Larry Ness

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Nationals (7:35 EST).

For this pick, I’m concentrating completley on the starting pitching. Tanner Roark has officially turned a corner and looks to finish up the season strong, while Braves’ veteran RA Dickey is once again stumbling towards the finish line. 

Ultimately I feel that Roark should be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup.

Roark (13-9, 4.43 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over these very Braves on Thursday. 

Over his past ten trips to the hill Roark has posted a solid 3.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 (note that he’s 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA on the road.)

Dickey (9-10, 4.41) was most recently rocked for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. 

Over three starts in September Dickey has posted a deplorable 10.02 ERA and 2.09 WHIP (note that he owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA at home as well.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is 65-31 (+23.7 units) this year in all “night” games and 68-45 (+4.6 units) against right-handed starters, while Atlanta is just 46-56 (-2.1 units) in all night games and 52-69 (-9.2 units) against right-handed starters.

I’m expecting Roark to come in razor focused here and I have a hard time seeing Dickey matching pace. Value swings to the hard-hitting Nationals, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Indians/Angels (4:05 EST).

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to have eclipsed the posted number. 

The hard-hitting visiting side hands the ball to Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.52 ERA) who was moved to the bullpen back on September 5th after he failed to get out of the first inning of that start. 

Note that Salazar owns a poor 5.56 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Parker Bridwell (8-2, 3.71) who comes in off a gem against Texas on Saturday, going six scoreless while striking out seven in the victory. Note though that previous to that Bridwell had been shelled for 19 runs over 24 innings spanning five trips to the hill. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Bridwell’s peripherals (4.56 FIP, 6.0 K/9) suggest that immediate regression is on the horizon after his latest performance (note that he owns a pedestrian 4.11 ERA at home this season as well.)

These teams combined for 11 runs in the Indians’ 6-5 win yesterday and I believe all signs point to a similar final combined result here as well. This number is just a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.

Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend.

Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year.

Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries.

The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards. 

Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards. 

RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend. 

The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs. 

I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco 49ers (8:25 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The 49ers weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this year, but at 0-3 and with a three-game road trip on deck, Thursday night essentially becomes a “must win” game for San Francisco.

It’s a short week as well, which always favors the home side no matter the situation. 

LA looked good in beating an Andrew Luck-less Colts team, but came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-20 setback at home to the Redskins. 

There’s no question that the Rams look better under new coach Sean McVay, but they haven’t gotten around the corner quite yet.

LA QB Jared Goff was just 15 of 24 for 224 yards and one TD, while RB Todd Gurley had 88 yards and a score in last week’s setback.

In San Francisco’s 9-6 loss in Seattle QB Brian Hoyer was 15 of 27 for just 99 yards. However, RB Carlos Hyde had 124 yards on 15 carries. 

The big news of course was San Francisco’s defense though, which looked very good for a second straight week; make sure to keep your eyes on LB NaVorro Bowman, who had ten tackles on Sunday.

I’ll point out as well that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road fav of three points or less, while the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home dog of three points or less.

A great oveall “situational” play which is backed by strong and relevant trends. I like the more desperate team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry