get all of my plays for the next two weeks for $148
September has always been one of my stronger months. Here are some long term trends for September.
166-113 Last 279 NFL plays +153%
278-226 Last 504 NCAAF Picks +105%
Anyone can get hot for a weekend, but true sports investing requires a verified, long-term edge. The record includes seven #1 overall finishes across multiple sports:
#1 in NFL (2020): 61-38 (61.6%) | +$2,039
#1 in College Football (2011 & 2009): Dominating Saturdays with win rates up to 62.6% and over $5,500 in combined profit.
#1 in Overall Football (2011): 144-104 (58.1%) | +$3,053
#1 in MLB (2009): 119-83 (58.9%) | +$2,785
#1 in All Sports (2011 & 2009): Over 760 total wins and $7,700+ in combined profit across the entire board.
| Matchup | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama vs LSU | OVER 53 -110 | Premium | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | |
| Alabama at LSU — OVER 53 2.2% play Both SEC heavyweights enter off a bye week with two full weeks for Lane Kiffin and Kalen DeBoer to script openers and get their skill playmakers healthy under warm 80°F skies in Baton Rouge. Pairing two top-12 scoring offenses with an elite pace of play gives us a clear path past a modest 52.5 total.Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesTop-12 Scoring Offenses & Fast Tempo: LSU ranks #6 nationally in scoring offense (40.0 PPG), #7 in total offense, and #3 in the country in offensive pace at 79.5 plays per game. In five home games at Tiger Stadium this season, LSU has averaged 45.0 PPG. Across the sideline, Alabama ranks #12 nationally in scoring offense (38.0 PPG) and has topped 45 points in four of its eight games—including 56 at Mississippi State, 49 vs. South Carolina, 50 vs. Florida State, and 45 at Kentucky.Quarterback Efficiency & Healthy Playmakers: LSU QB Sam Leavitt is completing 70% of his passes with a 17-8 TD-to-INT ratio. While LSU’s defense has feasted on struggling offenses at home, the two competent SEC attacks they faced on the road turned into high-scoring affairs—falling 32-24 at Ole Miss (56 points) and 35-34 at Kentucky (69 points). Meanwhile, Alabama QB Keelon Russell is completing 67% of his passes with a 15-5 TD-to-INT ratio and gets a healthier offensive line and receiving corps coming out of the bye.Havoc, Turnovers & Special Teams Short Fields: Alabama has forced 19 turnovers this season (+7 turnover margin), while LSU’s aggressive defensive front faces an Alabama pass protection unit that has allowed sack and havoc opportunities—creating high volatility for short fields and quick strikes. Additionally, LSU ranks #127 nationally in special teams against Alabama’s #49 unit, further boosting the likelihood of hidden yardage and short-field touchdowns. | ||||||
| Texas A&M vs South Carolina | Texas A&M +7 -120 | Top Premium | 9-17 | Loss | -120 | |
| Texas A&M +7 4.4% NCAAF PODOur model projects South Carolina -1.9, giving us more than five points of value on the rested Aggies at +7. While the market is pricing South Carolina at the peak of its three-game winning streak, the Gamecocks have thrived strictly in the underdog role and have repeatedly stumbled when forced to play with expectations as a home favorite. With Texas A&M coming off a bye week to reset and holding a decisive schematic advantage on defense, the wrong team is laying a full touchdown.Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesBye-Week Reset & Road Momentum: Texas A&M enters with 14 days to prepare, a spot where head coach Mike Elko is 7-2 SU. In their final game before the break, the Aggies put together their best road performance of the season at #5 Alabama—leading the Crimson Tide outright late in the third quarter before falling 31-20 to easily cover the +13 spread.Series Dominance & Second-Half Blueprint: Texas A&M leads the all-time series 10-2. In last year’s meeting, the Aggies erased a 30-3 halftime deficit by scoring touchdowns on four consecutive second-half possessions and outgaining South Carolina 371-76 after intermission to win 31-30.South Carolina’s Home Favorite Woes & Backfield Injury: South Carolina has struggled to handle prosperity at Williams-Brice Stadium this season, losing outright as a home favorite to both Mississippi State (41-34 as a 3-point favorite) and Kentucky (35-34 as a 2-point favorite), while barely surviving Tennessee 27-24 in a game where the Volunteers had three touchdowns wiped off the board by penalties. Furthermore, South Carolina lost leading rusher Matt Fuller to a first-quarter injury last week at Oklahoma (finishing with just 4 carries for 17 yards), leaving the Gamecocks thin in the backfield.Defensive Superiority vs. Vulnerable Secondary: Texas A&M’s defense holds opponents 29.0 YPG below their season average (#23 in FBS) and ranks #26 nationally in scoring defense (19.0 PPG) and #29 in total defense. On the other side, South Carolina’s defense ranks #73 in scoring defense (25.0 PPG) and #90/#102 in pass defense, giving QB Marcel Reed and the rested Aggies passing attack clean looks downfield. | ||||||
