Larry Ness

My free play is on the TB Lightning at 7:35 ET.

The 21-9-1 Toronto Maple Leafs (43 points) will visit the 24-7-1 Tampa Bay Lightning (49 points) on Thursday night in a meeting between the NHL's top two teams. The Lightning own a seven-game winning streak and 10 of their last 11 to open-up a six-point lead on Toronto in the league and Atlantic Division standings. Toronto is off a 4-1 win over Carolina and does own a game in hand.

Key Toronto contributors are forward Mitch Marner, who leads the team with 41 points(note: he has been held goal-less the last 12 games) and John Tavares, who owns a team-high 19 goals. Don't forget Auston Matthews, who has 16 goals in 17 contests this season plus defenseman Jake Gardiner is also on a roll with a goal and seven assists during a five-game point streak.

Captain Steven Stamkos (15 goals / 33 points) has eight goals and four assists during Tampa Bay’s seven-game winning streak. Right wing Nikita Kucherov has assists in three straight games and leads team with 45 points, four more than Brayden Point, who has seven of his team-high 21 goals in the last 10 games. No. 2 goalie Louis Domingue is 11-3-0 since taking over as the No. 1 goalie, but All-Star Andrei Vasilevskiy could be back. 

Vezina Trophy finalist Andrei Vasilevskiy has been out since Nov. 14 with a fractured foot but he took part in the full practice on Wednesday. Lightning head coach Jon Cooper did not say Vasilevskiy would start against Toronto, but he didn't say he wouldn't either, even with some hesitancy in throwing the team's top netminder back in the crease after a month-long absence. Whether it's Domingue or Vasilevskiy, I'll back Tampa Bay, which has scored 36 goals in its seven-game winning streak (5.14 per). Also note that the Lightning are 9-of-23 on the power play (39.1%) the last seven games. Back Tampa Bay, which has won four of the last five meetings with Toronto.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Lakers (8:05 EST).

The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent to open the 2018/19 NBA campaign and after a 111-104 home win over Portland in their latest action, I expect this trend of futility to continue here against this hungry visiting side.

The Lakers come to town off a 108-105 home win over the Heat.

Note that this is a “triple revenge” game for the Lakers as well, including losing the first meeting of the year 124-115 back on October 20th.

LA is quietly dominating, as it comes in having won two straight and six of its last seven. Overall the Lakers average 113.1 PPG and they concede 110.9. LeBron James averages 28.3 points, 7.7 boards and 7.1 assists per night.

Houston averages only 108.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30 points and 5.3 boards per game.

I’ll point out though that the Rockets are a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest, while LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss.

For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST).

It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB. 

In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can.

LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend. 

The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season.

The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll.

I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry