Larry Ness

My 10* NLCS Game 7 Decider is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers came home from LA down 3-2 in the NLCS, after scoring just three runs in losing Games 4 and 5. The Brewers had managed only 16 runs (3.20 per) while batting .219 with a .653 OPS in the first five games of the series but 'exploded' for four-run first in Game 6, on their way to a series-tying 7-2 win. Milwaukee had 11 hits plus received six walks from LA pitchers. More importantly, Milwaukee finally got some timely hitting, going 5-16 with RISP.  David Freeze led off the game with a HR for LA but the team had just four more hits the rest of the way, scoring just one more run on an RBI double by Freeze. LA bats have been very quiet this series, as the Dodgers have scored a modest 18 runs through six games (3.00 per), while batting .210 with a .585 OPS.

The Game 7 pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from Game 3 of this series, LA's Walker Buehler and Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin. Buehler has had a terrific rookie season, making 24 regular season appearances (23 starts), posting a 2.62 ERA, an 0.96 WHIP and a .193 BAA. Buehler posted a 1.58 ERA over his last 11 starts of the regular season but has allowed nine ERs over just 12 innings in two playoff starts (6.75 ERA).  He gave up four runs on six hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings to suffer the loss in Game 3 on Monday, opposite Chacin.

Speaking of Jhoulys Chacin, the 10-year vet signed a two-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers in January, hoping to pitch in the postseason for the first time in his major league career. He has done more than his part to help fulfill that dream with an impressive regular-season in which he went 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA in a major league-best 35 starts. He even held the Cubs to a single run over 5 1/3 innings in the Game 163 tiebreaker that gave Milwaukee the Central Division title and the NL's No. 1 seed.  Chacin has been outstanding in his two postseason starts, allowing six hits and five walks across 10 1/3 scoreless innings, while recording a pair of wins.

Both teams came into Game 6 struggling offensively but it was Milwaukee which broke out of its slump. Why Not? After all, the Brewers finished with an NL-best 51-30 record at home during the regular season and have won four of five at Miller Park in the playoffs. Is Buehler up to the task? He's certainly shown no indication he is in his two postseason starts, so far. Plus, he posted a 3.45 ERA on the road as opposed to a 1.93 mark at home, during the regular season.Chacin has been 'MONEY' for Milwaukee all season, finishing 11th in the moneyline standings with a 23-12 team record in his starts (includes his Game 163 win), earning a profit of $1,079. He comes into this "winner-take-all" game having pitched 10 1/3 scoreless innings this postseason plus Milwaukee left-handed relief ace Josh Hader never entered Game 6's win thanks to a much-needed breakout performance by Milwaukee's offense. Hader's made six appearances during Milwaukee's 2018 playoff run and hasn't allowed a run while striking out 12 over seven innings. That's not reassuring news for the Dodgers, who have managed only four hits while striking out eight times in 18 at-bats over 4 2/3 innings against Hader during the NLCS!

This will be the 10th Game 7 in NLCS history, with the home team winning six of the previous nine matchups. Make that SEVEN of 10, after tonight's game!

Good luck...Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the San Antonio Spurs (10:05 EST).

The Blazers come in off an opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. 

San Antonio will look to take advantage and to build off its opening night win over the Wolves.

DeMar DeRozan had 28 points in his first game for San Antonio, while LaMarcus Aldridge had 21 points and 19 boards. 

The Blazers got 24 points from guard Nick Stauskas off the bench in their win over the Lakers. Portland would go on to earn the victory despite being edged 34-12 in fast break points.

I’ll point out though that San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Portland is just 17-23 ATS in its last 40 after allowing 115 points or more.

This one has the feel of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one to come out on top. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My free play is on LSU at 7:00 ET.

LSU opened the season ranked No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but wasted no time making its mark, taking down then-No. 8 Miami 37-17 at Arlington, Tx, as a three-point dog. The Tigers followed two weeks later with a 22-21 win at then-No. 7 Auburn, this time as a 10-point dog. Not to be undone, LSU won 36-16 last Saturday as a seven-point home dog against then-No. 2 Georgia. However, there is 'no rest for the weary' when one plays in the SEC. LSU is back at No. 5 in the latest AP poll but faces yet another ranked team this Saturday, as No. 22 Mississippi State visits Baton Rogue. The Bulldogs began the season ranked 18th and reached No. 14 after a 3-0 start but back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Florida dropped them out of the rankings. However, Miss St is back in, after a 23-9 upset of then-No. 8 Auburn on Oct 6. This rivalry is LSU's longest and Mississippi State's second, behind the Egg Bowl against the University of Mississippi. LSU leads the series 73–35–3, after winning 16 of the last 18 meetings.

The Bulldogs feature one of the best defenses in the country, allowing an FBS-low 12.7 PPG and ranking eighth in total defense at 289.7 YPG. Defensive lineman Montez Sweat leads the nation in sacks per game (1.25) and tops the SEC in total sacks (7.5). QB Nick Fitzgerald accounted for 264 yards of total offense and two TDs, rushing for 195 and two scores against the Tigers. Fitzgerald is the top rushing QB in SEC history and his 513 yards leads a running game that is averaging an SEC-best 240.7 YPG (18th in the nation).

In contrast to Miss St's run-oriented attack, LSU arguably has the most balanced offense in the nation, rushing and passing for the exact same number of yards (1,415) through seven games. The offense is averaging 32.0 PPG, ranking 52nd. The defensive unit is no slouch, ranking 17th in points allowed (16.9 per) on 340.3 YPG (33rd). Linebacker Devin White was named SEC Defensive Player of the Week after recording a season-high 13 tackles and recovering a fumble in the win over Georgia (he ranks third in the SEC with 66 total tackles and 9.4 per game).

