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Baseball Totals Betting

One of the most overlooked aspects of MLB gambling is baseball totals betting.  This is a big area of the sport and one that you need to get a hold of to maximize profits.  Last week I looked at a few key trends and stats in baseball and tried to find some reasons behind why they are important. One thing that is not surprising is that the New York Yankees are leading the majors in runs scored. What is surprising is that they also lead the American League in pitching with a 3.84 team ERA, but pitching still appears to be a major weakness on this team over the long haul.

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The thing that is the most remarkable about the Yankees is that they have ripped opponents by the combined score of 80-52, yet the Bronx Bombers are just 6-6. One thing that stands out is that they are 0-3 in one-run games. By contrast, the new-look Red Sox (pitching and defensive-oriented) are 9-4 despite outscoring their opponents by a mere five runs. The Sox are 6-1 in games decided by one or two runs and 5-0 when they score four runs or fewer.  Who knows how this will stack up over the course of an entire season.

Granted, it's still early, but by examining trends like this we can explain many things from a handicapping point of view. Boston is 7-4-1 UNDER the total the last 12 games, which makes sense because the offense is not as good as recent years, but their pitching and defense is very strong. Boston is No. 2 in the AL in team ERA (3.87). The powerful Yankees offense is a big reason they are 8-4 over the total, a trend that is likely to continue, especially if their pitching comes back to the pack. Get ready for a lot of high scoring Yankee games as the weather gets warmer and the season progresses!

Behind those teams, the surprising Detroit Tigers have the third-best team ERA in the American League at 3.87. Newcomer veteran Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth have been very good as starters, a combined 5-2. The trio has good control and giving the team 6-7 innings each start. They are a big reason the Tigers are 8-3 under the total, too.

The Atlanta Braves are 9-3 over the total and the big surprise to everyone is how bad their pitching has been. Their 5.72 team ERA is second worst in the NL, a big contrast to the years past! John Smoltz and John Thomsen have pitched well, but starters Kyle Davies, Tim Hudson, Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez have been completely awful. Do they miss longtime pitching coach Leo Mazzone? Mazzone moved on to the Orioles this off-season, but the Orioles pitching has a 5.12 team ERA and is in the middle of the pack in the AL, and their 61 walks is the most in baseball. Maybe he just needed to be in Atlanta with his man Bobby Cox.

Toronto has to be delighted with the offensive performances of newcomers Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus, who are both hitting over the .300 mark. The improved offense is a reason why the Blue Jays are 8-3 over the total averaging 6.2 runs per game. And speaking of totals, the Cincinnati Reds are 8-4 over the total. Is this a fluke? Nope: The Reds lead the league in home runs and slugging, while the pitching is 12th in the 16-team National League. It's important to sift through the facts between trends and statistical anomalies. If there are solid reasons behind trends, they can continue to be betting angles to keep a close eye on.