Larry Ness

My 1* Free Play is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST).

Washington took Game’s 1 and 2 at home. Carolina then took Game’s 3 and 4 at home.

The Capitals took Game 5 at home 6-0, before the Hurricanes then took Game 6 at home 5-2. 

Does anyone see a pattern here?

Carolina has in fact outscored Washington 12-3 at home, while being outscored 14-5 in the three games in the nation’s capital.

Note that the Hurricanes are just 22-22 on the road this year, averaging 2.77 goals and allowing 2.93 in those contests. 

Washington on the other hand is 27-17 at home for the season, averaging 3.43 goals and conceding 2.64 in those contests. 

The experience and the home ice advantage make the Capitals worth the price of admission in this one in my opinion. Consider Washington in Game 7.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET.

The Dodgers opened the season 8-2 but then lost SIX in a row. However, LA had won SEVEN of its last eight before losing 7-2 at Chicago on Tuesday. The Cubs opened 3-8 but Tuesday's win makes it EIGHT wins in the team's last 10 games, as the Cubs moved to 11-10 one game over .500 for the first time since winning their season opener. Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez both homered for Chicago, supporting Jose Quintana’s third straight strong outing. The loss was just the second in nine games for the Dodgers but they failed to hit a HR for only the fourth time in 25 games this year.

Wednesday's starters are Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.40 ERA) for LA and Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.77 ERA) for Chicago. Buehler was taken 24th overall in the 2015 MLB Draft and exploded on the MLB scene late last season. Buehler finished 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) on the season but was "something special" the last two months of the year. Buehler took the mound in Game No. 163 against the Rockies last October and allowed just one hit in 6.2 scoreless innings as LA clinched a sixth straight NL West title with a 5-2 win. That game was the 12th time in Buehler's final 13 regular season starts in which he had held an opponent to two ERs or less. However, Buehler has been inconsistent through his first four starts of 2019 (note his 5.40 ERA), although he’s coming off his best outing of the season. He registered a season-high eight strikeouts while limiting Cincinnati to an unearned run and three hits over 6.1 innings on Wednesday in a 3-2 win. This marks his first start vs the Cubs.

The veteran Hamels had a poor 2019 debut (5 ERs allowed over 5 IP vs Texas) but has been dialed in during his last three starts, with 19 strikeouts over 21 innings without issuing a walk (he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA). He comes off a dominant effort last Wednesday at Miami, fanning a season-high eight batters while limiting the Marlins to three hits over seven scoreless innings. Hamels is 3-2 with an outstanding 1.86 ERA in nine career regular season starts against the Dodgers.

I had the Cubs yesterday, noting that they had outscored the Dodgers 35-23 in seven meetings last season. The Cubs have won or split six straight home series dating to last year and can clinch another one when they host the Dodgers for the middle contest of their three-game series. The Dodgers average a National League-best 5.52 runs per game but they have scored two or less runs in six of the team's 10 losses. Up against the red-hot Hamels, the Dodgers could have trouble scoring again (note: The Cubs are allowing opponents just 2.44 runs in nine Wrigley games in 2019). Meanwhile, Buehler has allowed five ERs in TWO of his four starts here in 2019. It does mark his first-ever start vs the Cubs but it CAN'T be good news that he faced the Cubs in his lone relief appearance last season, getting ripped for five runs on five hits in one inning! Not sure why this game is basically a pick'em. Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:07 ET.

The San Francisco Giants hit a season-high four HRs in snapping Toronto's four-game winning streak by earning a 7-6 victory. The Giants conclude an eight-game road trip (3-4 so far) with a chance to complete a two-game sweep of the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon. Pablo Sandoval had three hits and a HR, while Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Joe Panik also homered for the Giants, who entered the series with the third-fewest runs scored in the majors. An eighth-inning grand slam by Toronto's Rowdy Tellez made it a one-run game but coming off a 6-1 road trip, the Blue Jays fell to Toronto just 4-7 at Rogers Centre on the season.

Lefty Drew Pomeranz (0-2, 4.82 ERA) will take the mound for San Francisco, while Toronto hands the ball to Clay Buchholz (0-0, 3.38 ERA). The two pitchers have 12 1/2 years of experience with the Red Sox between them, but played together at Fenway Park for just a half season, in 2016, after Pomeranz was traded from the San Diego Padres. Pomeranz had a season-high seven strikeouts at Washington in  his last start but took the 4-2 loss after giving up four runs on six hits over just 4.2 innings. It marked the fourth time in as many outings that he has failed to go beyond five innings. Pomeranz has 10 career appearances (eight starts / teams are 5-3) against the Blue Jays, going 3-2 with a 4.26 ERA.

Buchholz started the season on the injured list as he continued to recover from a flexor tendon injury in his right elbow, his third flexor tendon injury since 2015. He has made just two starts this season. He turned in a strong season debut in his first start with Toronto (April 13), but settled for a no-decision despite limiting Tampa Bay to one run on six hits over six innings, although the Jays won 3-1. However, he labored some in a no-decision at Minnesota last time out (April 18), allowing three runs and three walks on six hits in 4.2 innings of game the Jays also won, 7-4..

The Giants did have those four HRs while scoring seven runs on Tuesday but the San Francisco remains 29th in scoring (3.08 RPG) and OPS (.616), while ranking 28th in team BA (.212). The Giants face Buchholz, who enjoyed success against San Francisco with Arizona last season, posting a 1-0 record and 1.89 ERA in three starts (he's faced the Giants just four times in his career but owns a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings). Let me add that he also owns an 11-3 record at Rogers Centre in his career and that in his lone home start this season, held Tampa Bay to one run on six hits in six innings. The left-handed Pomeranz has not gone more than five innings in any of his four 2019 starts and will face a Toronto lineup which is 5-1 (+$615) vs lefties so far in 2019.

Good luck...Larry