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Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Dallas Mavericks +12.5
The Dallas Mavericks get a shot at quick early season revenge after a 122-106 loss to the Spurs on October 24th in their first meeting this season. But both Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving missed that game, and they still only trailed by 3 entering the 4th quarter.
The Spurs have really benefited from a soft schedule during their current 5-game winning streak that followed up losses to the Thunder and Rockets to open the season. They beat the Mavs without their two best players, perhaps the worst team in the NBA in the Kings, another NBA bottom feeder in the Jazz (twice), and the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards. They needed OT to beat the Jazz in the first meeting, and they failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites against the Timberwolves.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on Dallas after handing the Kings their first victory of the season last time out. They shot just 41% from the floor and 21.2% from 3-point range while the Kings shot 44.2% from 3. But the Mavericks showed what they were capable of when stepping up in class in their previous three games with a trio of upset wins over the Heat, Thunder and Rockets.
It was a clear letdown and sandwich spot against the Kings and they simply did not show up. That game was sandwiched in between the wins over the Thunder and Rockets, and with the Spurs on deck. We'll get Dallas' best effort tonight, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated number. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
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Wednesday's Free NBA Pick
PLAY ON: Hornets -3.5
1* Free Pick on Jaguars/Ravens: under 40
The Ravens' quarterback room is down to an undrafted rookie, and that's where this total starts.
Lamar Jackson is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and headed for injured reserve. Tyler Huntley is out as well. That leaves Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie out of UConn, making his first career NFL start on a short week. He came out of Sunday's loss to the Bills with an ankle injury of his own, practicing in a heavy brace.
Fagnano's emergency relief work against Buffalo told the story: 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception. No Ravens player topped 25 receiving yards, and Zay Flowers was held without a catch for the first time in his career. Expect Baltimore to lean on Derrick Henry, run the clock and protect the kid.
The other side of the ball helps too. Jacksonville is allowing just 15.9 points per game through 7 contests, and the defense just hung a shutout through three quarters on the Colts in a 42-7 win. Rayuan Lane took a pick-six 92 yards in that one.
Baltimore has scored 13, 10 and 10 in three of its last 5 games, averaging 17.4 over that stretch. And the Jaguars needed just 14 Trevor Lawrence pass attempts last week. When this team gets a lead, it sits on it.
Even the kicking game is patched together. Asked whether Jake Moody kicks Thursday with Tyler Loop headed to IR, Jesse Minter said "At this point, yes."
A rookie quarterback, a run-heavy script on both sides and a stingy Jacksonville defense on a short week. Give me the Under 40 (-110) in Jaguars at Ravens.
Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Cavs/Thunder UNDER 226.5
The Key: The Cavs and Thunder just played on Monday and now play again on Wednesday. That familiarity will lead to a lower scoring matchup in the rematch. The Thunder won 117-112 in Cleveland and now host the Cavs in OKC. The Thunder should have Alex Caruso back for this game which will make them even better defensively. The Cavs are without key players to them offensively in Watson and Tyson. They don't have much scoring talent off the bench without these guys. This looks like it will be a defensive grinder. Take the UNDER.
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1* FREE INFO PLAY Ravens +10 -110
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Central Michigan/Eastern Michigan OVER 44.5
This game will be played in the dome at Ford Field in Detroit. I don't think it is being factored into this total enough that this game will be played in shootout conditions. Central Michigan has had to go to a more pass-happy offense without starting QB Angel Flores, who is a better runner than he is a thrower. Backup Jadyn Glasser is the better passer. There's a good chance Eastern Michigan gets back starting QB Noah Kim this week after getting a mini bye week. Either way, both offenses should have their way with these two very poor defenses. Central Michigan gives up 25.9 points per game, 359 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play this season. Eastern Michigan gives up 25.7 points per game, 376.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. CMU and its opponents have gone for at least 45 combined points in four of its last five games. EMU and its opponents have gone for at least 44 combined points in seven of its nine games this season. Give me the OVER.
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2X PERFECT MAC CONF GAME OF THE YEAR headlines in CFB. We also have TOP Plays in NBA and College Hoops. NHL Comp play below
The NHL Comp play for Wednesday is on the Over 6 goals in the San Jose at LA. Kings game at 10:05 eastern. In the series these two have flown over the total in 7 straight with all but one getting 7+ goals. The system in this game is to play the over for road dogs off back to back home losses like the Sharks that scored 1 or less goals in back to backs games vs an opponent off a home Loss that scored 2 or less goals and has road loss revenge. This system has cashed 80% to the over long term. Look for this game to play over tonight. GL Rob V-
1* on Wisc-Milwaukee +16½
Jazz vs Pelicans NBA Free Pick
The Angle(s): The Utah Jazz catch a New Orleans Pelicans team that has struggled to get stops all season. New Orleans was giving up 128 points per game through its first few contests and ranks last in the league in fourth-quarter defense, which leaves the door wide open for a backdoor cover. Utah plays fast and has the young shot-makers to keep pace in a fast-paced game.
The Bet: Jazz ATS (3%).
Free Pick on Lakers -11½ -110