| Air Force vs Army | UNDER 44 -110 | Premium | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | |
| Army/ Air Force U44 2.2% play | ||||||
| Iowa vs Northwestern | Iowa -145 | Top Premium | 24-10 | Win | 100 | |
| Iowa -145 3.5% play Iowa at Northwestern — IOWA MONEYLINE | Saturday, Nov 7, 7:30 PM EST (FOX)With this spread sitting inside a field goal and the total set at a low 45.5 points, backing Iowa on the Moneyline gives us maximum value in a matchup where the Hawkeyes hold the superior defense, special teams, recent form, and series pedigree. Iowa has won four consecutive meetings against Northwestern—including its last two trips to Evanston—and routed the Wildcats 40-14 in their last meeting in 2024 while holding Northwestern to just 163 total yards (24 carries for 43 rushing yards at 1.8 YPC).Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesIowa’s Elite Defense & Recent Form (+4.2 L4W Grade Edge): Iowa enters with a +4.2 Last 4 Weeks grade edge on our sheet (and +5.2 over the last month) after dismantling a 5-2 Wisconsin team 30-0 last Saturday. Even in Iowa’s lone defeat over the last five weeks—a 13-10 road loss at Minnesota—the Hawkeyes outgained the Gophers 288-209. On the season, Iowa ranks #11 nationally in scoring defense (13.0 PPG), #15 in total defense, and #3 in pass defense, holding opponents 73.0 YPG below their season average (#26 in FBS).Resurgent Hawkeye Passing Attack: Iowa’s offense (averaging 28.0 PPG with a +108.1 net YPG margin) is no longer one-dimensional. Quarterbacks Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski have combined to complete 62% of their passes with a 12-5 TD-to-INT ratio, going 20-of-24 for 222 yards in last week’s 30-0 rout of Wisconsin and hanging 41 points in a 41-24 victory over Washington. They now attack a Northwestern defense that just collapsed in the second half against Oregon—surrendering 21 points over the final two quarters while allowing 441 total yards (7.5 YPP) and 336 passing yards (22-of-31).Massive Special Teams & Situational Splits: In a low-possession Big Ten battle, hidden yardage is critical, and Iowa holds a decisive special teams advantage—ranking #20/#26 nationally compared to Northwestern at #92/#112. Situationally, Iowa is 11-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2021 (and 18-9-1 ATS as a road favorite over the last 11 years), whereas Northwestern is a dismal 8-16-1 ATS as a home favorite. Furthermore, the underdog is 6-3 ATS with four outright upsets in the last nine meetings between these two programs. | ||||||
| Louisiana Tech vs Troy | Troy +6½ -103 | Premium | 41-17 | Loss | -103 | |
| Lousiana Tech -6.5 2.2% playOur model projects Louisiana Tech -10.9, giving us a 5.4-point edge over the current -5.5 market spread and triggering a Dominant Trench flag in favor of the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech has been the most consistent cover team in the conference during its debut Sun Belt campaign, posting a 7-1 ATS record (6-2 SU, 4-0 Sun Belt) with its only two losses coming on the road against Power 4 opponents LSU and Baylor—both of which the Bulldogs covered. Meanwhile, Troy is in a prime letdown spot after an fluke overtime upset at James Madison that masked severe offensive issues.Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesTroy’s Misleading Upset & Quarterback Injury: Last week’s 24-21 overtime win at James Madison as a 19-point underdog was one of the most misleading box scores of the season. JMU jumped out to a 14-0 lead after two possessions and led 21-7 before committing five turnovers—including a 37-yard pick-six on the second play of the third quarter—while outgaining Troy 408-349. With starting QB Goose Crowder sidelined by injury, backup Tucker Kilcrease completed just 15-of-31 passes (48.4%) for 179 yards. Over its last three games combined, Troy’s passing attack has totaled just 367 yards, and on the season the Trojans rank #103 nationally in scoring offense (23.0 PPG), #115 in points per play (0.33), #122 in passing offense (177.0 YPG), and #128 in yards per attempt (6.2).Trench Havoc vs. Backup Quarterback: Troy’s offensive line allows an 8% sack rate (#98 nationally) and now has to protect a backup quarterback against a Louisiana Tech defense that ranks #6 nationally in negative play rate (13%), #20 in sacks (22), and has forced 16 takeaways (+8 turnover margin). Overall, Louisiana Tech holds opponents 37.0 YPG below their season average (#55 in FBS) while ranking #35 in yards per play allowed (5.1), #36 in yards per carry allowed (3.6), and #39 in scoring defense (20.9 PPG). The Bulldogs posted back-to-back shutouts against ULM (24-0) and Old Dominion (26-0) before blanking South Alabama in the second half (allowing 0 points and 149 yards over the final two quarters) of last week’s 35-20 road win.Blake Baker vs. Troy’s Vulnerable Secondary: In Sun Belt play, Louisiana Tech is outgaining league opponents by +103.0 YPG, whereas Troy is at -9.0 YPG. Bulldogs QB Blake Baker is completing 71% of his passes with an elite 13-1 TD-to-INT ratio, piloting a passing attack that ranks #15 nationally in team QB rating (164) and #28 in yards per attempt (8.3). He faces a Troy pass defense ranked #84 in pass efficiency defense (allowing 61% completions and a 15-7 TD-INT ratio). At home, Troy is just 1-3 ATS this season, including a 21-14 outright loss as a 13.5-point favorite to 1-7 ULM in its last home appearance where the Trojans mustered just 200 total yards (3.1 YPP). | ||||||
| Texas vs Missouri | Missouri +3 -115 | Premium | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | |
| Missouri +3 2.2% play Public bettors are lining up to lay the short price with the Texas brand—generating 67% of spread tickets and 76% of the spread handle—while 81% of total tickets are backing the Over. Despite that lopsided action, oddsmakers have steamed the total down from 45 to 42.5 and are handing out the crucial hook at +3.5 on Missouri. Getting more than a field goal with a physical home underdog in a low-possession grinder—against a Texas roster decimated by cluster injuries and caught in a brutal scheduling spot—is one of the premier values on the Saturday board.Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesTrench Dominance & Texas’s Misleading Box Score: Last week’s 31-3 victory over a depleted Mississippi State squad masked severe offensive issues for Texas, as the Longhorns managed just 280 total yards, rushed 32 times for only 60 net yards (1.9 YPC), recorded only 6 first downs in the first half, needed a 61-yard fumble-return touchdown by a defensive tackle to build their halftime lead, and watched QB Arch Manning get sacked 6 times. In our model, Texas’s offense ranks #104 nationally in PPA per play (0.06), #119 in Line Yards (2.71), #78 in Success Rate (41.6%), and #84 in Pass Success (41.3%). That unit now walks into a buzzsaw against Missouri DC Corey Batoon’s front seven, which ranks #13 nationally in Line Yards allowed (2.53), #17 in Success Rate allowed (35.7%), #21 in Pass Success allowed (35.9%), and #22 in PPA per play allowed (0.01).Cluster Injuries Crippling Both Sides of the Ball for Texas: Season-long power ratings do not account for the wave of injuries hitting Texas’s top playmakers. Offensively, Texas has lost All-American left tackle Trevor Goosby for the season and lead tailback Hollywood Smothers, while star WR Cam Coleman exited in the second quarter last week in street clothes (doubtful) and WR Ryan Wingo is questionable. Defensively, Texas’s 3-High shell relies on perimeter coverage, but the Longhorns lost starting cornerbacks Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips to multi-week injuries while star edge rusher Colin Simmons has missed the last two games.Ball Security, Special Teams & Missouri’s Backfield Punch: In a game with a 42.5 total, hidden yardage and turnover margin are decisive. Missouri ranks #9 nationally in offensive Turnover Rate (0.88 per 100 plays), led by QB Austin Simmons (63% completions, 16-2 TD-INT ratio) and RB Jamal Roberts (1,005 rushing yards, 5.3 YPC), with transfer RB Ahmad Hardy also returning to the rotation last week. Conversely, Texas’s offense ranks #106 nationally in Turnover Rate (2.26 per 100 plays) against Missouri’s #26 takeaway defense. Missouri also holds a massive special teams field-position advantage, ranking #7 offensively (33.10 avg FP) and #16 defensively (25.80) compared to Texas at #77 and #89.Home Underdog Pedigree vs. Texas’s Road Woes & Lookahead: Today is November 7, yet this is only Texas’s second true road game of the entire season (having barely survived 20-17 at Tennessee in Week 4 as a 5.5-point favorite). Since joining the SEC in 2024, Texas is just 1-7 ATS in conference road games, and the Longhorns have a massive road trip to Death Valley to face LSU on deck next week. Meanwhile, Eli Drinkwitz is 9-4-1 ATS as a home underdog at Missouri (12-6-1 ATS overall), and the Tigers have already blown out Florida 45-17 (the same Florida team that beat Texas) and Texas A&M 27-6 at Faurot Field this season. | ||||||
