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Dave's Thursday Free Play:
1* on Arizona Diamondbacks -104
The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall. They have scored at least 5 runs in all 8 of those victories. The Milwaukee Brewers have lost 3 in a row and have given up a total of 25 runs in those 3 games. Zach Davies is in line to get rocked again here as he has a 5.44 ERA in 9 starts this year, and a 6.93 ERA in his 5 road starts. Robbie Ray has been great on the road this season, going 2-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 4 starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Davies' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Arizona.
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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Thursday Free Pick - Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (-) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 10:10 ET - As long-time followers know, I don't like to lay big prices in money line sports and am a huge proponent of underdog value. However, this spot is taking advantage of a moderate price (certainly not a huge favorite) in a situation where we have a solid pitching edge based on the match-up. While the Cardinals Michael Wacha has a much lower ERA than the Dodgers Kenta Maeda, their WHIP stats are nearly identical. In other words, Maeda has simply been a victim of some bad luck and a few big hits. The Dodgers right-hander has actually been pitching well and, particularly of late, he's on fire on the mound! Additionally, he was rock solid against the Cardinals in his lone start against them (last season) while Wacha has been hit hard in his two most recent starts versus the Dodgers and he was fortunate more runs weren't scored against him. Wacha gave up 18 hits in just 10 innings spanning his two starts against the Dodgers last season. Maeda allowed only 5 hits in nearly 6 innings of work against the Cards in his lone start against them last season and that outing was in St Louis. Maeda will prove even tougher to hit at home where he has a 0.99 WHIP this season. Also, the Dodgers right-hander comes into this outing having allowed only 13 hits in the 20 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Wacha has a 1.50 WHIP in his road starts this season and I look for the Dodgers to bounce back after getting crushed 6-1 last night. Prior to that defeat the Dodgers had won 5 of their last 6 while the Cardinals had lost 5 of their last 6. The Cards are still just 6-9 against teams with a winning record this season and LA is still a solid 17-8 at home this year. Free Pick on Los Angeles Dodgers money line in late night Thursday action. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach
10* FREE MLB PICK (Tigers/Astros UNDER 9)
I'll take my chances here on this one staying UNDER the total of 9. I believe we are getting some value here with this number because of the poor road numbers for Tigers starter Justin Verlander. It's not like this is a backend of the rotation guy. Verlander arguably should have won the AL Cy Young last year and he's been throwing better of late and most importantly has owned the Astros, going 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA in 7 career starts against them. Houston will send out Michael Fiers who has a 5.14 ERA in 8 starts overall, but has a strong 3.50 ERA over 3 home starts and a 2.35 ERA over 4 career starts against Detroit. Give me the UNDER 9!
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on St. Louis Cardinals +139
The St. Louis Cardinals won yesterday 6-1 as +140 dogs. They are priced in the same range tonight and I like the value we are getting with them. Michael Wacha has been great all season with a 2-1 record and 2.74 ERA over seven starts. Wacha is also 3-2 with a 2.23 ERA in six starts against the Dodgers all-time. Kenta Maeda is 3-2 with a 5.03 ERA for the Dodgers over seven starts. The Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 road games after allowing 2 runs or less. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games, including 8-0 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter.
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