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MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners
New York Mets
in 2h

The pitching matchup and situation are ripe for a Mets victory. New York is the envy of many teams with its bevy of promising young pitchers. Jacob deGrom can take his place with any of them. He is the real deal. The right-hander has allowed six earned runs in his last five starts spanning 32 2/3 innings. deGrom has 38 strikeouts during this span.

Only Houston has a lower batting average versus right-handers in the American League than Seattle. The Mariners have dropped nine of their last 12 interleague home games when facing a righty. 

The Mariners want to give Felix Hernandez and Hisahi Iwakuma an extra day of rest so they have brought Erasmo Ramirez back into the rotation to start this game. Ramirez was sent down to the minors on June 25 after going 0-4 with a 4.89 ERA in his last 10 starts. Ramirez has been at his worst in interleague competition going 0-2 with a 7.77 ERA in five career starts versus NL foes. Seattle is 4-12 in Ramirez's last 16 starts.

The Mets hit 21 points higher when they play at AL parks. New York is 13-6 in its last 19 interleague away contests.

There are certain flats spots in a season and this sure looks like one for Seattle. The Mariners came out of All-Star break playing the Angels in an important division series. Each game was decided by one run. One game was decided in the ninth inning. The other games went 12 and 16 innings.

The Mariners just defeated the Mets last night. So in the last four days, the Mariners have played 46 innings with their bullpen logging 26 1/3 innings during this span. 

(Editor's note: Long-time Vegas pro Stephen Nover has his signature and most rare play, his 100-Dimer, going today in addition to this free selection. Stephen has cashed better than 70 percent lifetime on his 100-Dimers and is 2-0 this baseball season on his 100-Dime plays.)   

MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Detroit Tigers
in 2h

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Detroit Tigers -118

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.  They have so much more to play for than the Diamondbacks at this point in the season as they are leading the AL Central, while Arizona is in 4th place in the NL West.

The Tigers also have the edge on the mound in this one.  Rick Porcello is having a fine season, going 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.181 WHIP over 18 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.

Chase Anderson has been mediocre at best this season for Arizona.  The right-hander has gone 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.400 WHIP over 10 starts in 2014.  Anderson has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 2.045 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Tigers are 12-3 in their last 15 road games.  Detroit is 8-1 in Porcello's last nine road starts.  The Tigers are 9-1 in Porcello's last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Detroit is 55-25 in its last 80 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 42-17 in Porcello's last 59 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Detroit Tuesday.

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MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
in 39m

FREE PLAY for 7/22

St. Louis Cardinals -156

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Wainwright, who is 12-4 with a 1.83 ERA in 19 starts.  He has a microscopic 0.81 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.24 ERA over his last six home starts versus the AL.  Wainwright outdueled Odorizzi in Tampa Bay last month and should have an easier time doing so in St. Louis - the Tampa Bay right-hander has a 6.10 ERA on the road.  The Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games and 0-6 in their last six interleague road games versus a winning team.  They are 2-8 in Odorizzi's last 10 road starts and 0-6 in his last six starts as an underdog.  The Cardinals are 45-19 in Wainwright's last 64 starts.  Take St. Louis.

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MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
in 34m

Tuesday's Free MLB Pick  ---Cleveland Indians -141---

This is a great spot to back the Indians coming off a disappointing loss in the series opener on Monday. Cleveland will be calling up Danny Salazar to start. While Salazar got off to a disappointing start to 2014 after a sensational 2013, he's been sharp in the minors and two of his better starts while he was up in the majors just so happened to come against the Twins. In the two starts combined, he allowed just 5 runs over 12 innings of work. Minnesota will counter with Yohan Pino, who is 1-2 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.350 WHIP over 5 starts. Cleveland's offense has pounded right-handed starters and I look for them to take advantage of the young Pino and win this one rather easily.

Key Trends - Cleveland is 39-14 over their last 53 games played in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record, while Minnesota is just 9-27 in their last 36 games vs a starting pitcher who strikes out 5+ batters/start.

System - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CLEVELAND) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings are 208-97 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE INDIANS!

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MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
  at  5DIMES
in 34m

I'm recommending a play on the KC Royals on Tuesday. KC gets "just what the doctor ordered" tonight as they look to snap a 4-game losing streak. Bruce Chen takes the mound and is the small favorite. Chen has owned the Sox in his last four starts against them. I expect more of the same against a lineup that plates just 3.6 rpg in home night games against left-handers. I also expect a few more runs out of KC. The Royals will face Scott Carroll, who has been tagged for 17 earned runs and 52 base runners in seven home appearances, spanning just 29 IP. Teams have hit .336 against Carroll at US Cellular this season. The Royals have already pounded the Kansas City native in two appearances in 2014 and while they have been struggling at the plate, overall, the Royals are still averaging nearly 5 rpg in road night games against righties. It's the right matchup for the Royals and I'm betting they take full advantage. I'm recommending a play on Kansas City on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
in 2h

Free Pick on Seattle Mariners -

Seattle took the first game of the series 5-2 on Monday and I look for them to keep it going with another easy victory tonight. The Mariners are without a doubt the better team here and getting them as a small home favorite is an absolute gift.

New York's Jacob deGrom has pitched well of late, but he's not been near as effective on the road, where he has a 4.72 ERA and 1.486 WHIP over 6 starts. As for Mariners' starter Erasmo Ramirez, he comes in with a strong 3.54 ERA at home and a red-hot 1.17 ERA over his last 3 starts.

The Mets are just 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games against a team with a winning record, 6-20 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series, 1-6 in their last 7 as a road underdog and 2-6 in deGrom's last 8 starts versus a team with a winning record.

Seattle is 9-3 in their 12 games against a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30, 11-4 in their last 15 after scoring 5+ runs and 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games against a team with a losing record. Take the Mariners!

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