Larry Ness

My free play is on St John's at 4:30 ET.

Georgetown's COVID-19 pause last winter actually saved its season, as Hoyas coach Patrick Ewing admitted he was able to self-scout during the downtime and make necessary lineup adjustments that helped propel Georgetown to a surprising Big East tournament title. However, the Hoyas don't seem to be headed for a late-season surge this season. Even after having four games postponed, Georgetown is still not at full strength and lost to both Marquette and Butler since returning to action. Head coach Ewing, as well as guards Dante Harris (13.0 & 3.8) and Donald Carey (12.8 &5.8) were all absent in a 72-58 loss to Butler on Thursday.

Georgetown is just 6-7 (0-2 Big East), as the Hoyas try to snap a three-game losing streak when they visit longtime rival St. John's (9-5, 1-2) on Sunday at MSG. The Red Storm are coming off an overtime loss at UConn on Wednesday. St. John's erased an 11-point second-half deficit and took a one-point lead with four seconds remaining in regulation on a three-pointer by star Julian Champagnie, but the Huskies tied the score on a foul shot and dominated overtime, winning 86-78.

Tyler Beard, who averages only 4.2 PPG, picked up some of the slack with 15 against Butler, but it wasn't enough. It remains unclear if Harris and Carey, who sat out with unspecified illnesses against Butler, will make the trip to Manhattan. Guard Mohammed leads the Hoyas in scoring (13.8) and rebounding (8.3), with fellow guard Rice (13.0), 6-6 forward Holoway (9.6 & 3.0) and 7-0 center Ighoefe (3.3 & 7.7) joining Mohammed and Beard in the starting lineup against Butler.

The 6-8 Champagnie is listed as a guard and leads St John's in scoring (21.2) and rebounding (7.3). The 6-11 Soriano (6.3 & 5.6) is the Red Storm's lone big man of note. Guards Alexander (15.4-4.6-4.9), Addae-Wusu (10.0-3.9-4.2), Mathis (9.3 & 4.5) and Smith (7.8) give St John's a deep perimeter group.

This Georgetown-St John's game doesn't have the cache of the John Thompson/Lou Carnesecca days but it's still a rivalry that both schools still "get up" for. In the "here and now," lay the points with St John's.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ut Jazz at 8:10 ET.

The Utah Jazz visited Denver back on Jan 5 and won 115-109, even with center Rudy Gobert in the NBA's health and safety protocols at that time. That gave them EIGHT wins in their last nine but the Jazz haven' won since, dropping FOUR in a row (also 0-4 ATS). However, with a four-day break and Gobert returning to the lineup, the 28-14 Jazz are optimistic that they can end their skid when they play at Denver on Sunday night. Nuggets will be playing their second straight home game in as many nights, after routing the Los Angeles Lakers 133-96 on Saturday night. Denver is 22-19 on the season, giving them the No. 6 seed (the last guaranteed playoff spot), as seeds 7-10 enter the "Play-In" round to determine the West's No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Gobert made his presence known when he returned to practice on Friday, and not just on the court. Gobert called out his team's play after watching five games, in particular what he saw as a lack of communication in games, habits that are more noticeable in the two top teams in the Western Conference. Gobert is having a terrific season, averaging 15,5 PPG and 15,1 RPG and is arguably the league's best defensive player. He'll rejoin a starting lineup featuring SG Mitchell (25.7-3.8-5.1) and PG Conley (13.9 & 5.3 APG) plus SF Bogdanovich (17.9 & 4.1) and PF O'Neale (7.3 & 5.0). Ingles (7.5) will return to coming off the bench along with last season's 6th-man-of-the-year, Clarkson (15.3). Note that Bogdanovic did most of the damage back on Jan 5, with 36 points and 13 rebounds.

