most dangerous. Such a game would have a lot of possession without many scoring chances. Even the stakes of the match point towards Under betting. Spain is playing for its first World Cup victory since 2010, while Argentina would become the first back-to-back winner since Brazil in 1962 if it triumphs on Sunday. Both teams know what’s on the line and should focus on defensive structure instead of making game-changing mistakes. Jim's Play: 225627. Argentina/Spain UNDER  (Soccer Total of the Year)