Dodgers & Phillies NLCS Predictions 2009
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Championship Series. The baseball lines show the favorites are the Dodgers at -120. Don’t miss out on any of the baseball picks offered by Freddy Wills throughout the rest of the playoffs and make sure you end up winning more of your bets. Dimes lines, a 50% signup bonus and a $25 FREE Bet, what more could you want out of Sportsbook.com!
Pitching
As of Tuesday morning the starting pitchers have still not been declared but it looks like Cole Hamels will make the start for Philadelphia.
Overall the Dodgers have the edge as they led the Majors not only in overall ERA, but in bullpen ERA. On the flip side the Phillies were ranked 7th overall and 13th out of their bullpen. The weaknesses are distinct in the bullpen as the Phillies had a lot of questions on who would be closing out games, but those queries have all been answered if you believe Lidges 2 saves were the real deal against the Rockies.
We will probably see Wolf, Padilla, and Kershaw, and possibly Garland or Billingsley if the Dodgers decide to go to a 4 man rotation which is what squads commonly do at this point. While the Phillies will go with Hamels, Lee, Happ, Martinez, and maybe Blanton. So we have 5 probable pitchers on each side.
Dodgers SP who might struggle:
Randy Wolf – who will be the ace of the Dodgers once more gave up 6 ER in Dodgers Stadium in June to the Phillies on 6.1 innings and 8 hits. However, the Phillies are hitting just .261 off Wolf and Wolf owns left-handed hitters which the Phillies have abundance of.
Jon Garland – Phillies are hitting .309 off him and in two starts this year one, at home and once on the road, he went 11.1 IP allowing 8 ER on 16 hits.
Phillies SP who might struggle:
Joe Blanton - Dodgers sluggers have a .295 average off Blanton in 129 AB. However, Blanton pitched solid in his 1 start vs. the Dodgers as he went 6.1 innings and gave up just 1 ER.
Edge: Dodgers
Hitting
Both of these squads have first ballot hall of famers in the center of their lineups in Manny Ramirez and Ryan Howard. It can be argued that Utley is also a Hall of Famer. Their are two extreme divergences between these teams and that is power vs. average. The Phillies are ordered #21 in average while the Dodgers are in the top 5 at #4 in the majors. Does that mean the Dodgers are the better offensive team? No, not necessarily. Sometimes in these big games what matters is clutch hitting and a home run late in a game.
The Phillies have the edge in the power category as they have 224 HR compared to 145 for the Dodgers. I think the Dodgers have more power than many believe, but it will come into play in this series. While the Dodgers play small ball the Phillies can smash a 3 run HR for a quick offensive explosion. Small ball in my opinion does not always transform into big clutch hitting. If we are talking selective clutch hitting you have to give it to the Phillies who came from behind with 2 outs and trailing 4-2 in Game 4 to win 5-4. It was the middle of the lineup that got it done in Howard and Werth.
Edge: Even
Bench
Whenever you have two strong players coming off your pine like Jim Thome or Juan Pierre you have the two ingredients of a bench player that you require. Juan Pierre is a player that can get on base and perhaps steal a base. Jim Thome is a guy who can come in a key match up and hit a HR to tie or get your team the lead. Philadelphia on the other hand have Miguel Cairo, Ben Francisco and Matt Stairs none of which should scare the steady Dodgers bullpen.
Edge: Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers in 6 games – Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of this series when they are at home. Philadelphia’s bullpen will really damage them in this match up. The Phillies took advantage of the Rockies weakness vs. LHP and this won’t be the case against the Dodgers as LA hit .270 vs. LHP and RHP, but score +.59 more runs per 9 innings vs. lefties than RHP. Bottom line pitching wins championships and the Dodgers with their pen have the major advantage!
