Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Fresno State +7.5
The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season. I think they're still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.
Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State. And he has made the most out of it. The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.
In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week. I'm not so sure that Fresno State isn't the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.
This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs. They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State. The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won't be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year's Bowl. I don't expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.
The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back. He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt. He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.
And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football. The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they've had to face Alabama and Washington.
Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU. Bet Fresno State Saturday.
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10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Arizona State +10)
The value here is with the Sun Devils as a double-digit dog once again. Arizona State is a team that continues to be undervalued, despite just beating the No. 5 team in the country. A big reason for that is they haven’t been a serious threat in the Pac-12 for years and were just 5-7 a season ago.
Utah is getting a lot of love for how they have played to start the year, most notably their near upsets in their last two games against Stanford and USC. What I think the public is overlooking here is that this is a really tough spot for the Utes.
They just laid everything they had on the line against the Trojans. To let a 14-point lead slip away and then miss an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point play is about as gut-wrenching a defeat as you will find. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a close defeat. Especially when it’s a game you think you should have won.
At the same time, I don’t know that the Utes would deserve to be laying more than a touchdown had they beat USC last week. I believe we are seeing Utah way overvalued simply because of the fact that they haven’t lost a game against the spread (5-0-1 ATS).
This is also a good matchup for Arizona State. While Utah’s defense is strong, they are much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Utes are just 77th against the pass compared to 30th against the run. Arizona State’s offense features the 25th ranked passing attack.
Let’s also not overlook how well Arizona State’s defense played against Washington. The Sun Devils held the Huskies to just 230 total yards and 14 first downs. The overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but that’s understandable given they have played the likes of Texas Tech, Oregon (prior to Justin Herbert getting hurt) and Stanford.
The Sun Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after holding their previous opponent to less than 20 points. I would take the points here, but also don’t hate a little extra on the money line. Give me the Sun Devils +10!
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Wyoming +14
The Boise State Broncos are getting too much love now after beating San Diego State 31-14 on the road last week as 4-point underdogs. But that was a misleading final as the Broncos were aided by a 53-yard punt return TD and a 34-yard fumble recovery TD to start the game. The numbers show that Boise State simply isn't a very good team. The Broncos have actually been outgained in four of their six games this season. Wyoming has turned the corner after a brutal early schedule with losses to Oregon and Iowa. They have won three straight coming in while covering the spread in all three. Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year. The Broncos will want revenge, but they should not be favored by two touchdowns here. The Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games, and 0-8 ATS as home favorites over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Take Wyoming.
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Syracuse Orange vs Miami Hurricanes Free Pick October 21, 2017.
Many expect Syracuse to suffer a let down coming off a dramatic upset win over Clemson last Friday, and perhaps that's why the line has been bet up several points since opening at +14.5. They will play at Miami, and the Hurricanes are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10. I wasn't exactly surprised by the Orange beating Clemson, in fact I bet on it. This team is for real, with a clutch quarterback surrounded by talent and speed, and a defense that has come a long way since last season. We've already seen them cover against Top 25 teams on the road at NC State and LSU. They haven't lost by double-digits in any of their games this season, and they are 5-0 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Eric Dungey has thrown for over 2000 yards and 12 TDs so far this season, and I think he's more than capable of keeping the Orange within two TDs at Miami.
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(339) Temple+ over Army (340) @ 12:00 Eastern
Saturday 3-4 Temple travels to West Point for a scrimmage with 5-2 Army. The visiting Owls have no victories over Football Championship units. Wins over East Carolina and UMass register FBS positives but, those units show 1-12 SU going into Saturday. The Owls are rebounding off a difficult 28-24 loss (which was on our ticket last Saturday) to UCONN. Whereas, the Cadets come in sporting a three-game winning streak over EMU, Rice and UTEP (3-16 SU on the season). Last year Army broke a six-game losing run to Temple winning 28-13.
Critical here will be the availability of Temple QB Logan Marchi (35-54, 356) who was injured last week at home in the Huskies battle. The youngster had a productive game and HC Geoff Collins has stated: “Marchi is expected to be ready.” The biggest problem for the Owls will be their ability to curtail the Army running attack. In 2016 Temple struggled at the line of scrimmage trying to handle the more physically demanding Cadets, and that was in Philadelphia. Looking at this from the emotional standpoint, Army has Air Force on the road next time out. So, Temple off that bad loss just might have enough in the tank to hang close, considering their trying to become bowl eligible. With Army 8-18-1 ATS off a SU win and Temple 37-17-1 ATS in October, take TEMPLE plus the points. Good Luck.
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1* Free Play on Idaho vs Missouri over 64 -120
Free Pick on Iowa/Northwestern OVER
I like the value here with the total sitting at less than 50 points for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Northwestern and Iowa. These two teams combined for 69 points last year with a total of just 44.5 and have combined for at least 50 in each of the last 3 meetings.
Iowa scored a season-high 45 against Illinois before going into their bye week and I look for the offense to have no problem scoring here against what I feel is a pretty average Northwestern defense. The Hawkeyes have a power running game that's going to be tough for the Wildcats to stop and that should open up the door for some big plays through the air against a Northwestern secondary that ranks 101st in the country, giving up 249.7 ypg.
I also think we haven't seen the best of what this Iowa offense has to offer, which is in the first year of a new starter. I look for the bye week to do wonders for sophomore quarterback Nathan Stanley, who has thrown 15 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions and could have a few more scores on some deep balls he's just overthrown.
The Hawkeyes have a strong defense like they have just about every year under Kirk Ferentz, but they aren't an elite unit this year and actually come in ranked just 70th in the country in total defense. I think both teams score well into the 20s and easily eclipse the mark. Take the OVER!
Jeff Allen's Free Pick for Saturday is on the Idaho Vandals
As we all know, Idaho is dropping out of the FBS to the FCS, going from the Sunbelt to the Big Sky. This is the last chance for the Vandals to stop a 32-game road losing streak vs. Power 5 schools and they couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent than Missouri who is in complete freefall and plays no defense. The Idaho QB is the Dallas Cowboy's OC's kid and he's a four-year starter with a rifle arm. Mizzou on a 4-11 ATS run while the Vandals are 7-0 ATS in their L7 roadies. Take the points.
Maybe this line is to good too be true, but I will bite here on it. I think this Baylor team is completely done with this season. They were destroyed last weekend @ Oklahoma St 59-16.
Baylor is giving up a terrible 9.1 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Baylor is being out gained by over 100 yards per game. I like the come back from behind on West Virginia last week which I believes carries over here to this game. Baylor is terrible and West Virginia should have no problem covering
DMack's Free Play for Saturday, October 21, 2017, is on the Arizona State Sun Devils
Don't look now but the Arizona State Sun Devils look like they are playing to save Todd Graham's job. After a slow 1-2 start, ASU has beaten Oregon and Washington at home as a double-digit dog and gave Stanford all it wanted in Palo Alto, easily covering the 17 point spread in a 10-point loss. The Pitchforks will never be more confident then they are here coming off 13-7 upset of No.5 UWub in a game where the defense held the Huskies to 36 points and 202 yards below their season average. Granted, Utah is 6-0 ATS this year, and has won and covered four straight in the series but ... last year's game was 28-26 late second half before the Utes pulled away with three gimme late scores. State not fat and happy after the Washington win and Utah really shouldn't be laying double-digits to anyone with their LACK OF EXPLODICITY on offense. Let's grab the points and say Utah 28-24.
New Mexico +7.5
The Lobos look to rebound from an embarrassing loss last time out.
This is the perfect chance to really get the fan base back on their side after a shutout loss to Fresno State.
New Mexico has gone 11-4 SU at home in their last 15 games and overall are 2-1 on the season there, averaging 40.7 points per contest.
They've also rebounded very nicely as of late from a loss. The Lobos are a perfect 4-0 ATS when failing to win in their previous game. This team typically can make solid adjustments during the week after a loss, which really enables them to recover the following week.
Some trends to note. Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Lobos are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
This is a nice bounce back spot for the Lobos.
Back New Mexico.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Friday 10-20-17
UNDER 60 Colorado State/New Mexico
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Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Cougars, at Cal, last week, the start of a 14-4 Fri/Sat/Sun streak. Washington State was "riding high," entering that game. The 6-0 Cougs had a top-ten ranking and were coming off victories over USC and Oregon. They'd close as -16.5 point favorites.
Then, Friday The 13th got them. Something did, anyway. The Cougs didn't show up and the Bears came away with a convincing 37-3 victory. Thats right. They beat the closing line by 50 points.
Off that rude awakening, I'm not sure that the Cougs are ready to be laying double-digits here. Colorado, which beat WSU by 14 points last season, is 9-4 ATS its last 13 true road games. Both this season's road games have been close, each decided by four or fewer points. Take a look at the visitors here.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #342 Take East Carolina Pirates over BYU Cougars (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) There is just no way BYU should be favored against any FBS team on the road. These are two bad teams and thus getting over 5 points is too good to pass up. BYU is 1-6 on the season and they have not been competitive in any of those losses. A few of those games the score made it look more competitive than it actually was. The Pirates have played a difficult schedule with four of their six losses coming against ranked teams. BYU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. BYU has major issues on offense and I just do not see them winning this game straight-up. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football card featuring top plays in college football and NFL. Easily hit our NFL Game of the Year last week and now have collected on five straight top plays in the NFL. Jump on board the victory train now!
Rating: 2 Unit NCAAF Free Pick
Syracuse shocked the collegiate football world last week, with a dominating 27-24 upset of then 2nd ranked Clemson. In that one, Clemson had to go it with an injured QB (Bryant), before he went out of the game, altogether. Certainly not the best of situations for Clemson. However, it was the Syracuse offense that was the story of the game, as it held 28-16 first down, 440-317 yard, & 83-57 play edges vs the Tigers' 8th ranked defense. When on, QB Dungey can excel both in the air and on the ground. Miami comes into this one off a miracle win over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech. This game spells TRAP
Missouri -13.5 1.1% Free Play
I like Missouri who loves to run the score up against non-power 5 schools. Idaho coming off a tough loss to Appalachian State at home as they blew a 20-0 lead. Idaho has lost 4 of their last 5 games and just aren’t a very good team on offense and they have struggled at points against good offenses. They will now go on the road to face a Missouri team who probably has the most balanced offense they have seen all year. As this offense can run, but also pass behind the arm of Drew Lock. Idaho on paper has the 39th ranked defense, but they have faced 1 team in the top 60 in yards per play and gave up 44 points. I think Missouri needs a feel good win here and could put up 50+.
Missouri since there bye has played a lot better. When you look at it they were actually tied vs. Georgia 21-21 in the first half last week before depth of Georgia took over. Drew Lock was actually really impressive in that game throwing 4 TD’s and only 1 INT on the road. The week before they nearly upset Kentucky on the road as a double digit dog as it was 34-34. Again Drew Lock seemed to show big improvements throwing 3 TD’s and 0 INT and the running game averaged 6.5ypc. Their biggest issue has been 15 turnovers and they go up against a team that has only forced 6 all year. They beat a non-power 5 school team this year 72-43. Last year they beat Eastern Michigan 61-21, Delaware State 79-0. With Lock playing with confidence I can see the offense playing with a balanced approach setting themselves up for 2 wins in a row with Uconn on deck.
1* Free Play on Oregon +7 -130
Mikey Sports FREE CFB play Friday 10-20-17
Colorado State -7 1/2
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This game features the 3-3 Tennessee at 7-0 Alabama. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS this season but this is a game I think they will cover easily. Their is a'lot on the line here for the Vols head coach Butch Jones one being his job especially if Alabama blows them out Saturday. The wheels have seemed to come off this team since the hailmary by Florida beat them a few weeks back. I think the books have over padded this line Bama has a huge rival game with LSU next week I see Tennessee giving them a little scare here as I think they keep this game kinda close. Take the points and play on Tennessee here for a 15* winner.***BE SURE TO CHECK OUT CHASE'S HUGE PLATINUM CLUB PLAY SATURDAY AS HE TRIES TO STAY WHITE HOT FOR HIS CLIENTS***
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Syracuse +17.5
The Key: I don't like backing teams off huge wins like the one Syracuse is coming off of against Clemson. But since that game was played on Friday, the team has had extra time to get over it. And if they were playing a bottom tier ACC team, I would look to fade them. But the Orange to get face highly ranked and unbeaten Miami this week. They will certainly be up for this game because of it. Miami is getting too much love for its unbeaten record. But the Hurricanes pulled off two straight late miracles to beat mediocre Florida State and Georgia Tech teams. I don't know what more Syracuse needs to do to prove it can play with elite competition and start getting respect from oddsmakers. The Orange have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. They only lost by 9 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, by 8 at NC State as 14-point dogs, and upset Clemson by 3 as 23-point dogs. And they had Clemson on the ropes even before they lost their starting QB just before half. This one will be closer than the books are expecting once again. Take Syracuse.