| BYU vs Utah | UNDER 49½ -110 | Premium | 20-28 | Win | 100 | |
| BYU/Utah U49.5 1.1% free playPublic action (71% of tickets) has steamed this total back up from 47.5 to 49.5, giving us a prime opportunity to buy the Under above the key number of 49 in the 104th edition of the Holy War. Intensity and physicality define this rivalry, where 21 of the last 25 meetings have been decided by single digits and the Under is 9-4 since 2009—including a 24-21 final last season and a 22-21 result in Salt Lake City in 2024. With both teams knowing each other inside and out, points will be at a premium from the opening kick.Key Analytical & Matchup AnglesDominant Stop Units: Utah (#11 scoring defense at 16.0 PPG) and BYU (#18 at 19.0 PPG) field two of the stingiest defenses in the country, holding opponents 62 YPG and 105 YPG below their season averages, respectively.Explosiveness Caps & Pass Lockdown: Utah (#2) and BYU (#8) boast elite pass defenses, and both units rank inside the top 30 nationally in yards per carry allowed and top 15 in preventing explosive plays.BYU’s Ground-Heavy Script & Limited LJ Martin: Star tailback LJ Martin is set to dress and attempt to play after missing the last four games, but he is not 100% and is expected to be on a limited workload. Working a banged-up Martin back into the rotation alongside QB Bear Bachmeier encourages BYU to lean on a conservative, clock-chewing ground attack rather than testing Utah's secondary, while lacking the full-strength burst to generate chunk plays against Utah's front seven.Slow Tempo & 10:00 AM Local Kickoff: Both run-heavy offenses operate at a deliberate pace (ranking 94th and 128th nationally in tempo) and face an early 10:00 AM MST body-clock start in Salt Lake City, ensuring a fast-moving clock throughout. | ||||||
| Tulsa vs Tulane | Tulane +3 -110 | Premium | 60-10 | Loss | -110 | |
| Tulane +3 2.2% play Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesFreshman QB Trace Johnson’s Offensive Upgrade: Tulane’s season-long offensive averages (22.5 PPG) are dragged down by early-season quarterback play against a top-75 schedule that included road trips to Duke and Kansas State. Turning the offense over to freshman QB Trace Johnson sparked the unit last week, as Johnson went 28-of-36 (77.8%) for 284 yards and led a 467-yard performance (6.7 YPP) capped by a 61-yard game-tying touchdown drive in the final seconds of regulation.Tulsa’s AAC Run Defense Bleed: Although Tulsa’s full-season defensive numbers look respectable on paper, they have been gashed in American Conference play—surrendering 444.0 total YPG and 294.0 rushing YPG against league opponents. Overall, Tulsa ranks #130 nationally in rushing defense (202.0 YPG) and #123 in negative play rate (6%), setting up a prime bounce-back spot for a Tulane ground attack that averages 5.2 YPC at home and posted 183 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) last week.Late-Game Execution & Road Favorite Struggles: Tulsa has failed to cover in five of its last six games as a road favorite and has repeatedly struggled to close out tight contests, blowing a 7-point fourth-quarter lead in a 38-35 home loss to Army prior to the bye and falling 45-44 in overtime to North Texas | ||||||
| Duke vs NC State | UNDER 51½ -110 | Premium | 41-3 | Win | 100 | |
