Free NBA Picks

1* Free Play on Heat/Mavs under217 -110

The Mavericks (17-7) are edging Houston in the Southwest, and the Heat (18-7) are tops the Southeast. Tonight, we’ll see these two division leaders face off in Dallas. The over/under is set at 217 points.

After a four-game home stand, Miami will be on the road for the first time since they managed only 93 points in Boston. The Heat have been good defensively, holding opponents to 105 points or fewer in two of their last four. Watch for some heavy legs from Miami after taking a three-point loss against the Lakers yesterday.

On average, the Heat are scoring 111.9 points while allowing 106.4 points per game.

Miami has been missing the play of Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow. Dragic has contributed 15.9 points per game while Winslow has added 12.4 points a game. Both players remain out.

Often overlooked in a Dallas team that features an MVP candidate is just how good they’ve been on the defensive end. The Mavericks haven’t allowed more than 114 points in their last eight games, and they allowed 100 points or fewer in three of them.

On average, the Mavericks are scoring 118.1 points while allowing 108.4 points per game.

Luke Doncic is putting up a monster year with 30.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game, but no other Dallas player is scoring more than 16.6 points a game.

The NBA Comp Play is on the Over in the Miami at Dallas game at 8:30 eastern. This game fits a solid long term system cashing 91% since 1995. Play the Over for rested home favorite with a 200 or higher total if they scored 120 or more as and covered as a road favorite of 5 or more and allowed 110 or more if the opponent which is Miami in this case was a home dog last out. The Heat will go up tempo with Dallas in this game and the Mavs have flown over in 16 of 23 overall including 7 of 9 as a favorite and 12 of 16 with 1 day of rest. The Heat are 5 of 7 over vs inning teams and played hard last night in a loss to the Lakers. Play this one Over the total. . For the NBA Free play. Go with the Over in the Miami at Dallas game. RV- GC Sports

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Free Pick on Clippers

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Dallas Mavericks -7.5 

The Miami Heat are in a really bad spot tonight.  They’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 110-113 home loss to the Lakers last night.  It’s the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, and I just don’t think the Heat will have enough mentally or physically to be able to overcome this spot. 

Not to mention, the Heat are still without two of their top players in Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic.  They are already short-handed, making this situation even more difficult for them.  The Dallas Mavericks are fully healthy and playing some of the best basketball in the NBA right now. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with all 11 victories coming by 7 points or more during this stretch.  They are rested and ready to go as this will be just the 2nd game in the last 6 days for the Mavericks. 

Dallas is 7-0 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts this season.  The Heat are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on zero rest.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Phoenix Suns -1.5 

The Phoenix Suns have had the last two days off and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off a bad loss to Memphis.  They are cheap at home tonight as 1.5-point favorites against the San Antonio Spurs.  This is a Spurs team that has been getting too much respect from the books all season.  They are 9-15 SU & 5-18-1 ATS in their 24 games this year.  They just lost outright as 12-point home favorites to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS off a combined score of 225 points or more this season.  San Antonio is 1-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Give me the Suns.

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Dave’s Saturday Free Play: 

1* on Washington Wizards +1.5 

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies just blew a 4th quarter lead to the Bucks last night and lost 114-127 and failed to cover as 12.5-point dogs.  It was a disheartening loss for them against the best team in the East.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and get ready to face the Washington Wizards, who come in on 3 days rest.  It’s an awful situation for the Grizzlies.  The Wizards are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Grizzlies are 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games off a double-digit home loss.  Memphis is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games on 0 days rest.  Take Washington.

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