Larry Ness

My 10* Conference Finals Game of the Year is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET.

This series is tied 2-2 but THREE of the four games have been decided by double digits (two by 20-plus points!). Miami won Game 1 and the teams have alternated wins and losses. When a series is knotted at 2-all in a best-of-seven series, the Game 5 winner ultimately prevails 82% of the time. The Celtics rode their defense to a 102-82 victory in Game 4. Both teams were without key players Monday, but the Heat were more out of sync without NBA Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (groin). The Celtics were without the league's Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (ankle) but were still able to do some high-level defending.

Boston opened an 18-1 lead in Game 4, as Miami missed its first 14 FG attempts. It was 29-11 at the end of the first quarter and 57-33 at the half. Miami starters scored a total of just 18 points, shootings combined 7 of 36 from the floor. Tucker (17 pints in Fame 3) and Strus (16 points) combined to go 0 of 11 from the floor without accounting for a SINGLE point. Butler played 27 minutes and scored just six points (3 of 14 from the floor) and Adebayo, coming off one of his best-ever performances in Game 3 (31-10-6), was held to nine points and six rebounds.

Boston's Tatum, who scored just 10 points in Game 3 (was 3 of 14 from the floor), rebounded to score 31 points but Jaylen Brown (off a career-best 40-point effort in Game 3) made just 5 of 20 shots for 12 points. Was Boston's defense the reason for Miami's poor shooting, or did Miami just 'stink out the joint?' Boston shot just 39.7% in Game 4, including 8 of 34 on three-pointers. Teams that shoot that poorly, rarely (if ever) win a game like that by 20 points. We won't know which players will be available until game-time but note that Miami was 7-0 SU at home this postseason, before losing Game 2 at home in this series. This morning, the Heat were listed as a home dog and it's noteworthy the Heat have been favored in 35 of their last 36 home games entering Wednesday, AND Miami is 4-1 outright as a home underdog this season. The Heat take a 3-2 lead with a "W' and it's "back to Boston" for Game 6.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The 2021 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The NL East rivals opened a four-games series in Atlanta on Monday. Both owned 19-22 records, EIGHT games behind the Mets in the division. Philadelphia 7-3 on Monday but Atlanta bounced back with a 7-6 win last night. That leaves the teams right where they started on Monday (both are now 20-23), as they get set for the third game of the series. The Mets remain EIGHT game ahead of both teams, atop the NL East.

Ranger Suarez (4-2, 4.12 ERA) gets the ball for the Phillies on Wednesday, while the Braves counter with Charlie Morton (3-3, 4.95 ERA). Suarez is in his fifth season but has made just 23 starts in his 91 career appearances. His lifetime record is 19-10 with a 2.92 ERA. He's made EIGHT of those starts in 2022, with Philly going 6-2. However, the pitching edge goes to Atlanta with Charlie Morton. Morton turned his career around beginning in 2017. Excluding the COVID season of 2020, he has gone 49-22 in the last four full seasons, playing on teams that have played in THREE World Series (winning twice) in that span (with Houston in 2017, with Tampa Bay in 2019 and with Atlanta in 2021). Morton allowed two runs on two hits and a walk in 5.1 innings against the Cincinnati Reds on April 8, earning a "W" in Atlanta's 7-6 victory. However, over his next four starts, allowed 16 ERs in 18.1 innings (7.85 ERA) in going 0-3 (Braves lost all four). However, Morton has been outstanding in his last three starts, going 2-0 (Atlanta is 3-0) with a 2.20 ERA.

Atlanta won last night's game with a two-run 9th to pull out a one-run win. The Braves won't need any late-game heroics this time around, behind another solid outing by Morton. Atlanta's offense has struggled for most of this season but the Braves have had double-digit hits in each of the last two games. Atlanta is 'PERFECT,' at least for tonight.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. Milwaukee was a preseason favorite to win its divisions again in 2022. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The teams opened a three-game series Monday in San Diego, with the Padres coming away with a 3-2 win in 10 innings. The Brewers bounced back last night with a 4-1 victory. The Brewers are on an 11-game road trip, as they play the rubber match of this series on Wednesday afternoon. The 27-16 Brewers are three games ahead of the Cards in the NL Central, while the Padres are now 28-15, falling 1 1/2-games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. 

Aaron Ashby (0-3, 3.49 ERA) will start for the Brewers against the Padres' Yu Darvish (4-1, 3.91 ERA). Ashby made13 appearances (four starts) in 2021, pitching a modest 31.2 innings. He's made nine appearances in 2022 but just THREE have been starts. He's 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in 13.2 innings during those contests (Phillies are 2-1). The veteran Darvish opened the season with six scoreless innings, taking a no-decision in a 4-2 team loss. He then got just FIVE outs in his second start, allowing nine ERs. However, over his last six starts, he's 4-0 and the Padres 6-0 with Darvish posting a 2.58 ERA. 

The Padres have faced quality Milwaukee starters in the first two games of this series (Houser and Burnes) but here draw Ashby. Darvish is 2-2 lifetime against the Brewers with a 2.13 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and a .188 opponents' batting average in seven starts vs the Brewers (teams are 4-3). It's also worth noting that Darvish is 10-5 with a 3.13 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a .201 opponents' batting average in 23 career starts at Petco Park. "Getaway" win goes to the Padres.

Good luck...Larry