Denver has had its issues, mostly with injuries and illnesses, and could be without two important pieces against Utah. JaMychal Green entered health and safety protocol on Saturday and Austin Rivers missed Saturday's game with a non-COVID-19 related illness. Add to that, the fact that Jamal Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8 LY) has yet to play a game (knee) and Michael Porter (back) was lost after just nine games (was averaging only 9.9 PPG, well below LY's 19.0 PPG). Last year's MVP Jokic (25.3-13.9-7.2) just keeps 'rolling along' and swingman Barton has stayed healthy, averaging 15.2-4.9-4.1). Starting up front with Nokic are Gordon (13.9 & 5.6) and Jeff Green (10.8 & 3.1) plus PG Morris (12.5 & 4.1 APG) has assumed Murry's role as PG. The Nuggets got some surprisingly strong play from Bones Hyland (8.7) against the Lakers, as he scored 27 points and added 10 rebounds) but it was Jokic (as always) who led the way with a 17-points, 12 rebounds and 13 assists, giving him EIGHT triple-doubles this season and 65 in his career.

However, unlike in the Jan 5 meeting, Jokic will have to contend with Gobert AND with an excellent Utah team looking to snap a four-game slide. The Jazz come in as the NBA's highest scoring team (115.1 PPG), as well as its top-shooting team (47.6%). Fatigue could be an issue for the home side tonight (rolled over the Lakers last night), while the Jazz come in having not played since Wednesday. Then there is the fact that Denver is just 7-13 vs opponents with a .500 record or better. Play the road favorite.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card O/U Game of the Year is on SF/Dal Under at 4:30 ET.

The San Francisco 49ers opened 2-0 but then lost four in a row (and five of six), to fall to 3-5. However, the 49ers closed on a 7-2 run, including winning 27-24 (in OT) at the LA Rams (trailed 17-0) to clinch the NFC's No. 6 seed at 10-7 in Week 18. The Dallas Cowboys lost their season opener 31-29 at Tampa (on a last second FG) but then won SIX in a row. Three losses in their next four followed but after a 36-33 OT loss to the Raiders in Dallas on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys would win four straight, lose 25-22 at home vs Arizona in Week 17 and rout the Eagles 51-26 in Philly in Week 18. Dallas finished 12-5, including an NFL-best 13-4 ATS. Dallas has Super Bowl 'dreams' but gets a tough matchup in San Francisco, which boasts a strong running game and a stronger run defense.

RB Mitchell has 963 yards on 4.7 YPFC with 5 TDs plus WR Deebo Samuel has run for 365 yards on 6.2 YPC with 5 TDs. The 49ers are averaging 127.4 YPG rushing (7th) and the running game has made it a little easier for the oft-criticized Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G should have answered his critics with excellent play down the stretch, finishing the season by completing 68.3% for 3,810 yards with 20 TDs and 12 TDs. WR Samuel was just named to the All-Pro team and it's well-deserved. His contributions to the running game have been HUGE, plus he's caught 77 passes with a 18.2 YPC average and 6 TDs. Fellow WR Aiyuk has 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Kittle caught 71 passes with 6 TDs, despite missing three games. The San Francisco D is allowing 21.5 PPG and is holding opponents to just 103.5 YPG on the ground (7th).

Dak Prescott is coming off a Week 18 game in which he completed 21 of 27 attempts for 295 yards and five TDs in just over three quarters of action. He's completing 68.8% for 4,449 yards with 37 TDs and 10 INTs, helping Dallas lead the NFL in scoring at 31.2 PPG. This year's team set a franchise record with 22 different players scoring at least one TD. The RB duo of Elliott (1,002 / 4.2 YPC / 10 TDs / 47 catches) and Pollard (719 yards on 5.5 YPC with 2 TDs) looks good on paper but I'll add a comment later. Lamb (79 catches / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs), Cooper (68 catches / 12.7 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wilson (45 catches / 6 TDs) plus TE Schultz (78 catches / 8 TDs) provide a plethora of options for Dak. The Dallas offense gets all the accolades but the team's defense is allowing 21.1 PPG (7th), while leading the NFL with 34 takeaways.

Zeke may have had a 1,000-yard season (no big deal with a 17-game schedule) and 10 rushing TDs but his 87 yards rushing in Week 18, was the first time he had more than 69 yards rushing in a game in his last 12 contests! Meanwhile, there might not be a more physical team than the 49ers and they match up well against Dallas because of their ground game and quick, short passing attack. Both teams play excellent defense and I see a much lower scoring game than the posted O/U line. Let's call it, "Under Downunder!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles opened the season 3-6 but then won SIX of seven to clinch a playoff spot, so their 51-26 loss at home to Dallas in Week 18 meant nothing. Coming off a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the 9-8 Eagles now set their sights on upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs on Sunday in Tampa. The 13-4 Bucs won the NFC South for the first time since 2007, behind their 'second-year' QB Tom Brady. Rumor has it that Brady previously played for the Patriots, achieving a certain level of success.

The two teams met back in Week 6 in Philly, as Brady passed for 297 yards and two TDs in a 28-22 Tampa Bay win. The Eagles intercepted him once but recorded no sacks and only three QB hits. The Philly D forced four, three-and-outs in that contest but Brady led two 75-yard TD drives to open the game and added two more long drives (72 and 79 yards) that ended in Leonard Fournette TDs runs. As for Tampa's defense, it held Philly QB Hurts to 115 yards on 12 of 26 passing in Week 6, with one TD and one INT, but he did score two second-half rushing TDs, earning the Eagles a 'backdoor cover!'

Hurts missed two games this season but entered having completed 61.3% for 3,144 yards with 16 TDs and 9 INTs. He's also the team's leading rusher, gaining 784 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs. The rreat news for Philly fans is that RB Sanders, who gained 754 yards on 5.5 YPC with 7 TDs (while missing FIVE games), said on Friday the he will "Absolutely" play on Sunday! The Eagles have the NFL's top rushing attack at 159.7 YPG. Heisman-winner Smith has 64 catches (14.3 YPC / 5 TDs), fellow WR Watkins has 43 catches (15.0 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Goedert checks in with 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Philly has excellent balance to its offense but will NOT have it easy vs a Tampa Bay defense allowing 20.8 PPG (5th) and one that ranks 3rd in allowing a modest 92.5 YPG on the ground.

Despite allowing 51 points in Week 18 to Dallas, the Philly D comes in allowing 22.6 PPG. However, one Tom Brady, has completed 67.5% for 5,316 yards (a career high), with 43 TD passes (tops in the NFL) with only 12 INTs. Fournette (812 yards on 4.8 YPC with 8 TDs) has taken over as the Bucs' featured back plus added 69 catches with two TDs. The bad news for Tampa Bay is that it won't have WRs Godwin (98 catches / 5 TDs) , who is injured, or Antonio Brown (fill in your own personal adjective here!). That duo combined for 14 catches, 136 yards and a touchdown in the Oct 14 win in Philly. However, Brady will have WR Evans (74 catches  with 14 TDs) and Gronk (55 catches / 6 TDs), despite missing five games.

Clearly, the overwhelming edge in experience for the game belongs to the Bucs. It's the playoff debut for first-year Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts, while Brady has nearly twice as many career playoff wins -- 34, an NFL record -- as Hurts has NFL starts (19). Brady is 34-11 in the postseason, including 20-4 at home. All that said, the passing game is already minus Godwin and A.B, plus RB Jones (428 yards) is out with an ankle injury and Fournette's hamstring injury makes him a game-time decision. 

If one remembers, the Bucs won but DID NOT cover in a wild card game last season at Washington and while this is a home, not a road game, I see the same scenario on tap. Hurts is no Brady but he can change a game with his running ability and I'm betting the Bucs will 'sweat' this game until the final gun. Or, like back in Week 6, the 'backdoor' may get left open! Take those points!

Good luck...Larry