2011 New York Yankees Predictions
The New York Yankees went 95-67 in 2010, a season in which they topped the league in runs scored. They earned the wild card spot with a second-place finish in the AL East, but they have a good amount of questions coming into this season. We’re not saying they won’t make the playoffs for a 16th time in 17 seasons. But considering key veterans like Alex Rodriquez, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are all on the wrong side of their prime, the Pin Stripes will need the rest of their lineup to step up, plus get some kind of production out of the back of the rotation. Take a look below for my MLB predictions on the Yankees as to where they will end the year in the AL East.
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Projected Lineup
While New York still figures to have one of the top offenses in baseball, it doesn’t quite have that same punch it has in previous seasons. The Yankees made sure Jeter didn’t end up on another team this offseason, and all eyes will be on him going for his 3,000th hit this year. Jeter, however is coming off his worst season as a professional, hitting just .270. While we wouldn’t be shocked if he finished with a betting average in 2011, we don’t expect a huge season out of the veteran shortstop. Posada will take over as the DH this season, as the Yankees went out and added Russell Martin to take over behind the plate. Posada is another guy who just can’t have a whole lot left, but we also aren’t sold on Martin, who has really struggled the last two seasons. While Rodriquez is also on the decline, we still think he has enough pop left in his bat to be a big factor in this lineup. Rodriquez hit 30 home runs with 125 RBIs but hit a career-worst .270 as a starter. While he isn’t the player he once was, he is still one of the top hitters in the game.
The two guys to watch out for are second baseman Robinson Cano and first baseman Mark Teixeira. Both need to be a force in the middle of this lineup for New York to contend with Boston in the East. Cano put together and MVP-like season with a .319 average,29 home runs, 109 RBIs, and a Gold Glove. He finished third in the MVP voting, but another year like that and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him win the award. Teixiera didn’t quite live up to his first season with New York. He hit 33 home runs with 108 RBIs, but his averaged dropped from .292 to .256 and his OPS fell from .383 to .365. Left fielder Brett Gardner was a big bright spot in the lineup last season, and figures to be a great leadoff hitter for this lineup. Gardner finished with an .383 OBP and stole a team-high 47 bases. New York is hoping for much better year out of Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson. Both failed to deliver in 2010, but could surprise this year. Swisher is in the final year of his contract and wants to show New York he belongs on this team, while Granderson really got it going late in the year after he shortened up his swing, which has us thinking he will turn things around in his second season with New York.
Projected Rotation
With Sabathia and Hughes at the top of the rotation, the Yankees have two starters they should feel extremely confident in sending to the mound. Sabathia is 40-15 with a 3.27 ERA in his two seasons with the Yankees, and is without question the ace of this staff. Hughes was impressive last year, and wound up winning 18 games, but his late season struggles are a bit of a concern. Still we think he will be even better this season, and could reach the 20 win mark if he stays healthy. The rest of the pitching staff is full of question marks. A.J. Burnett has the stuff to be a great pitcher, but can’t seem to put it together. He went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA, and simply has to be better this year for New York to contend for a playoff spot. After Burnett, the Yankees will more than likely go with Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre, not exactly the big names we are use to hearing in the Yankees starting rotation. Nova was great in Triple-A last year, but had a 4.50 ERA in seven starts at the big league level, and it could be an up and down season in 2011. Mitre posted a solid 3.33 ERA in three starts and 24 relief appearance in 2010, and could be primed for a breakout season if given the shot to start on a consistent basis, but he hasn’t showed much as a starter in his career up this point.
2011 Projection: 2nd Place AL East
The Yankees are two starters away from being a shoe-in for the playoffs. That doesn’t even include the shaky Burnett, who must rebound from the worst season of his career. With Andy Pettite retiring, that puts a ton of pressure on the bottom end of this rotation. The Yankees best hope is that their powerful offense can carry the load until the best deal for a starting pitcher comes around before the trade deadline. Even then, the Red Sox may be too far in front to catch up. Age is creeping up on their most important hitters, and it appears the Yankees will be fighting for a wild card spot in 2011.
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