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2006 New York Yankees Predictions

With our 2006 New York Yankees predictions you can once again expect this team to contend for their division with the Redsox, and you can expect them to be one of the most potent lineups in baseball. What you can’t expect is to make a lot of money by betting on the Yankees. The New York Yankees derive more public attention than any other team by far, which drives the value of betting on them way down. It’s a startling statistic that the Yanks have won 60% of their games over the past 7 seasons, but are –60 units. They may win the majority of their games, but when they lose, Yankee supporters take huge hits because of the juice. I would heavily advise staying away from the pin stripes unless you are betting against them.

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The Yankees had their worst season in recent history last year, totaling just 97 wins in the regular season despite having one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had and finishing strong to take the AL East. They were once again a disappointment in the playoffs, however. I don’t anticipate Johnny Damon being a player who can single-handedly put this team back over the hump. The Yankees did need a center fielder, but acquiring Damon almost seems like an under-handed move by the Yankees to take one of Boston’s most beloved players away from them.

This lineup is the most potent in all of baseball with Damon setting the table followed by the likes of Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, and a great young talent in Robinson Cano.  The team has 9 guys that could get to 100 RBIs or 100 runs scored.  ARod won the MVP with a .321 average and 48 home runs, while Giambi and Sheffield both put more than 32 out of the park.  There isn’t another lineup in baseball that can compete with these guys, and you’ll see some inflated totals this season as such.

On paper this staff looks tough with Randy Johnson, Mike the Moose Mussina, and Carl Pavano.  New guys like Wang and Chacon if they can step up will round out this rotation.  The questions come as to whether RJ, and Moose are too old to go an entire season effectively, and Pavano has struggled with injury problems in the past.  The bullpen is loaded with talent, ending with the most dominant closer maybe in the history of the game with Mariano Rivera.  Farnsworth will be a nice addition to the set up role, but we will have to see how the other guys perform.

Here are some things to consider when evaluating your betting opportunities on the Yankees. The Yankees have been victorious in an overwhelming 63% of their games played at Yankee Stadium the last 7 seasons and they have torched interleague opponents on their home diamond, boasting 51 wins in 72 games. In stark contrast, they fall to just 49% away from Yankee Stadium in interleague play. I think some of the huge gap in winning percentages has to do with the different styles of play in each league, and some has to do with the Yankees being a great home team with the best players money can buy. National League teams do tend to struggle when using a designated hitter as most teams don’t have a worthy bat to stick in the position where as the majority of American League teams have power hitters in the spot.

Keeping in mind these numbers, you may be able to find some value betting against the Yankees as road favorites in interleague play. You could have found some value betting against them when they were playing division rivals last season as following this trend would have gained you 12 units. But I don’t anticipate this trend to carry over as strongly this season.

Find spots to go against the Yankees in 2006. Often times their legacy gets in the way of the present state of the team and bookmakers give bettors some excellent odds.  

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