Larry Ness

My free play is on the Phil Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox won again last night, as a pinch-hit, go-ahead homer in the eighth inning led to a 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. It was Boston's fifth straight win and 11th in 12 outings to open August. The Red Sox are currently on pace to win 115 games and sit 10 games of the Yankees in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Phillies have mustered just nine runs en route to losing four of their last five games, dropping them two games behind National League East-leading Atlanta. Philadelphia currently owns the second NL's wild card spot and the Phillies sit just one game behind Milwaukee. However, the wild card field is crowded, as the Cards are just one game back of the Phillies, with the Rockies 1 1/2 games back and the Dodgers 2 1/2 games back.

Nathan Eovaldi (5-4, 3.74 ERA) began the 2018 season with the Rays but was traded to the Red Sox before the July 31 deadline. He began his Boston career with consecutive scoreless starts but allowed eight runs (just four earned) in just 2 2/3 innings in Friday's 19-12 win against Baltimore (Eovaldi had a no decisions). Eovaldi takes the mound with a 3-4 mark with a 3.51 ERA in nine career starts versus Philadelphia. Vince Velasquez (8-9, 3.98 ERA) comes off 6-0 loss at Arizona in his last outing (four runs in four innings). The Phillies are an unimpressive 9-13 in Velasquez's starts in 2018. He has faced the Red Sox just once in his four-year big-league career, as a member of the Houston Astros back in 2015. In that contest, he gave up three runs and struck out seven batters in six innings in an 8-3 win.

The Philadelphia offense has struggled in the last week, as the team has scored just 16 runs in its last seven games (2.3 runs per game), going 2-5 in that stretch. However, while Boston's easily owns MLB's best record and the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored (among a bevy of other offensive categories), they have scored just five runs in taking two of three from the Phillies in 2018. I'm not sold even a little on Eovaldi plus will note that previous to Velasquez's most recent start, he had allowed only five ERs over 32 1/3 innings of his prior six starts (1.39 ERA). Boston can't win them all. Take the Phillies.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

I think the Reds offer great value in a bounce back roll at home today after yesterday’s humbling 8-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.24 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Bieber has been better than average this year with a 58/11 K/W over 57 innings of work. But note that his 4.24 ERA and 1.42 WHIP aren’t anything to write home about.

The home side counters with Robert Stephenson (0-1, 6.75) who has been called up to make this start. Stephenson comes in on top form, having posted a minuscule 1.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 68/22 K/W over 56 innings spanning nine starts in Triple-A.

Despite yesterday’s setback, note that Cincinnati is still a profitable 10-7 (+4.3 units) this year in all inter-league contests. 

And despite yesterday’s win, note that Cleveland is still a money-burning 3-6 (-5.6 units) in its last nine on the road as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. 

I like Stephenson to get the better of Bieber. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (3:35 EST).

I had a play on the A’s in their victory yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (8-7, 4.11 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Sunday. Leake’s been decent of late, but I still think he’ll have his hands full today with this difficult opponent/venue.

The home side counters with Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.53) who went seven scoreless against Detroit on Friday, allowing one walk and striking out two in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. It was his third quality start of the year and there’s no reason not to think that the veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well (note that Anderson sports a very respectable 3.25 ERA in all day games so far this year).

Note as well that Seattle is a sub-par 19-20 (-6 units) this year against southpaws, while Oakland is 47-29 (+21.9 units) this season against right-handed pitching.

Look for Anderson to get the better of his veteran counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that one came up empty, I like the revenge-minded home side to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-7, 3.40 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over eight innings on a no-decision to Colorado on Friday. 

Guerra is putting together his best campaing of his four year career, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (8-9, 4.02) who gave up two runs while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Washington on Friday. While he’s just 4-6 at home, he sports a much better ERA in Chicago (3.29) compared to on the road (4.65).

Note that despite yesterday’s victory, the Brewers are still just 18-30 (-16.1 units) in all day games this year. And despite yesterday’s setback, note that the Cubs are still 36-21 (+5.3 units) in all day contests this season. 

I like Hendricks to get the better of Guerra and for the Cubs to answer for yesterday’s setback. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry