Larry Ness

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.09 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks with two K’s over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Monday.

Quintana though continues to struggle with consistency, as he hasn’t completed six innings in consecutive starts since the start of the year.

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.96) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a victory over San Diego on Monday. 

Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year either, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd with a 2-1, 3.38 ERA thus far.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Cubs are a poor 36-40 (-5.8 units) in their last 76 when on the road and the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while St. Louis is already 8-4 (+3.6 units) this season at home with a money line between +125 and -125. 

I like Flaherty to out duel the “on again, off again” Quintana and for the home side to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

Clay Buchholz has been better than expected for the Diamondbacks in his limited time, but I think that Zach Wheeler and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup.

Wheeler (2-5, 4.98 ERA) will be eager to get back on track here after allowing six runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Previous to this “dud,” Wheeler had posted back-to-back quality efforts though, so I’m not reading too much into the lacklustre performance. Note that Wheeler owns a respectable 3.91 ERA in all day games this year.

Buchholz (1-1, 3.21) comes in off a poor showing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Tuesday. 

As mentioned off the top, Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for the D-Backs to this point, but clearly his early numbers are unsustainable and suffice it to say, I believe the veteran takes another step back here.

Arizona is 23-14 at home this year, while New York is only 14-17 on the road. I’ll point out though that Arizona’s weakness this season has been its play in all day games, going only 10-13 (-3 units) in such situations. 

I expect Wheeler to out duel his overachieving counterpart and I look for the Mets to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (4:10 EST).

A couple of competent hurlers collide in the finale of this three game set and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

Boston hands the ball to the red hot Eduardo Rodriguez (8-1, 3.64 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 victory over Baltimore on Tuesday.

Rodriguez has had difficulty going deep into games, but the victory marked his fifth straight. Rodriguez will now look to improve upon his 3-0, 3.68 ERA road record.

Seattle counters with Mike Leake (7-3, 4.26) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. 

After a shaky start to the 2018 campaign, Leake has looked much better of late, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

As note that Seattle is a poor 60-67 (-15.8 units) in its last 127 against left-handed starters.

Also note that Boston is a superb 40-15 (+16.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST).

Cincinnati sends Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 5.40 ERA) to the hill in the finale of this three game set.

DeSclafani most recently allowed three runs off ten hits with two walks over five innings in a win over the Cardinals on Sunday. This was his second start since September 2016, as he’d be rocked for four runs over four innings in his season debut previous. So which DeSclafani shows up this afternoon?

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-1, 2.16) who gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits with six K’s in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. Musgrove needed only 88 pitches to get through the six frames and he’d also go on to generate ten swinging strikes with his off-speed pitches on just 29 offerings. 

Musgrove has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA at home so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is now 17-14 (+4.9 units) against the division this year, while Cincinnati is just 7-23 (-15 units) in the same position.

When taking into account all of the above factors, I do indeed believe we’re getting great value on Musgrove and the home side. Lay this reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Serbia (8:00 AM EST).

Costa Rica hadn’t been to a World Cup in 12 years before qualifying back in 2014. It drew a tough opening group with Italy, England and Uruguay and not many expected it to last very long.

The Costa Rican’s though would go on to beat both Italy and Uruguay, while drawing with England to take the top spot in the Group Stage, before then getting out of the knock out round with a win over Greece. It was a dream run for Costa Rica, however I believe it’s going to have a much more difficult time of it this time around. 

Costa Rica most recently lost to both Belgium and England in international friendlies and it comes in having lost six of its last eight matches overall. 

Serbia has had mixed results the last few years as well, but it managed to qualify behind a plethora of talent, including players like Branislav Ivanovic, Aleksandar Kolarov, and Milos Veljkovic are in their ranks, along with Luke Milivojevic, Dusan Tadic, Marko Grujic, Nemanja Matic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Adem Llajic, and Aleksandar Mitrovic further up the field.

Serbia most recently hammered Bolivia 5-1, with Mitrovic potting a hat-trick. Serbia now has six wins, one draw and three defeats out of its last ten matches and I believe that “recent form” displayed by both teams absolutely swings the value to the Serbs.

Costa Rica’s back line, which was a strength during its improbable 2014 World Cup campaign, has now become a liability, allowing eight goals in its last ten matches. And that’s not good news facing a Serbian side which has scored in nine of its last ten games, while conceding five over that span.

When you add it all up, Serbia is definitely undervalued in this matchup in my opinion.

Good luck…Larry