Larry Ness

My free play is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The 54-47 NY Mets are the lone team in the NL East with a winning record and they welcome the 54-49 Cincinnati Reds to Citi Field Friday night for the opener of a three-game series. The Mets sit atop the NL East, 3 1/2-games ahead of the 51-51 Phillies and four games up on the 51-52 Braves, who have won the division in each of the last three seasons. The Reds ended a six-year playoff drought last season and were expected to contend in the NL Central (or for an NL wild card spot) in 2021. Cincy visits Queens SEVEN games back of the first-place Brewers in their own division but also trail the 60-45 Padres by five games (San Diego currently holds down the NL's No. 2 wild card spot).

Tonight's starting pitchers are Sonny Gray (2-6, 4.50 ERA) for the Reds and Carlos Carrasco for the Mets. Gray looked like an "up and comer" early on while with Oakland, posting back-to-back 14-win seasons in 2014 and 2015. However, he was traded to the Yankees during the 2017 season and NEVER fulfilled his promise. The Yanks dealt him to the Reds prior to the 2019 season and he pitched well, going 11-8 with a 2.87 ERA in 31 starts (teams was 19-12). However, he was mediocre in 2020 and has been less than mediocre in 2021. The Reds are just 6-8 in his 14 starts and he comes into this game off back-to-back 'ugly 'efforts, lasting just EIGHT innings while allowing 13 ERs (14.63 ERA).

Carlos Carrasco was acquired by the Mets (from Cleveland) last winter in the Francisco Lindor deal and entered spring training with the idea he would be the No. 2 starter in the rotation, surrounded by Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. However, before Carrasco could even pitch in the exhibition season, he tore his right hamstring while running. The New York Mets have waited more than half a season for Carrasco to make his Big Apple debut. Carrasco had back-to-back excellent seasons for Cleveland in 2017 (18-6) and 2018 (17-10) but the 34-year-old did very little in 2019 and 2020.

Carrasco threw just 6.2 innings over three rehab starts, so he will clearly be on a pitch-count, maybe even for the rest of the season (assuming he stays healthy). As noted, Gray is off two miserable starts but it is promising that his road ERA of 3.33 is almost TWO full runs less than his home ERA (5.23). It's difficult to even guess how long Carrasco can last and/or how effective he may be. The teams have similar records but the Reds are a way better offensive team, averaging 4.89 RPG (6th) to the Mets' average of 3.81 RPG (29th). Take the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.

The Angels trail the Athletics for the Wild card spot and they've lost six in a row to Oakland coming into this series. 

Clearly, the home side won't be lacking for motivation today.

LA has been trading wins and losses over its last four games, and after yesterday's 4-0 series opening defeat here to the A's, I look for this pattern to continue.

I say these starting pitchers are evenly matched. Their numbers certainly point to that being the case, as Oakland starter Chris Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while LA's Patrick Sandoval is 3-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

This is a double-revenge spot for Sandoval as well, who has already gone up against Bassitt twice this year, losing 6-2 and 6-0. 

Sandoval in his last outing though struck out 13 in a win over the Twins and he's a big reason why I like the home side here. 

Bassitt is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 11 appearances against LA.

As I said, these starters are essentially a "wash," but I'll give Sandoval the slight edge for throwing at home here. Does the "double revenge" factor matter? I don't think it hurts!

Finally, note that LA is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent. 

A great situational play here on the Angels.

Good luck...Larry