Jim Feist

Why should you bet the Rays? Tampa Bay’s recent form gives them a considerable advantage heading into Wednesday’s finale, as they already own the series lead. Tampa Bay has won the first two contests in Cleveland — Tuesday’s contest went 1-0 — and has now won six straight overall to improve to 18-11. Cleveland has lost four straight and fallen to 15-16. Momentum is huge in a series finale on the road. Tampa Bay also gets a fairly strong pitching matchup in Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 2.45 ERA) versus Gavin Williams (4-1, 3.28 ERA). Rasmussen has been Tampa Bay’s steady arm all season and fits a Rays win low-scoring, controlled game formula they’ve used to win the first two games. Another reason to side with Tampa Bay? Pitching matchups just haven’t mattered against Cleveland’s lineup this series. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff dominated Cleveland’s offense on Tuesday, as Nick Martinez and the bullpen combined on a 1-0 shutout that allowed just four total hits after Tampa Bay already won Monday’s opener 3-2. Through two games against Cleveland this series, the Rays have limited Guardians to 2 total runs. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff is dominating this matchup. This series has also formed a certain confidence around Tampa Bay. Jonathan Aranda is hitting RBI in three straight games. Ryan Vilade smashed the go-ahead hit Monday. And Tampa Bay’s bullpen has answered the call late in games to finish off Cleveland. Cleveland will roll former top prospect Travis Bazzana back into the lineup Wednesday after his suspension, but the Guardians will still need to actually figure out how to beat Tampa Bay’s pitching staff before they’re the safe bet. Here’s the handicap on Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is hotter, they’re already up 2-0 in the series, and they’re winning low-scoring games with exactly the type of pitching and timely hitting that should keep them rolling on the road. If Rasmussen can deliver another solid outing for Tampa Bay, they have a clear path to finishing off Cleveland on Wednesday. Jim's Play: 917. Rays

The Yankees pitching gets into this Wednesday having played some excellent baseball over their last few contests, and especially after beating Texas in Arlington on Tuesday. New York won 3-2 on Tuesday to improve to 20-10 while Texas fell to 14-16. The Yankees also won 10 of 11 coming into Wednesday, so their current form alone gives them the edge in the handicap. Momentum is another reason to like New York here. Tuesday’s game featured Cam Schlittler outpitching Jacob deGrom, more than enough power from Aaron Judge and Austin Wells, and a bullpen that answered the bell late. Whenever a team is winning close games against quality starters on the road, it tends to mean something about how well their pitching, defense, and late-game execution is working at the moment. For Wednesday in particular, Yankees rookie Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz making his MLB debut while Texas is expected to counter with Nathan Eovaldi. The rookie factor obviously brings some uncertainty to the table, but that doesn’t completely wash out New York’s value here because Texas is not getting a guy that profiles as a huge matchup advantage on the mound. Eovaldi sports a 5.79 ERA entering Wednesday and several previews have mentioned that he has already allowed 9 homers in just 32.2 innings, a tough profile to stomach against a Yankees lineup that is still finding ways to barrel the ball with Judge and receive timely contributions from the rest of the lineup. Finally, there’s just something to be said about the Yankees as a whole in this spot. New York is looking to go out and close a near-flawless road trip on Wednesday, and they also just created roster flexibility to continue giving opportunities to Jasson Domínguez while Giancarlo Stanton sits on the injured list. The lineup has seen some shuffling during this road trip, but New York has continued to win because the offense has still been solid and the pitching has shouldered its fair share of the workload. All signs point toward taking the Yankees here. They’re the hotter team, beat Texas just one day ago, and the Rangers are countering with a starter whose current statistics do not look good against New York’s power bats.  Jim's Play: 921. Yankees 

The Dodgers have a solid case to cover the run line Wednesday because the pitching matchup is strong enough to create separation if Los Angeles gets even a normal offensive game. The listed starters are Tyler Glasnow for Los Angeles and Sandy Alcantara for Miami, and while Alcantara is still dangerous, Glasnow has been sharper so far at 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, with 38 strikeouts entering the game.  A big reason to like the Dodgers on the run line is the bounce-back angle after Tuesday’s 2-1 loss. Los Angeles got a strong outing from Shohei Ohtani but almost no offensive support, scoring just once despite seven hits. That kind of loss often sets up well for a favorite in the series finale, especially one that still has the better overall lineup and now hands the ball to another frontline arm in Glasnow. Glasnow also gives Los Angeles the kind of swing-and-miss edge that can keep Miami from hanging around. Glasnow is near the top of the slate for April 29, and the available previews consistently place him among the strongest starters going Wednesday. If he controls the first six innings, the Dodgers only need a modest offensive rebound to get into multi-run-win territory. There is also a practical lineup angle here. Tuesday’s loss came with Ohtani not in the batting order, something Dodgers coverage explicitly noted before Wednesday’s game. If Los Angeles gets closer to a normal offensive setup in the finale, that alone improves the chance of stretching a close lead into a two-run margin or better. So the handicap is pretty simple: this is Miami, not the old “Florida Marlins,” and the case for Los Angeles is better starter, better overall team, and a natural bounce-back spot after wasting a quality outing Tuesday. If Glasnow pitches to form and the Dodgers’ bats wake up even a little, Los Angeles has a very reasonable path to winning by 2 runs or more on Wednesday. Jim's Play: 902. Dodgers -1.5 Runs