Larry Ness

My 9* play is on the Was Capitals at 8:00 ET.

Both Washington (2-1-2) and Dallas (1-3-1) have played nothing but one-goal games this season, including the Stars winning 4-3 (OT) in Pittsburgh this past Tuesday. Both clubs come into this contest off a loss, as Caps blew a two-goal lead in a 6-5 loss at Nashville on Thursday, while the Stars fell to 0-1-1 at home this season after blowing a two-goal lead in a 3-2 shootout setback to Calgary on the same night.

Alex Ovechkin scored twice Thursday, giving him three goals this season, as the future Hall of Famer is showing no signs of slowing down. T.J. Oshie is also off to a fast start with three goals, scoring on his only shot against Nashville. Goalie Braden Holtby (1-1-2 with a 3.67 GAA and .868 SP this season is expected between the pipes Saturday but he's 2-4-2 with a 4.02 goals-against average and .867 save percentage in nine career games (eight starts) versus the Stars. Roope Hintz recorded an assist on the power play Thursday for Dallas and is tops on the club with four goals and five points. Tyler Seguin (two) is the only other multiple goal scorer on the team. Goalie Ben Bishop ( with linemates Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov each tallying once. Ben Bishop is 1-2-1 on the season (2.48 GAA & .910 SP).

I like the quick "rematch" situation here and expect the Caps to get some "revenge." Holtby's numbers vs the Stars are a mild concern but Bishop hasn't dome much better in his career vs the Caps. He made 29 saves in Tuesday's win at Washington but is just 4-6-2 with a 3.37 GAA and .891 SP in 13 games against Washington. Holtby is a former Vezina Trophy winner and his goaltending sparked the Caps to their Stanley Cup win in 2018. Washington is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on the Min Wild at 8:30 ET.

The Minnesota Wild have opened 0-3-0 and are hoping that some home cookin' will cure what ails them. All three of the Wild's losses have come on the road as head coach Bruce Boudreau noted. "They've been three road games against three tough teams," he said following his team's losses to Central Division rivals Nashville, Colorado and Winnipeg. "Granted, we would have liked to have won one or two of them. But now we get to go home. No excuses." The Penguins, who are dealing with long-term injuries to key performers, salvaged a split of their season-opening four-game homestand with a 2-1 victory over Anaheim this past Thursday

Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Nick Bjugstad and Alex Galchenyuk are all sidelined by injury, but head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters that he isn't interested in making wholesale changes even with team's injury list growing larger by the day. "I don't think we're going to change our identity or style of play. I think we're going to simplify our style of play," said Sullivan. Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk has limped out of the gate this season by yielding 11 goals on 93 shots this season (3.73 GAA / .882 SP). Those numbers are far above his career numbers i]of .255 GAA and .916 SP.

Simply put, this marks Pittsburgh's first road game of the season, after the injury-riddled Pens were only able to split four home games. The task gets MUCH tougher here. Goaltender Matt Murray (2.52 GAA / .920 SP) has played all four Penguins games but with the team's first set of back-to-back games this weekend, backup Tristan Jarry stands a good chance of getting his first start of the season (that would be nice). The Wild are OVERDUE to play a good game. The time seems "just right' for that to happen in the club's home opener.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Chi Blackhawks at 7:00 ET.

Patrik Laine signed late in training camp following a disappointing season but the 21-year-old forward is off to a flying start as the Winnipeg Jets head to Chicago to face the Blackhawks on Saturday. Laine has 10 points in his first five games for the 3-2-0 Jets (Jets have won THREE of four since losing their season-opener). Winnipeg visits a Chicago team that has opened by losing a pair of one-goal contests. Chicago beagn with a 4-3 loss to Philadelphia on Oct 4 in the NHL Global Series in Prague, Czech Republic and then opened a seven-game homestand with a 5-4 loss to the Sharks (it marks San Jose's lone win in a 1-4 start)..

Laine finished with 20 assists a season ago but already has SEVEN through five games. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck posted his second consecutive strong outing in Thursday's 5-2 home win over the Wild, with 38 saves. He has stopped 75-of-78 shots across the last two games, giving him a 2.68 GAA and .927 SP on teh season. Chicago was playing its first game six days (after opening the season with that game in Prague) on Thursday and maybe that's why the Blackhawks lost FOUR, one-goal leads in the contest.

Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford stopped 29-of-34 shots in Thursday's loss and owns a 4.63 GAA and .875 SP after two games. Robin Lehner, who signed with Chicago as a free agent after playing with the Islanders last season (25-13-5, 2.13 GAA & .930 SP) just may make his debut on Saturday against the Jets. Thursday's loss was the first contest of what will be a SEVEN-game homestand for Chicago and I expect the Blackhawks to grab their first win of the season in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois.

The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th).

Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros jockeyed for the top spot in the American League for much of the regular season, so it is only fitting that they will meet in the 2019 ALCS. It's a rematch of the 2017 ALCS when the Astros outlasted the Yankees in seven games. New York comes in off a 3-game sweep of the Twins (outscored Minnesota 23-7), while the Astros were forced to play all FIVE games to eliminate the Rays, (Houston won Games 1 & 2 , lost Games 3 & 4 and then prevailed 6-1 in Game 5).

The Game 1 starters will be Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) and Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA). Tanaka did not have a very good season but he was excellent against the Twins last Saturday, allowing a single run on three hits with seven strikeouts over five solid innings. He is 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts in the playoffs, including two in the 2017 ALCS against Houston in which he let up just two runs across 13 total innings. Greinke had a very good season pitching for Arizona and Houston (see above), going 8-1 in 10 starts (team was 8-2) for the Astros after the trade. However, Greinke was awful in Game 3 at Tampa Bay, allowing six runs on five hits (including three HRs) in just 3.2 innings.

I realize that Tanaka has a good postseason record but he was very poor on the road in 2019, posting a 6.05 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .287 BAA. Greinke has faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing three runs on seven hits over 12.2 innings (2.13 ERA). One HAS to believe he will be HIGHLY-motivated after that 'ugly' effort vs the Rays. It sure won't hurt his confidence that the Astros are 63-21 at home this season (3-0 at home this postseason), outscoring opponents on average, 6.00-to-3.88 RPG. Let me also remind all that in thae2017 ALCS, the home team won all SEVEN games, with the Astros holding the Yankees to just THREE runs in the four games in Houston. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on Nevada t 4:00 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset by beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. I guess the best news here is that the Nevada had a bye the first weekend of October. Nevada will welcome San Jose St to Reno on Saturday. The Spartans come in off a 32-21 win over New Mexico, giving them a 3-2 record. That may not seem like a big deal but when one considers the Spartans were 2-11 in 2017 and 1-11 in 2018, it is.

QB Josh Love threw for 405 yards in the win over New Mexico and enters this contest completing 61.9% for 1,418 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. However, the Spartans don't have much of a running game, averaging only 105.8 YPG (119th) on a woeful 3.4 YPC. San Jose is scoring 27.6 PPG, while allowing 27.6. Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii. However, the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.8 PPG (115th) on 331.2 YPG (114th).

It's true that San Jose St has made some significant strides in 2019 but the Spartans come into this contest just 1-14 SU on the road since the beginning of 2017. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-28 SU since 2005 plus has beaten San Jose St in NINE of the last 10 meetings (note: San Jose hasn’t won SU in Reno since 2000!). At this price, the home team is the play!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Total of the Week is on Navy/Tulsa Over at 7:30 ET.

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET.

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov).

Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards.

The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase.

Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories

Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th).

This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry