Larry Ness

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET.

The Phillies and Braves opened the 2019 season with a three-game series in Philadelphia, with the Phillies sweeping the Braves and outscoring them 23-11. The two teams had not met since but opened a three-game series Friday in Atlanta, with the Braves holding a 1 1/2-game lead in the National League East standings over the Phillies. In the first matchup between the top-two teams in the NL East in 75 days, the Braves rallied from deficits of 6-2 and 8-4 to win for the FOURTH time this season when trailing after eight innings. Atlanta scored TWICE in the eighth and THREE times in the ninth to win, 9-8. Atlanta has now won 23 of its last 32 games to extend its lead to 2 1/2 games over Philadelphia in the NL East. The crushing loss for Philly gives them NINE losses over the team's last 14 games.

Saturday's pitching matchup features Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58 ERA) and Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59 ERA). Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11 in all of his starts, going +$983 vs the moneyline). Nola posted a poor 5.68 ERA in April but excelled in May by going 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts (Phils were a PERFECT 6-0!), while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He lost his first start of June (it's his LONE loss of 2019!), by allowing SIX runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings (8-2 at San Diego) on June 3 but rebounded to hold Cincinnati to three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings this past Sunday in a no-decision.

Newcomb started 30 games for Atlanta in 2018, going 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA (team was 15-15 in his starts, +$17). The 26-year-old posted a 4.38 ERA in three starts before being demoted to the minors but since returning he's been used as a reliever, posting a 1.42 ERA with a 21-2 KW ratio in 16 appearances over 19 innings. Newcomb replaced Gausman on Monday against Pittsburgh, earning the win in Atlanta's 13-7 victory, allowing just one hit with no walks and six strikeouts in 4.2 innings. He returns to the rotation tonight, taking over for the injured Kevin Gausman (right plantar fasciitis). However, he may not be there long as newly signed Dallas Keuchel could join Atlanta next weekend at Washington.

The Braves' 'miracle' win last night gives Atlanta its first eight-game win streak since May 17-25, 2013 but I say, "Enough is ENOUGH!" I have almost NO faith in Newcomb, who draws a tough mound opponent. Nola is 8-3 in 13 career starts against Atlanta, posting an impressive 2.05 ERA. He has more wins against the Braves than any other opponent and I expect career win No. 9 over the Braves to come tonight. Surely, "the Price is Right!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Run-Line Rout is on the TB Rays at 1:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays entered Friday night's home game with the LA Angels on a three-game losing streak and found themselves down 4-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth. However, the Rays scored NINE runs in the sixth and seventh innings, en route to a 9-4 win while going 8-for-16 with RISP. The victory, coupled with the Yankees' 10-2 loss at the White Sox, moved Tampa Bay a half-game ahead of New York in the AL East race. The Angels saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, despite Shohei Ohtani following up his cycle on Thursday with a hit and an RBI in his first two at-bats in Friday’s setback.Los Angeles is 34-36, leaving them 13 games back of Houston in the AL West. The Angels are all but eliminated in their division, so the rest of the season they will be playing for one of the AL's two wild card spots (good luck!)

The teams meet for the third contest of this four-game set on Saturday afternoon, as rookie left-hander Jose Suarez (1-1, 4.35 ERA) takes on the veteran Charlie Morton (8-0, 2.10 ERA). Suarez has split his first two major-league starts. He was 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA in five games (four starts) with Triple-A Salt Lake before being promoted to make his first ML start on June 2 at Seattle. Suarez allowed three runs on five hits over 5.2 innings in a 13-3 triumph in that one, before suffering a loss in his second major-league start this past Sunday when he allowed two runs on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks over 4.2 innings at home against the Mariners, again (Seattle won 9-3).

Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. Speaking of the All Star game, Morton is making a case to start this year's game next month. He's won his last FOUR outings and hasn't lost in 14 starts in 2019 (he's 8-0 / team is 10-4). In fact, he has won 11 straight decisions dating back to last season. He takes the mound this afternoon, having pitched 14 scoreless innings in two June starts, posting a 15-2 KW ratio.

Let's start with Suarez. He's clearly an "unknown commodity," after just two starts, with both coming against the AL West's worst team (Seattle is 30-43). He takes the mound here vs the Rays, who at 42-27 are one of four AL teams playing better than .600 baseball. As for Morton, I noted that he's pitched 14 scoreless innings in his two June starts and will add here that he's won FOUR straight starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a .151 BAA in that span. Morton hasn't lost in 21 starts dating to a 3-2 defeat against the Seattle Mariners on Aug 11, when he was still with the Houston Astros. It's the longest unbeaten streak in the majors. Here in 2019, I noted that the Rays were 10-4 in is starts and will add that just ONE of the 10 wins have come by one run, with the Rays winning those 10 games by an averaged margin of 4.1 RPG. It also doesn't hurt that Morton's faced the Angels seven times in his career, with his teams winning SIX times! Lay the 1 1/2 runs.

Good luck...Larry