Larry Ness

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET.

Elton Brand was as solid NBA player but he's made quite a mark as Philly's GM here in the 2018-19 season. Brand made his second big move since the beginning of the year by adding PF Tobias Harris from the Clippers (at the trade deadline), after dealing for Jimmy Butler earlier in campaign. However, 37-21 Philadelphia would not have homecourt advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs if the season ended at the All-Star break. The 76ers will try to continue to try to push their way up the standings when they return from the break by hosting the 26-30 Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the No. 8 spot in the East heading into the final stretch and are finishing off a six-game road trip that bridged the break.

Miami opened its trip with a 118-108 win at Portland (Feb 5) but then dropped THREE in a row. However, the Heat closed out the Western Conference portion of their trip with a 112-101 victory at Dallas on Feb 13. After finishing up with Philadelphia, Miami will play 10 of its next 12 at home, including two games against the Pistons. Miami began to surge after former All-Star PG Goran Dragic went down and the team inserted SF Justise Winslow into the starting lineup and let him take over playmaking duties. Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG) is on the verge of returning from arthroscopic knee surgery. Is that good or bad news? Winslow (12.4-5.5-4.1) has been playing at the point with Wade (14.0-3.8-4.3) coming off the bench. SG Richardson (17.6) leads the team in scoring and center Hassan is a double-double 'machine,' averaging 12.8 & 12.4. Miami's D has been good all season, allowing 105.7 PPG  on 44.3% shooting (both rank 3rd-best in the NBA).

Philadelphia is third in the league in scoring (115.9 PPG) but 20th in points allowed (112.2). The 76ers recognize that they need to get better on that end of the floor to compete for the East title. "We know that offensively we are a top-power team," Tobias Harris told reporters. "We also know that if we become a top-power defensive team that's going to make us really tough to play against so that's how we've got to look at it." Harris has been an excellent addition, averaging 17.8 points on 51.9 percent shooting in four games since joining the team from the Los Angeles Clippers. Center Embiid (27.3 & 13.5) is an established All-Star plus the trio of Butler (18.8-5.0-3.8), Redick (18.6) and Simmons(16.8-9.0-7.9) give Philly quite the starting-five.

Miami has been inconsistent all season, with only one win streak longer than two games. The Heat now look to complete this six-game road trip with a visit to Philly, a trip which began way back on Feb 5 (odd, to say the least). As for Philly, the 76ers have to be VERY anxious to get back on the court and get rid of the 'bad taste' left by their Feb 12 home loss to the Celtics (0-3 vs Boston this year!). Miami doesn't score much (ranks 27th at 105.1 PPG) and Philly averages a whopping 119.1 PPG at home. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

Oregon State is 16-8 on the season, including 8-4 in Pac-12 play (Beavers are a surprise, sitting in second-pace in the Pac-12). Oregon State comes to Los Angeles this weekend to play UCLA and USC, looking to nail-down a top-four seed in the upcoming Pac-12 tourney. However, the Beavers know that there is little margin of error, as they sit just a half-game ahead of Arizona State and Utah. Up first are the UCLA Bruins, who are only 13-13 on the season, including 6-7 on conference play. UCLA dismissed head coach Steve Alford on December 31, 2018, two days after the Bruins' ugly 73-58 loss to Liberty. It marked the first time the program ever had made a coaching change in the middle of the season. Murry Bartow (son of former UCLA coach Gene Bartow) was named interim coach for the Bruins and in his first game (at home vs Stanford), UCLA ended a four-game slide with a 92-70 win over the Cardinal. Two more wins followed but the 'honeymoon' period is over for UCLA's interim coach, as following that 3-0 start in the conference, UCLA has dropped SEVEN of its last 10 Pac-12 games.

Oregon State is fresh off its first season sweep of rival Oregon in nine years, as the Beavers' 72-57 win over the Ducks was the team's fourth win in its last five games (the 8-4 start is the program’s best 12-game conference start since the 1990-91 squad began 11-1). 6-8 forward Tres Tinkle leads OSU isn scoring (20.1), rebounding (7.6) and assists (4.1). Along with guards/brothers Stephen Thompson Jr. (16.3-4.6-3.5) and Ethan Thompson (13.7 &5.), the trio accounts for more than two-thirds (67.6 percent) of Oregon State’s scoring.

Scoring hasn't been the problem for the Bruins, who are averaging a conference-best 79.6 in Pac-12 play (78.0 PPG on the season ranks 62nd in the nation ). However, sloppy ball handling (league-most 16.2 turnovers in conference action), off-target free-throw shooting (conference-worst 62.8 percent for the season) and poor defense (79.5 points surrendered per Pac-12 contest) have been UCLA’s downfalls. The Bruins' 104-80 loss at Stanford last Saturday night is only the latest example. 6-7 swingman Kris Wilkes (17.3 & 4.8), PG Hands (13.0 & 6.2 APG) and fellow guard Ali (9.7) give UCLA a formidable perimeter group. However, 7-0 freshman center Moses Brown (11.0 & 8.8) is UCLA's lone frontcourt contributor of note.

Sure, Oregon St has had the much better season but the Beavers are ripe for the taking in this one. Oregon St is fresh off its first season sweep of rival Oregon in nine years and the Beavers are now eyeing another sweep Thursday when they visit UCLA (beat the Bruins 79-66 on Jan 13 at home). However, if Oregon St was to complete the series sweep tonight at Pauley Pavilion, it would mark the first time that it would have happened in 31 years! UCLA may be a modest 10-5 at home this season but the Bruins have won 40 of 48 games in Pauley Pavilion since the start of the 2016-17 season. Expect a UCLA 'uprising!' 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Revenge Rout is on USC at 9:00 ET.

Oregon was the Pac-12's preseason favorite but a regular season Pac-12 championship is no longer a realistic goal for the Ducks. Oregon is 15-10 overall, including just 6-6 in the Pac 12. The Ducks trail first-place Washington (12-1) by FIVE games with just six games remaining to go. The eighth-place Ducks travel to USC on Thursday night. The 14-12 Trojans begin the week in a three-way tie for fifth at 7-6 and are still within striking distance of a top-four finish and a key first round bye in next month's Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas.

Oregon comes in off a 72-57 Civil War loss at second-place Oregon State on Saturday. Oregon still has games at home against Arizona State and at likely Pac-12-champ Washington on the agenda, as it tries to build its case for an NCAA at-large berth. However, an at-large bid is likely a stretch. Senior forward Paul White told The Oregonian on Saturday, "We have six regular-season games and then a huge part of our season, which is the (Pac-12) tournament."A top-four finish is not impossible but it won't be easy, either. Oregon lost its best player, 7-2 freshman center and likely lottery pick Bol Bol, to a left-foot injury before conference play started. Bol was leading the the team in scoring (21.0), rebounding (9.6) and blocks (2.7) while also shooting an eye-popping 52 percent from three-point range. Louis King, a 6-9 freshman forward, has helped pick up some of the slack, averaging 16.0 points in Pac-12 action which is tops for any freshman (he averages 12.3 & 5.4 RPG on the season). Junior PG Payton Pritchard (11.8-3.9-4.4) runs the team and the 6-9 White (10.5 & 3.8) is the other double digit scorer.

USC comes into this contest after snapping a three-game losing streak with a 89-66 victory at California on Saturday (note: Cal is 0-13 in league play), 6-10 senior forward Bennie Boatwright leads the team in scoring (18.4) and made a USC record 10, 3-pointers on 13 attempts in the win at Cal which also tied the Pac-12 record for treys. Boatwright is averaging 21.3 points in conference play, which ranks second to Washington State's Robert Franks (22.4). He's joined up front by 6-11 junior forward Nick Rakocevic (15.5 & 9.8). Junior guard Jonah Mathews (12.7) is also averaging in double figures, while shooting 42.6 percent from three-point range. Four more guards average between 8.0 and 9.3 PPG.

USC has lost its last two home games to Utah (77-70) and Colorado (69-65) but I believe that makes them even more dangerous in this one (Trojans opened the season 11-2 at the Galen Center and had won SEVEN straight at home before stumbling vs the Utes!). I doubt that USC needs "extra motivation" (a possible top-four seed should be enough) but I will note that the Trojans will be trying to avenge their worst defeat of conference play this season, an 81-60 loss on Jan 13 in Eugene. REVENGE works in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My CBB 10* Game of the Week is on BYU at 9:00 ET.

No one is surprised that Gonzaga sits atop the WCC at 12-0 (25-2 Zags are currently No. 2 in the AP poll). Tonight in WCC play, the 20-6 San Francisco Dons will travel to the Marriott Center in Provo to take on the 18-10 BYU Cougars. The Dons won their third straight game this past Saturday when they edged Portland 68-63 in OT. At 8-4, San Francisco is tied for third in the WCC with St Mary's. The Cougars come in off winning their fifth in a row after defeating Loyola Marymount 70-62 this past Saturday. BYU sits 10-3 in WCC play, second to only Gonzaga.

San Francisco had trouble on the offensive end in regulation against the Pilots but Dons found their offensive rhythm in the extra period and were able to pull away after taking a 63-58 lead with 2:21 left in OT. San Francisco starts guards Mineland (14.9 & 4.8), Ferrari (14.3-5.4 APG) and Ratinho (9.7), with the 7-0 Lull (8.5 & 5.3) and the 6-8 Renfro (7.2 & 5.2) up front. However, the 6-9 McCarthy comes off the bench to average 9.4 PPG and a team-high 6.5 RPG.

BYU trailed by a 36-30 margin at halftime vs the Lions but was outstanding defensively in the second half and was able to pull away after a 14-0 Cougars run gave BYU a 66-58 lead with just :51 seconds left in regulation. BYU can score, averaging 80.1 PPG (39th in the nation). The 6-8 Childs leads the Cougars in scoring (21.1) and rebounding (9.6) but the biggest percentage of BYU's offense comes from the perimeter. PG Haws averages 17.5 PPG and 5.2 APG and Hardnett just misses out on double digits with 9.7 PPG, Another trio of guards combine for about 20 PPG. BYU's problem is a defense that allows 75.1 PPG (264th)

BYU's Hardnett has been sidelined by a hand injury (expected to be out here) but the Cougars haven't missed a beat. BYU lost at St Mary's by 20 points back on Jan 5 but has since gone 9-2, losing badly at San Francisco and at home to Gonzaga. Since the loss to the Zags, BYU has won FIVE in row (4-1 ATS), Hard to believe the Cougars WON'T well-remember their loss at San Francisco and it's impossible to ignore the fact that the Dons are 0-7 ATS in seven WCC road games. Make that 0-8!

Good luck...Larry