| Duke/NC State Over 51.5 2.2% Despite 84% of early tickets and 79% of the public cash backing the Under, oddsmakers have moved this total up from an opener of 49.5 to 50.5 and 51.5 across the board. Our model projects 58.2 total points (flagging a 3-unit purple play on Over 51.5 with a +6.7-point edge), aligning with Phil Steele’s computer projection of 53 points (Duke 30, NC State 23) in a rivalry that produced 78 points (a 45-33 Duke win with 953 combined yards) last season.Key Analytical & Schematic AnglesDuke’s Explosive Balance vs. NC State’s #109 Pass Defense: Duke ranks #15 nationally in scoring offense (32.0 PPG) and is +92 YPG in ACC play. QB Walker Eget is completing 62% of his passes (9-3 TD-INT ratio) alongside dynamic RB Nate Sheppard, who topped 150 total yards in each of his first six games and ripped off a 54-yard TD run in last week’s 47-2 rout of Boston College. They face an NC State defense that is -81 YPG in conference play, allows 12 YPG above opponents’ season averages (#94 in FBS), and ranks #109 nationally in pass defense and #86 in scoring defense (26.0 PPG).NC State’s Interim Coaching Bounce & CJ Bailey: Since firing Dave Doeren and handing the reins to an interim head coach, NC State’s offense woke up in the second half last week against Cal—stringing together consecutive touchdown drives of 73, 75, and 90 yards on their first three second-half possessions to win 31-10. QB CJ Bailey is completing 64% of his passes with a 13-4 TD-INT ratio and faces a Duke defense that has played three tight road games decided by 4 points or fewer (allowing 28 points at Georgia Tech and 28 at Illinois).Ideal Scoring Conditions & Reverse Line Movement: With clear skies, 63°F temperatures, and light 6 mph winds in Raleigh, both quarterbacks have ideal conditions to replicate last year’s track meet, where NC State racked up 535 yards (364 passing) and Duke posted 418 yards (269 passing). | ||||||
| Iowa vs Northwestern | OVER 42½ -110 | Premium | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | |
| Oddsmakers are still pricing this matchup like a vintage Big Ten West rock fight in the low-to-mid 40s, completely ignoring the offensive evolution on both sidelines this season. Our quantitative model projects 55.3 combined points, giving us more than 10 full points of mathematical value above the opening total and clearing the key total numbers of 44, 45, 48, and 51. Even after applying our late-season conference strength-of-schedule adjustments, our baseline sits over 51 points.Aidan Chiles & Northwestern’s 39.2 PPG Home Scoring FloorUnder transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles, Northwestern (6-2) is averaging 33.6 points per game and has scored at least 23 points in all eight games this season—including 39.2 points per game across five home contests in Evanston (34, 41, 34, 45, and 42). Even in Saturday's 34-26 road loss at Autzen Stadium against Oregon, Northwestern racked up 456 total yards (6.2 yards per play) and 22 first downs on 74 snaps with zero turnovers, as Chiles threw for 281 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 93 yards and another score. Furthermore, the Wildcats just welcomed tight end Luke Dehnicke (3 catches, 43 yards at Oregon) back from injury to pair with explosive boundary receiver Griffin Wilde (5 catches, 146 yards, 64-yard TD at Oregon) and slot target Drew Wagner.Hank Brown’s Efficiency vs. Northwestern’s Depleted DefenseOn the other side, Iowa (6-2) has unlocked a legitimate vertical passing game behind quarterback Hank Brown, who just carved up No. 25 Wisconsin in a 30-0 rout with 222 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions (188.5 QBR), and a 5-for-5 red-zone clip. With leading rusher Kamari Moulton sidelined for the season, Iowa has leaned even more efficiently on Brown's arm (1,190 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs on the season). He now attacks a Northwestern defense that is missing multiple starters in the secondary and defensive line (safety Robert Fitzgerald, cornerback Josh Fussell, and defensive lineman Brendan Flakes) and just surrendered 34 points, 441 total yards (7.5 yards per play), 336 passing yards, and a 5-for-5 red-zone performance to Oregon. When Iowa faced a similar mobile quarterback and upbeat tempo on the road at Washington earlier this season, the Hawkeyes erupted for a 41-24 victory (65 combined points).Enclosed Stadium Environment & Clean Turnover ProfilesPlaying inside the enclosed bowl design at the new Ryan Field significantly reduces the swirling Lake Michigan crosswinds that historically suppressed passing totals at old Ryan Field and Wrigley Field. With both quarterbacks protecting the football at an elite level (combining for a 21-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) and both offenses finishing drives in the red zone, expect a competitive 28-24 or 31-21 divisional battle that sails past this depressed total. | ||||||
| Miami-FL vs Notre Dame | OVER 55½ -110 | Premium | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | |
| Notre Dame/ MIami Over 55.5 3.3% play | ||||||