Yes, Mississippi State has limited five of its six opponents to 14 points or fewer but LSU is averaging 37.5 PPG at home this season. It's also very likely that LSU remembers last year's meeting against Miss State in which the Bulldogs blasted the Tigers, 37-7, in Starkville, Ms. It was the most lopsided loss for LSU since Ed Orgeron took over as head coach four games into the 2016 season plus more notably, it was Miss St's largest margin of victory in the all-time series, which dates to 1896. MSU is just 3-7 ATS on the SEC road their last 10. Lay the points with LSU.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Ohio State/Purdue (7:30 EST).

The second ranked and unbeaten Ohio State Buckeyes have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Dwayne Haskins. 

Ohio State is so far 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten, most recently pulling away for a convincing 30-14 win over Minnesota. 

Haskins was 33 of 44 for 412 yards and three TDs. Coach Urban Meyer though thinks his team can play even better:

“I don’t think we played particularly well today. We’ll know more when we get a film grade, and I’ll let you know on Monday how they played,” Meyer said post-game. “We gave up three sacks. We have to keep Dwayne upright. Short yardage is not a strength. Red zone is not a strength, and running the ball is not a strength. That’s something we’ve got to get figured out.”

Purdue is 3-3 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, but it comes in on top form, having won three straight. 

Most recently the Boilermakers come in off a 46-7 win over Illinois this past Saturday. QB David Blough was 25 of 36 for 377 yards and three TDs and Purdue would roll up 611 yards of total offense, including 150 rushing yards from DJ Knox.

During the win streak Blough has been unstoppable, going for 1,001 yards and seven major scores. 

I’ll point out that Purdue has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 14 as a home underdog and in six of its last eight after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game, while Ohio State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight as a road favorite and in ten of its last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Two teams firing on all cylinders offensively collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a “shootout.” Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Tulane (8*) (3:30 EST)

This is an important game. Houston is going to likely win the conference, but the victor of this contest will be solidly in the second position. 

To say this is a “revenge” game for Tulane though would be a bit of an understatement, as SMU has won six of the last seven in the series.

SMU has had a week of to ponder its 48-20 beatdown at the hands of UFC. Overall the Mustangs are allowing 39.7 PPG.

Last week Tulane fell 37-21 to Cincinnati (who has since cracked the Top 25). Overall the Green Wave are averaging 379 YPG.

I’ll point out though that SMU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye, while Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 36 points or more in its previous contest.

Despite some of the QB issues that Tulane is going through, I think the Green Wave finds a way to get the job done at home in this crucial contest.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Akron 8* (3:30 EST).

Akron comes in hungry after dropping its third straight, most recently a 24-6 setback at Buffalo last weekend. A date against hapless Kent State is just what the doctor ordered for the Zips to get back on track though, as the Golden Flashes come in having lost five straight.

And if recent history is any precedence, then Akron has to be liking its chances today as it’s taken three straight in the series, including a 24-14 victory last season.

Akron is averaging 23.2 PPG and it’s conceding only 26.4. QB Kato Nelson struggled in last week’s loss, going just 12 of 29 for 115 yards and an INT. Overall though he has 980 yards passing, seven TDs and six INTs. 

Kent is averaging only 23 PPG and it’s conceding a whopping 36.6. QB Woody Barrett has 1,560 passing yards, to go along with seven TDs and eight INTs. 

Akron has its issues, but this a big opportunity which I believe it will make the most of. I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Akron is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ball State 8* (3:00 EST).

Ball State is 3-4 overall and 2-1 in the MAC West. The Cardinals though come in with plenty of momentum as they look to move back to .500, most recently rallying from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to knock off CMU last weekend 24-23. 

EMU held on for a 28-26 win last weekend, nearly squandering a 28-3 half-time lead, struggling after QB Mike Glass left with injury.

If Glass can’t play today (and if he does, one has to wonder about his health?!), then Tyler Wiegers would fill in. Last week he was 11 of 15 for 83 yards and he’s been decent with five TDs and just one INT this season.

Ball State still needs three more wins for bowl eligibility, so the home side will clearly have the “foot on the gas” from start to finish here as it looks to take advantage of this EMU team that’s dealing with some pretty major QB issues at the moment. 

Ball State has a solid receiving corps, led by Riley Neal, who has 40 catches for 546 yards. 

The Cardinals are averaging a very respectable 441.4 yards of offense a game, thanks in part to them running nearly 85 play on offense per contest.

I’ll point out as well that Ball State is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing fewer than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while EMU is a horrible 9-23 ATS in its last 32 following a SU victory.

For all the reason listed above, play on Ball State.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Michigan (12:00 EST).

Michigan State traveled to Ann Arbor last year and scored the 14-10 upset victory. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time!

Michigan looks to avenge that setback and it comes into this one on top form, having posted six straight victories after an Opening season loss to Notre Dame. 

Michigan State on the other hand looks poised for a classic “letdown” here in my opinion after a big win over Penn State last weekend.

Last week the Wolverines won 38-13 at home over Wisconsin. QB Shea Patterson had 124 passing yards, along with a season-high 90 yards rushing with a TD. RB Karan Higdon had 100 yards rushing as well. 

The difference maker today for me though is the Wolverines’ defensive unit, which limited Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook to 100 passing yards, one TD and two INT’s. Wisconsin came into that game averaging 30.3 points and 447.3 YPG.

MSU QB Brian Lewerke managed a TD pass to Felton Davis with 19 seconds left on the clock to score the 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions last weekend. But it wasn’t pretty, as Lewerke finished with a 22.8 QB rating and he was sacked three times, while the offensive line would additionally give up seven tackles for a loss. 

I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and only 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last against the conference.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Michigan.

Good luck…Larry