Free NBA Picks

Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Heat/Grizzlies UNDER 196.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are fun to watch because they are old school when the NBA is changing around them. Their style clearly works as they are 16-11 this season, and Mike Conley and Marc Gasol have stayed healthy.  They play better defense than anyone and work the shot clock, shortening games. 

The Grizzlies held the Blazers to just 83 points last time out and lead the league in scoring defense.  They are holding opponents to less than 100 points per game at home.  But their offense has struggled of late, scoring fewer than 100 points in five of their last six games overall coming in.  As a result, the UNDER is 5-1 in their last six games overall. 

The Heat are also another team that plays defense, at least when Hassan Whiteside is healthy.  And he makes his return to the lineup tonight.  He is one of the best interior defenders in the NBA, and he’s back in time to match up with Gasol.  Also hurting Miami’s offense is that starting PG Goran Dragic is out with a knee injury.  The Heat will struggle to find good shots against this Memphis defense without Dragic running the show. 

The UNDER is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Memphis.  The UNDER is 21-7 in Heat’s last 28 Friday games. The UNDER is 15-5 in Grizzlies last 20 Friday home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Heat last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Oklahoma City Thunder -1 

The Denver Nuggets are missing three starters right now in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton.  It’s no surprise they have lost two of their last three coming in to the Hornets and Hawks, and they were fortunate to beat the Grizzlies as they trailed in the final minutes before a big finish to the game.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Thunder, who are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall.  And one of those losses came to the Nuggets at home on November 24th, so they’ll be revenge-minded here tonight.  Denver is 1-9 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season.  The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Give me the Thunder.

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Dave’s Friday Free Play: 

1* on Boston Celtics -11.5 

The Key: The Celtics are back.  After a slow start to the season, the Celtics have gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall, winning 5 times by 13 points or more.  And they’re getting healthier since they’ve had some much rest of late.  The Celtics are only playing their 5th game in 13 days here tonight.  And they’re hosting the Atlanta Hawks, who are 6-21 on the season and arguably the worst team in the Eastern Conference.  The Hawks are just 2-12 on the road this season and losing by 11.4 PPG.  That’s basically the same average loss as this 11.5-point spread, and the Celtics are one of the best teams in the East.  They keep rolling tonight.  Take Boston.

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1* Free NBA Pick on Philadelphia Sixers -4

This is just too good a price to pass up on the 76ers at home. Philadelphia suffered a rare home loss in their last game, as they were upset 127-124 by Brooklyn. It was more of the effort defensively, as they shot 54.9% from the field, but allowed the Nets to shoot 51.4%. Considering they are holding teams to 43.4% from the field at home on the season, I think we see the defense return to form, especially off a loss. 

As for the Pacers, I think Indiana is way overvalued right now. The Pacers are fresh off a 113-97 blowout win at home over the Bucks as a 2-point dog. They have now won 5 straight overall and covered 4 in a row. 

Indiana is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog. It's also worth noting that these to played on Nov. 7 at Indiana, which the 76ers won 100-94. Pacers are a mere 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take Philadelphia! 

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10* FREE NBA PICK (Knicks +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New York as a double-digit dog against the Hornets on Friday night. I just think this is way too many points given the spot. These two teams just played at New York on Sunday, which Charlotte won 119-107 and were in complete control most of the way (led by 20 going into the 4th). I think with a home game looming against LeBron James and the Lakers tomorrow night is going to make it really tough for the Hornets to get up for this game. As for the Knicks, I know they played poorly last time out at Cleveland, but I think it's harder for a young team to get up for playing another bad team on the road, especially a Cavs team that has no superstars. I think we get a big effort here from New York and that should be enough to keep thes within the inflated number. Give me the Knicks +10.5! 

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The Pacers have been on an extended 'under' streak. However, I expect it to come to an end this evening. The 76ers have scored 124, 116 and 117 their past three games. In fact, they've hit triple-digits in 18 straight games. Even with their games falling below the total, the Pacers have still managed a minimum of 107 points in each of their past four, averaging 110. The 76ers lost for the 10th time last game. After the first nine of those losses, the next game finished above the total seven times, a 78% mark. Consider the Over. 

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