Larry Ness

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-7, 4.45 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Phillies on Wednesday. Newcomb has just two quality starts out of his last seven trips to the hill and he is just 1-5 with a pedestrian 4.68 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (11-7, 3.70) who returns after a short stint on the ten-day DL following a minor groin pull. Freeland has been much more consistent than his counterpart overall this year and he’s been at his best at Coors Field by going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Atlanta is just 26-36 (-3 units) this year following a loss, while Colorado is 36-29 (+7.1 units) following a victory. 

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Newcomb has another long night in store for him. Play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (8:05 EST).

I think that Luis Castillo and the Reds have much more than just a “punchers” chance in this one. The Cubs won decisively yesterday, setting up a classic “letdown” spot on Tuesday in my opinion.

Castillo (2-5, 3.73 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Thursday. 

Castillo has now posted four quality starts out of his last six trips to the hll and he’s now averaging almost a strikeout per inning (note that he owns a highly respectable 2.97 ERA on the road this year.)

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.70) who gave up one run off five hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Wednesday. Hendricks has been good at times this year, not great, and owns a rather pedestrian 2-2, 3.92 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is already 11-7 (+6.2 units) this season after allowing ten runs or more, while Chicago is just 30-31 (-15.1 units) following a victory.

The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST).

I think San Francisco bounces back here after falling 8-3 yesterday (I had a play on Miami in that one.)

The visitors hand the ball to ace Madison Bumgarner (2-5, 2.71 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-1 win over the Cubs on Wednesday. 

The big left-hander has now posted three straight quality outings (posting seven K’s in each) and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 3.21 ERA road record.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (7-8, 3.74) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out just one over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. 

Straily has been very consistent overall this year, but I’ll point out that Miami is just 3-8 (-5.1 units) already this season after three or more consecutive victories.

I like Bumgarner to outduel Straily and as I stated off the top, I look for the Giants to bounce back off yesterday’s defeat. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under Astros/Diamondbacks (3:40 EST).

I like these two starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result I look for this total to fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

The visitors hand the ball to Brad Peacock (10-1, 3.07 ERA) who most recently gave up one run to go along with five strikeouts over 6.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the White Sox on Thursday. Peacock hasn’t been perfect this year, with a few duds thrown in among the mix, but there’s no denying that he’s been at his absolute best on the road by going a sparkling 6-0 with a tiny 2.64 ERA.

The home side counters with Anthony Banda (1-2, 4.60) who has looked solid over three big league starts, most recently allowing three runs to go along with four strikeouts over four innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Thursday.

So far the rookie left-hander has posted 16 K’s over his 15.2 innings of work.

I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go under the number in four of its last seven against teams with winning records, while Arizona has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 15 against clubs with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry