Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Dallas Mavericks +4.5
The Dallas Mavericks have been a big money maker at home all season. They are 20-9 SU & 20-9 ATS at home this year. And now they’re once again catching points at home to the Denver Nuggets tonight.
The Nuggets are just 14-14 SU & 10-18 ATS on the highway this season. While they have been tremendous at home, they have been just a .500 team on the road. And I think they are coming out of the break getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. Dallas beat Denver 118-107 as 6.5-point dogs, 122-105 as 2-point favorites and 112-92 as 2.5-point dogs in its lat three home meetings with the Nuggets. The Mavericks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Nuggets.
Denver is 1-10 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins over the last two seasons. Dallas is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Mavericks are 21-5 ATS int heir last 26 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Mavericks Friday.
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1* Free NBA Pick on Jazz/Thunder UNDER 226
I just think the total here has been set way too high for this division showdown between the Jazz and Thunder. We saw 5 of the 6 games played on Thursday out of the break go UNDER the total and all 5 UNDERs cashed by more than 10 points. I believe we will see a very similar outcome here.
The first meeting between these two teams this season saw a combined score of 235, but that was back when Utah wasn't playing their best and the Jazz were on the backend of a back-to-back set on the road. They rematched almost two weeks later and combined for a mere 213 points.
I think that's where we are going to see this one finish up around. Note that both of these teams trend towards the UNDER when playing a quality opponent. UNDER is 21-10 in Utah's last 31 vs a team with a winning record and it's 15-7 in OKC's last 22 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER!
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10* FREE NBA PICK (Bulls +8)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago getting 8-points on the road against the Magic. I could be completely wrong here, but I'm just not buying the Magic being as good as they looked in their 5-game winning streak going into the All-Star break. A stretch in which they outscored their opponents by 22.8 ppg. They only legit win during that run was a road victory at Milwaukee and the Bucks were without Antetokounmpo (rest).
It's now been a full 7 days since Orlando last played and a long break like that is the last thing you want when you are on a roll. Well-rested has certainly not been a good thing for the Magic at home, as they are a mere 3-12 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.
No denying the Bulls are a bottom tier team, but I think this team has some really nice pieces with Markkanen, LaVine and now Otto Porter Jr. It's really not asking a lot for them to keep this competitive and it's not out of the question they win the game. Orlando is just 14-15 at home this season and the Bulls have won 3 of their last 4 trips to the Amway Center. Chicago is also 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road and 11-5 ATS last 16 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Give me the Bulls +8!
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1* Free Play on Knicks +6 -110